Small fronts and lows bring some minor S swell pulses to the NE corner later this week, before high pressure drifts across the Island and brings calm conditions. A few small swell sources are possible but in general we’re looking at a quiet period.
Building swells today will peak overnight and then gradually ease through Thursday, though trailing SW winds behind the front will maintain poor conditions down south.
High pressure is now close to New Zealand, with an advancing trough and cold front bringing a fresh S’ly change, expected to generate a strong SE surge up the sub-tropical coast as a new high moves into the Bight and strengthens. Once the new high high moves into the Tasman over the weekend it’ll set up a blocking pattern but we’re expecting a few small S pulses leading up to that although winds look fickle. E’ly trade-wind swells continue at small levels into the short/medium term.
High pressure is now close to New Zealand, with an advancing trough and cold front bringing a fresh S’ly change, expected to generate a strong SE surge up the sub-tropical coast as a new high moves into the Bight and strengthens. Once the high moves into the Tasman over the weekend it’ll set up a blocking pattern but we’re expecting a few small S pulses leading up to that although winds look fickle. E'ly swell from persistent tradewind fetches should continue as a fun background source of swell.
There'll be two additional swells in the water though I don't think they'll contribute much size to the region.
We’ve got two new swells for the weekend, in addition to the existing, easing swell from Friday.
Keep an eye out for super long period W/SW swell from an African storm we mentioned last week. These swell periods will be in excess of 20 seconds, through Thurs into Fri. Not the main swell source but still supplying some long range energy into the mix.
In short, it's looking to be a small, windy week across the South Arm.
Once the SE surge becomes established Fri into the weekend we’ll see another round of fun sized E/SE swell developing, likely into the 2ft range Sun/Mon and holding at that size before easing Tues/Wed as the SE wind field contracts to the North, away from the CQ swell window.
We’ve got another slow moving pattern on our hands to start the week with a high pressure belt at sub-tropical latitudes directing a W’ly to NW’ly flow across the state and a very zonal (W-E) storm track tracking through the far southern Tasman Sea.
