Large stormy conditions continue into this weekend wth only brief periods of respite

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

Western Australia Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon July 25th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • XL groundswell building Sun, peaking later with strong but easing SW winds, shifting W in the South West (lighter S/SE-SE in the AM Perth and Mandurah - variable into the afternon Perth)
  • Easing swell Mon with strengthening NW winds (mod-fresh N/NE early Perth and Mandurah)
  • Strong N/NW tending W/SW winds Tue
  • XL groundswell for Wed with variable winds (E'ly offshore in the morning Perth and Mandurah)
  • Easing swell Thu with strengthening NE winds
  • Strong rebuild Fri with XL surf over the weekend and onshore winds
  • More onshores next week as fronts reach sub-tropical latitudes

Recap

Massive surf from Sun into today with size in the 12-15ft between the Capes, smaller 3-5ft in Mandurah and 4ft in Perth . Winds are mod NW down at Margaret’s, more N’ly in Perth and Mandurah, with an early window of NNE winds reported.

This week and next week (Jul 25 - Aug5)

No change to the short term outlook. We’ll be between swell tomorrow but size will still be large with sets to 8-10ft in the SW corner, smaller 3-4ft in Mandurah and 3ft in Perth. Early winds may tend NNE north of Mandurah, fresh NW in the Margarets region, before the passage of the front sees winds swing hard W/SW to SW through the a’noon. Sheltered spots only. 

The next large swell sees surf to 8-10ft, possibly 12ft sets between the Capes, smaller 3-5ft in Mandurah and 3ft in Perth, with a light E’ly flow now more likely as high pressure ridges in under the state. That will see large rideable surf for the experienced.

Winds will tend N to NW as a small trough in advance of a front passes over the SW corner Thurs, with a window of NNE winds more likely from Busselton north to Perth. We’ll see easing but still solid sets to 8ft in the SW, backing down in the day. Smaller 3-4ft surf in Mandurah and 2-3ft in Perth. 

That front is tied to another deep low, driving a large area of seas between 20-30ft towards WA. Proximity equals size with another extended period of large to XL wave heights expected to build in Fri up, into the 12ft+ range in the exposed SW corner, smaller 3-5ft in Mandurah and 3ft in Perth. 

Hard-core onshore winds associated with the front battering WA see W’lies establish Fri and blow all weekend. You’ll have to head to the most sheltered winter spots to get a wave.

A semi-stationary storm force low lingering well to the south of WA (see below) brings a powerful pulse of very S’ly angled swell Sun, in the 10-12ft range, smaller 3ft in Mandurah, 2ft in Perth. This should ease Mon with a high moving quickly through the WA interior bringing a brief period of NE winds before the next front hits. Expect those N’lies to to tend NW through the later a’noon in the SW corner.

Longer term and the active Indian Ocean storm pattern continues although with smaller swells than the current series.

Expect onshore winds and moderate large swells to impact the WA SW land division early next week with fronts extending as far north as Carnarvon.

Check back Wed for a fresh update.

Comments

nicko74's picture
nicko74's picture
nicko74 Monday, 25 Jul 2022 at 6:32pm

This looks like the first proper winter blow for 2022

t-diddy's picture
t-diddy's picture
t-diddy Tuesday, 26 Jul 2022 at 12:28pm

yea crazy! mildest winter ever