Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday June 22nd)

Best Days: Later Friday Surf Coast, Saturday and Sunday mornign Surf Coast, Monday Surf Coast

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Low point in swell tomorrow with strong N/NW winds
• Building mix of mid-period and W/SW groundswell later Friday, peaking Sat with a reinforcing pulse for Sun
• Fresh NW tending W/NW winds Fri, gusty N/NW-NW Sat, then stronger W/NW tending W/SW-SW Sun
• Weak SW swell building Sun PM
• Easing mix of swells Mon with W/NW winds, smaller Tue with N/NW winds

Recap

Unfortunately the small, flukey mid-period W’ly swell due through yesterday didn’t really materialise across either region, clean on the Surf Coast but tiny to flat.

Today there’s a little more energy but we’re only talking 1-2ft sets on the Surf Coast (inconsistent) with the beaches to the east coming in a little cleaner and to 3-4ft. Winds will shift more NW this afternoon as the swell eases, creating average conditions.

This week and weekend (Jun 23 - 26)

The current small westerly swell will ease into tomorrow and winds will straighten up from the N/NW, being fresh to strong all day adding bumps and chops to the Mornington Peninsula, cleaner on the Surf Coast but tiny.

We then look forward to the mix of W/SW swell energy due through Friday afternoon and the weekend, with an initial strong but distant low in the southern Indian Ocean generating some infrequent W/SW groundswell. This low has since weakened while moving east but we’re still seeing a good fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds projected towards us, with a strengthening of the progression forecast under the country tomorrow afternoon and evening.

This will produce a consistent, mid-period W/SW swell that will be most evident Friday afternoon and Saturday.

Friday morning and early afternoon will likely be slow and small but we should see the Surf Coast building to 3-4ft by late in the day, though most convincing Saturday and to 4ft as the swell proper peaks. With the long-range groundswell in the mix we’ll likely see the very inconsistent bigger set to 5ft on the magnets Saturday. To the east 6ft+ surf is due with small waves in protected spots.

Conditions will be great on the Surf Coast with fresh NW tending W/NW winds, easing into the afternoon and then gusty N/NW-NW breezes all day Saturday.

This northerly will be ahead of a deepening low moving in from the west with strong W/NW tending W/SW-SW winds due on Sunday as it pushes east.

Size wise, another good fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds pushing in behind tomorrow’s front will keep the swell up around a similar size, 4ft mostly on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ to the east.

The low itself is expected to bring a localised increase in SW swell later Sunday but with that onshore breeze and weaker than the existing energy.

We’ll see the low clear quickly to the east overnight Sunday, allowing winds to tip back to the W/NW on Monday with a mix of easing swells from the 3-4ft range on the Surf Coast, 5-6ft to the east.

Looking longer term, the swell will continue to ease through Tuesday with a possible new mid-period W/SW swell for Wednesday, though again we’re still not looking at any major Southern Ocean frontal activity.