Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 21st February)

Best Days: Wednesday morning, early Thursday for the keen, mid-late next week on the beaches

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate sized, mid-period S/SW swell tomorrow with moderate SE tending fresh S/SE winds
• Easing swell Wed with light N'ly (locally offshore winds) ahead of SE sea breezes
• Small, building W/SW swells Thu with variable tending freshening S winds
• Easing surf Fri with fresh S/SW tending S/SE winds
• Building SE windswell through the weekend with strong E/SE tending SE winds
• Fun swells with improving winds for the beaches mid-late next week

Recap

Friday afternoon's large mix of swells eased a touch into Saturday morning but there were still large sets reported across the peninsula to 8ft, with waves more to 4-5ft on the Surf Coast. A moderate onshore wind created bumpy conditions but this eased off through the morning and remained fairly light through the day allowing conditions to slowly improve.

Yesterday was great with a moderate sized mixed of swells, consisting of some reinforcing energy and 3-4ft sets on the Surf Coast with large surf to the east.

This morning the swell is still a good size with some new, mid-period SW swell filling in though lumpier conditions on the Surf Coast. Conditions are now deteriorating as a freshening W/SW breeze moves in.

This week and weekend (Feb 22 - 27)

Today's slow deterioration in winds and conditions is linked to a cold front clipping the state, and with it we'll see a continuation of moderate sized, mid-period S/SW swell across the state.

This front has projected a great fetch of strong to near gale-force SW winds through our swell window and this should keep the Surf Coast around 3-4ft tomorrow with 4-6ft sets to the east.

With the clearing of the front to the east this evening, a drop in size is then due through Wednesday from 3ft on the sets across the Surf Coast (2-3ft mostly) with easing 4ft+ waves to the east.

Winds won't be too ideal tomorrow with a moderate SE'ly, strengthening from the S/SE into the afternoon, with much better conditions Monday morning under a light local N'ly offshore (N/NE Mornington Peninsula and N/NW Surf Coast) ahead of SE sea breezes.

On Thursday we may see an early period of variable winds, though a trough will bring a S'ly change through the morning which will freshen into the afternoon.

Swell wise, a fleeting pulse of mid-period W/SW energy is due to build through the day and ease Friday, generated by a tight and strong but poorly aimed mid-latitude low pushing in and under Western Australia this afternoon and evening.

A pre-frontal fetch of NW gales will be too off axis for us, with a trailing fetch of weaker SW winds not being too favourable either for swell generation. Size wise the Surf Coast should build to 2ft+ into the afternoon but with that freshening onshore breeze, with 4ft+ sets to the east, easing from 2ft and 3ft to possibly 4ft respectively on Friday morning. A fresh S/SW tending S/SE breeze will continue to create poor conditions into Friday though with strong E/SE-SE winds kicking in for the weekend as a strong high slowly slides in from the west and under us.

A deepening inland surface trough will squeeze the high from the north-east and this looks to dominate our wind and surf outlook into next week.

The one plus is that we'll see winds slowly improve and tending more E to NE through mid-late next week with a couple of fun swells in the mix as healthy polar fronts push in and under the high.

The first of these is due Tuesday with follow ups Wednesday through Friday to 3ft on the sets across the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ to the east. There'll also be some local SE windswell this weekend and early next week on the Surf Coast, but more on this Wednesday.