Big week of waves ahead 

James KC

Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by James Casey (issued Monday 24th May)

Best Days: Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday and windy but big for the weekend

Outlook:

  • Larger E swell from Tuesday onwards, ebbing and pulsing until Friday
  • Pulse of E/SE swell and new S swell building on Friday 
  • Large S swell for the weekend peaking on Saturday and then again on Sunday late/Monday early
  • Conditions to ease from Tuesday onwards

Recap

A mostly small weekend of waves starting out of the S and becoming more SE as the weekend went on. Conditions were best early with light offshore winds before they tended out of the S each afternoon making things a bit bumpier.

Today we have a peaky 2ft E swell with light winds early although winds will turn around to the NE later this afternoon. 

This week 

Well have a week of serious surf on the cards. A solid E swell from the low pressure system north of NZ has already been generated and is heading our way. While it isn’t aimed all that well for S NSW we will still see solid surf. Later in the week we will see another solid S pulse arriving thanks to yet another low located west of the South Island. 

The E swell will arrive overnight but build into the afternoon with a widespread 4-5ft expected. The swell will rise fairly rapidly thanks to the gale force winds on the southwestern flank of the low north of NZ. 

It will then be sustained by a SE swell thanks to SE winds funnelling out of the Cook Strait on the southeastern flank of the low. This means we will see the swell pulse and ebb throughout the week but generally remain around that 4ft+ mark. After the peak on Tuesday afternoon we will see some slight easing on Wednesday into Thursday with waves down around the 3-4ft mark before another E/SE pulse arrives early on Friday bumping wave heights back up around 3-5ft with a new S swell building throughout the day.

Winds will be fairly strong out of the N tomorrow (Tuesday), starting NW early but tending NE and strengthening in the afternoon. Wednesday will see strong NW winds early shifting more W as the day goes on while Thursday has W/SW winds for most of the day. Friday will be the windiest day with SW winds early strengthening out of S/SW by the middle of the day.

The weekend and beyond

The new S swell will really ramp up late on Friday into Saturday morning as a low forms to the west of NZ and squeezes the isobars on a ridge in the Tasman. 

Strong to moderate gales will whip up a solid S swell peaking around 8-10ft on Saturday before easing a bit into Sunday morning. WInds will be strong out of the S/SW so southern corners will be your only option.

Another pulse of S/SE swell will arrive on Sunday afternoon/Monday morning ramping wave heights back up towards 6-8ft although once again winds will be strong out of the S/SW.

The low will start to breakdown on Monday as it moves over NZ allowing conditions to begin to ease into the start of the new week. A high looks to move over the east coast bringing lighter winds and generally more settled conditions from Tuesday onwards. 

Comments

evosurfer's picture
evosurfer's picture
evosurfer Monday, 24 May 2021 at 3:40pm

Yippee yahoo now thats a surf report I like reading.

Parko_70's picture
Parko_70's picture
Parko_70 Monday, 24 May 2021 at 5:10pm

According to the models atm 15 to 18 foot Saturday morning for the Illawarra. Surely that is a gee-up?

Bumpy's picture
Bumpy's picture
Bumpy Monday, 24 May 2021 at 8:46pm

You beauty, we’re holding a surf comp on Sunday it’s going to pump!!! Been waiting for this for a while.

pancakecollaroy's picture
pancakecollaroy's picture
pancakecollaroy Tuesday, 25 May 2021 at 7:04am

Does it look like the swell is early or is it still expected to keep building into the arvo?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 25 May 2021 at 7:32am

Looks early, probably peaking this AM.

Mcface's picture
Mcface's picture
Mcface Tuesday, 25 May 2021 at 9:01am

Why do you reckon the early timing? Possibly because the period is stronger than the model forecast (and hence quicker travel time) or do you think the system just developed across the cook strait earlier?

I was going to go for a paddle this morning expecting to bring my small wave twinny for a couple of inco 2-3footers, ha! Glad I slept in instead as looks like it started maxing pretty quickly.

Looks like the forecast was spot on for NNSW/SEQ though.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 25 May 2021 at 9:11am

Yeah rapid intensification of the low and that long period energy racing in across the Tasman Sea. Usually happens with these systems within our swell window, the bulk of swell arrives with the peak in period instead of the lag seen in the southern states.

Mcface's picture
Mcface's picture
Mcface Tuesday, 25 May 2021 at 9:30am

Well explained, thanks Craig.

tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden Tuesday, 25 May 2021 at 7:02pm

Craig, the Swellnet modelling shows an increase in size and period tomorrow (Wednesday) morning.
Other sites showing a decrease in both...what do you reckon??

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 25 May 2021 at 7:07pm

It'll be easing, models are mixing up the long-period energy and shorter-period energy.

tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden Tuesday, 25 May 2021 at 7:26pm

Ok, I'll go with that.
Your models though are showing a big jump in long period intensity, approx increase of 2.2s which I would equate to an increase in size by 4 ft or so.
I know there is a limit to what technology can predict but that's a pretty big discrepancy to the reality

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 26 May 2021 at 7:41am

Hmm, I can't see it, just steady 11s?

tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden Wednesday, 26 May 2021 at 9:03am

I should have taken a screenshot but your model said 1.4m at 9.3s 6pm Tues, 1.5 at 11.8 6am Wed very similar direction, slightly more to the south by a couple of degrees.That’s a big increase, in my mind that would equate to 2-4ft bigger but obviously it’s smaller this morning.
Don’t know whether you can tweak the technology or just note that it was wrong this morning

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 26 May 2021 at 9:12am

Agh, yep that's that mixing of swell and the model struggling to resolve the incoming energy, as it did with yesterday's large, long period pulse.

There's a new mid-period pulse due late afternoon today and again later tomorrow ahead of the tricky groundswell late Friday.

tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden's picture
tylerdurden Wednesday, 26 May 2021 at 9:34am

No drama this morning but I’m frequently on the dawn patrol and aim to be the first guy in the water. The prediction helps with the pre-dawn choice of spot...other website(s) I think are more accurate for that info but don’t have forecaster notes or comments.
No real complaint but the feedback might help you tweak the technology

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 26 May 2021 at 10:01am

Yep, thanks Tyler.

geoffrey's picture
geoffrey's picture
geoffrey Tuesday, 25 May 2021 at 2:03pm

punched welllll above forecast around wollongong

epictard's picture
epictard's picture
epictard Tuesday, 25 May 2021 at 5:24pm

It was bigger than anticipated, but a few fun ones out there.

sean killen's picture
sean killen's picture
sean killen Tuesday, 25 May 2021 at 6:06pm

There was signs yesterday arvo .. good shape fun ones .. was expecting a slow building swell today.. big surprise. No takers at my local today.. especially when NE wind kicked in .. better conditions ahead forecasted..

vbabin's picture
vbabin's picture
vbabin Tuesday, 25 May 2021 at 9:02pm

Shark island cam was so sick to watch this morning some absolute insanity goin on

evosurfer's picture
evosurfer's picture
evosurfer Wednesday, 26 May 2021 at 8:09am

Early Tuesday my local point had very thick 6-8ft bombs and the Island
standing up even bigger. Caught me out after planning my work around
a 3ft day. Not complaining just needed some quick adjustment.

willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler Wednesday, 26 May 2021 at 4:34pm

Has anyone got the footage of when mason and mick surfed south of the gong

willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler Wednesday, 26 May 2021 at 4:35pm

Found it dw

epictard's picture
epictard's picture
epictard Wednesday, 26 May 2021 at 7:04pm

Are you trying to redirect potential crowds away from your local for the coming swells?
Give them a sniff of potential and let them flock away? I like it, keep up the good work.

With one caveat ... the stragglers will descend upon the surrounding breaks less capable of holding a big crowd.