A seemingly endless supply of reasonably strong Southern Ocean lows will move track parallel to the ice shelf all week, supplying pulsey groundswell for our region throughout the medium to longer term period.
We’ve got a light pressure pattern across the coast for the rest of the week, so the mornings are looking clean-ish with light variable winds ahead of afternoon sea breezes.
On Friday, a tropical system is expected to begin slowly deepening south from Tonga, before driving south through our distant east swell window. More in the Forecaster Notes.
There isn’t a great deal of excitement expected for the next few days. However, a tropical system is expected to begin slowly deepening south from Tonga on Friday, and will generate a long lived E/NE swell event next week.
The key difference for the next few days is that these mid-week swells should provide a little more size across Perth and Mandurah coasts thanks to a better swell direction .
Although the synoptics look very impressive, this low is travelling a little more north in latitude than is ideal and this will impact size potential through the South Arm.
There’s a lot of interesting features on the long term charts.
There’s a lot of interesting features on the long term charts, some of which are quite plausible, and some of which are much less certain and require a variety of circumstances to eventuate. More in the Forecaster Notes.
I really like the look of this system, its position relative to the coast is in the ‘goldilocks’ zone for the South Coast at least, reaching peak intensity between Margaret River and Adelaide longitudes, beginning to weaken as it approaches Victorian latitudes.
So, first day back in the Victorian driver’s seat for a while, and what do we have? Let’s take a quick look at the available data to see if the model guidance is still stacking up. More in the Forecaster Notes.
