A deep polar low is tracking NE from E of Heard Island today, with a long trailing fetch of SW gales and seas in excess of 20ft in a wide swathe. Iterations of this storm system will bring strong pulses of SW swell over the next few days and into the weekend, with onshore winds a problem. 

NE swell from the bottom end of the fetch is now looking a bit weaker and less persistent for East Coast Tasmania.

The outlook for early next week has improved a lot, thanks to a subtle shift in the timing of the main frontal passage.

No great changes to the front end of this weather/surf event, which is starting to kick into gear now. The latter stages have been wound back a few notches, reducing the expected wave heights over the peak of the swell, so let’s take a look at it.