Average waves for the short term; late next week looks fantastic
Southeast Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 6th June)
Best Days: Thurs: good SE swell with improving conditions. Fri/Sat: strong SE groundswell with good winds/weather.
Recap: Tiny waves both days. I've been waiting for the first few signs of a small anticipated E/SE swell this afternoon (of which confidence was low on the timing), but it doesn’t seem to have arrived yet.
This weekend (June 7-8)
This is certainly not a weekend to get terribly worked up about the surf.
We’ve actually got three distinct sources of energy for the region (see chart below): (1) the trade flow north of New Zealand earlier this week, which has generated a small E/SE swell (that is still yet to arrive), (2) a freshening southerly flow along the coast that’ll whip up a small, low quality short range south swell for exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW, and (3) a moderate S/SE fetch developing in the central-western Tasman Sea, on the western flank of a broad trough.
Overall, we’re looking at this mix of swells providing the biggest waves at south facing beaches in Northern NSW (2-3ft+), but they’ll also be heavily affected by a fresh and gusty S’ly breeze (some locations may see early SW winds, but that still won’t do any favours).
Remaining beaches - including much of the Gold and Sunny Coasts - will be a little smaller; the E/SE trade swell should be worthy of 2ft+ sets at most open beaches and exposed points, but there will be very long waits between sets and it won't have a lot of strength either. Overall, keep your expectations low.
Next week (June 9-13)
Looks like we’ve got a couple of days of mediocrity on target for early next week, but the longer term is shaping up very nicely.
A strong ridge will push across the region early in the week as a deep trough develops across the New Zealand region, and this will drive fresh and gusty S/SE winds across much of the coast through Monday and Tuesday.
Across the Northern NSW coast, Monday will see the arrival of a new S/SE swell from a small low expected to form well east of Bass Strait over the weekend, but it’s unlikely that the swell will reach much further north than about Coffs, and only south facing beaches will see any appreciable size (say, 3-5ft at exposed south facing beaches along the Mid North Coast by Monday lunchtime, and smaller in Northern NSW, perhaps not arriving until very late in the day). SE Qld won't see any energy from this source at all.
However, the aforementioned trade swell (originating from an extended E’ly fetch currently north and north-east of New Zealand) should maintain very inconsistent waves between 2ft and maybe 3ft at open beaches through Monday and Tuesday. So, protected points should have some small peelers on offer. And there’ll be a small level of pre-existing short range south swell in the water too. But keep your expectations low.
Looking further ahead, and there are two synoptic features of much greater interest on the charts for surfers in Northern NSW and SE Qld.
First off, early Monday will see the development of a small SE fetch off the SW tip of New Zealand, which is modelled to broaden and expand and travel north-west towards the East Coast through Tuesday. This will generate a modest SE swell for Wednesday afternoon (across the Mid North Coast), through Thursday and early Friday (into Far Northern NSW and SE Qld), probably somewhere in the 3-4ft range at open beaches in Northern NSW, reaching 2ft+ in SE Qld due to the less favourable swell direction.
However the ridge will relax across the region during this time so conditions should start to improve. I’ll fine tune the specifics on this in more detail in Monday’s notes.
But the real beauty in the current forecast period is a strong E’ly fetch that’s expected to spin up in the waters immediately west of Cook Strait (the body of water separating New Zealand’s North and South Islands) during the middle of the week, as a broad, dynamic trough takes hold of New Zealand's North Island (creating some pretty damaging weather over there too!).
This system is expected to generate a strong SE groundswell for Friday - probably arriving mid-late morning, peaking late in the day in the 5-6ft range in Northern NSW, with smaller 3-4ft+ surf in SE Qld. With light offshore winds currently expected for the region, next Friday could be very well worth some flexi-time. Let’s firm up the specifics in more detail on Monday.
Longer term (June 14 onwards)
Friday’s strong E/SE swell should persist into Saturday but will probably ease steadily throughout the weekend. Otherwise there are no other significant source of swell for the longer period currently showing on the radar.
Comments
breath hold training begins now for anticipated arrival on friday...but with this fetch still no Noosa?
I would have thought if that Northern trough dropped low and developed as some models are showing there could be a bit of a show from short range trade swell for the outer Bays at Noosa,Tues/wed?
Won't need no breathhold training tho,unless Your 95 Years old
Noosa should pick up some swell from this source but ideally we need more E or E/NE in the swell direction (ansd this swell direction will be more SE across Queensland). So it'll likely favour the outer bays.
Oh FFS let's just give out exact dates times and GPS coordinates so that we can all hold hands shall we!!!
For Noosa? C'mon Don. It's gotta be the second most crowded surf spot in the country behind the Superbank. It's not like we're discussing DI, the GBR, or even Moreton or North Straddie.
Geezus!!!
Ha see. Huey doesn't like it when ya talk about locations times and dates either! N
Don...... Swellnet is a surf report and forecast site........... A place where one reports..... and forecasts...... surf........
Noosa has 2 cams..... It has numerous local forecasters - eg-http://tandemsurfandsport.com.au/?p=4930
Probably still has ch9 and 7 doing thurs/fri/sat reports on the 6pm news.....
We aint talking about st***** creek north of c*****......... ;)
Sheepdog, looks like your keyboard is playing up, how about filling in those missing letters?
stinger creek... north of cairns........ ;) Just jokes mick.... just jokes.....
what's going on with BOM, if their charts are right won't there be legit waves now EVERYWHERE, like is Mr Wilson flying home to see mum...because he wants cookies i mean, or would he just stay in Bondi and get 'em at subway?
SD forecasting surf is fine by me. Naming locations dates times is not. Forecast the swell and let the sheep join the dots. Don't FFS tell everyone when and where to exactly go to get the best of the surf.
Doesn't matter now anyway. Huey has spoken and he's pissed about naming locations dates and times so he's turned the swell tap off. Which suits me fine actually as I didn't want the banks to be trashed anyway.
Let's see the banks get pounded to shit by a proper swell, it's winter we have enough sand and never enough swell, I'm tired of beach breaks, all you precious little sandbanks your time is up, the big girl wants to show you who's boss.
There'll be waves, Don......
The forecast seems to my uneducated eye changing every six hours or so, I want gut feelings. Donweather I will always respect your forecasting abilities having read your posts, but, other forecasters don't have a crowd mis-information agenda I guess cause they ain't living here. (i understand your pain though) I honestly don't know how many chumps sitting down the line at firs point actually even know an isobar from a backpackers bar. Like what Mitchy says in Surfing life even blowins get waves if they sit behind the rock and go when a set swings wide. Someone go out on a limb for Tuesday arvo before Ben's notes on Monday arvo. (or Ben chime in, tell me i'm dreaming)
The most beautiful thing we can experience is the mysterious.
Every forecaster anywhere on planet earth doesn't know shit? Are budget cuts any excuse for whoever draws up those maps to get the average punter (me) hopeful of better days with an L attached to what, is that an area of broad low pressure, offshore trough line or what. Is it a classic Fraser ECL, what is it anyone?
Dromo.... Ya' gotta stop basing your surfing life around a "noosa points is be all and end all"...... You'll go mad.........
I wont say "when", cos don will send a letter bomb lol, but have a poke around enviros', or coolum bays, or yaroomba, or marcoola, or pita st, or mudjimba..... They work in different conditons, on different days, on different swell angles, with different winds...... Variety, mate.......
if we had a nth West wind GBR would have been good
Doggie I'm in the hood. Only brought flippers and a hand plane. Is it uncovered at the moment
I'm talking about wedges out front of S C you mentioned
Mitch... A bit too cryptic for me at 8.34am on a sunday morning, champ....... A trip up to captain cook country on wed might be on the cards..... Keep watch of that low.....
Now....wedges.....s.c......... Are we talking south of the paddocks? Are we talking Clive palmer?
Nah we're talking about your hint above ;)
St creek nth of C.
I'm in your old hood :)
Not really a wedge...... Very dependent on sand buildup around the reef/rock...... Open to all swell.... But open to wind too..... Just watch out for the rock at the takeoff, whether you go left or right...... North of there are uncrowded beachys.... South of there is "midway reef"..... also dependent on sand though.....
S***** ***** north of ******
http://www.swellnet.com/photos/swellnet-sessions/winter-sunshine-coast
I love the look of it.
Complex troughy pattern with multiple fetches everywhere ........no-one will be able to accurately peg the micro pulses within the stronger swell trains so there'll be heaps of mystery bag sessions going down.
Also like look of second system I discussed here...
http://www.swellnet.com/reports/forecaster-notes/south-east-queensland-n...
Looks closer to 17/6.......
http://www.bellmereweather.net/GFSLongRange.asp?units=C
Ok cheers, just looking for a fun spot to body surf. Pretty rubbish conditions. even on high tide. Oh well Just gonna give one of the bays a go
Mitch, are you just up there for the weekend? Or are you there for a while?
I know somewhere that might be cranking... Although you will have to walk through a magical jungle then behind the waterfall of eternity then cross time and space to reach....
" What's that ? "
"Shhh."
Apologies to Jack McCoy .
Nope....... Not this next swell, blowin.......Too much wind for the left..... And wrong swell angle for the right.........
Nice try though..... ;)
Just for the weekend ATM, not a surfing trip :|
Your all over it , you old dog you. How's the long weekend been for you Sheepy ? Any waves ? What's the temps like down there ? I take it your still planning a Steve McQueen style breakout of the Apple Isle ?
.
Exactly what I was going to say Mitch.
No waves...... Last swell 2 weeks ago I did something to my troublesome L5 vertebrae...... Didn't hurt in the surf, just a clunky noise....... but next day, holy shit........ Cold Tassie weather aint helping... Just limping around getting fatter by the minute, enjoying my afl team getting flogged, pissing off my wife, and farting alot in an enclosed house....
And yeah, Papillion is still planning...... When he rigs up a backbrace, studies the currents off devonport all through winter, builds the raft from driftwood, he might just do it in late summer...... But knowing papi's luck, he'll get 1/2 way to vicco and a 40 knot northerly will spring up.......... Anyway, I here King island is nice.......
Sheepy - I hear celery top pine has respectable floatation/ absorption qualities. That could be a goer for an impromptu exit if your in the market for a homemade raft.
The grass is always greener Sheepy. I had a mate move to Tassie for a woman, loved it for a couple of years ( even became State champ !) , then got over it hard. Romanticised his former place on the mainland till he hit the wall one winter and moved back....
Turns out home wasn't all he remembered it to be , too busy, too much bullshit , too much traffic and too many wankers and we're talking regional NSW.
He's now happily back on the banks of the Derwent , in a house that he could only dream of on the mainland.
Only time will tell though eh mate .
Did that, blowin..... Just like your mate... In the middle of winter too... 6 months in 2010, back to coolum...... But the sunny coast has changed..... And so have we.... Came back here....... Thankfully hadn't sold up....
Wont be going back to qld, mate....... I had her in the 70s/80s/90s when she was a fuckn glamour.... Now she's just a old skank with too much make up lol...... Still love visiting the old boiler, though........ Still good for a quicky..... ( note to self -can it get any more sexist? Are you happy with the character you are portraying, sheepdog? Are you proud of your misogynistic neanderthal behaviour, sheepy? end note.....)
Gonna do a reconnaissance holiday to my wife's home state ( where I have lived before - got great friends there)......
It'll be country for sure, blowin...... Can't handle the ratrace..... And anyway, we can always come back.... cheers, man...
Papillion stop hiding so much money ? its pressing on yer L5
Udo , I'm hearing you mate. I still haven't passed those 2 cartons of Winfield Reds I smuggled through customs. Talk about back pain.
Hahaha nah sorry not a write off, just double entered a post from my phone accidentally.
Btw sheepdog, now everyone knows what you really think, you're not welcome back! ;) you better have a Maroon flag setup down there sunshine
I do, mitch... I do.... Locals don't know what to think about that "rugby".....
That's be it, udo..... Lifting all that cash..... ;)
That second system has sped up...... NSW looks like it'll get the best of it..... 15th - 17th.....
Well then, you're excused ;) Thanks for the tips anyway, was looking for anything to boost my motivation for a cruddy conditions. I was dreaming a bit as I was thinking back to my best sessions at other beachies with similar characteristics. But it's almost not worth hunting around with the traffic at, gotta choose one side and go. Hope your back's alright