Fun spread of waves across the peninsula

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Ben Matson (thermalben)

South Australian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 17th November)

Best Days: Tues/Wed: Victor: good waves with a moderate swell and early offshore wind. Fri: small clean waves on the Mid. This week (Nov 13-14)

This week (Nov 18-22)

*Forecaster notes will be very brief this week as Craig’s away. Sorry for any inconvenience*

We’ve had a good storm pattern below the continent over the last few days and this has been generating some reasonable energy for the Victor coast.

The Cape du Couedic buoy is picking up some new energy today, with significant wave heights climbing to around 3m and swell periods also ratcheting up. We can also be confident that there’s a reasonably high percentage of groundswell (rather than windswell) in the water, because if we compare the Neptune Island weather station data for the last 24 hours, we can see that wind speeds have actually decreased all day and are now the lightest they’ve been (often, a rise in wave heights at the CdC buoy will contain a lot of local windswell - which doesn’t translate to ‘surf’ at the beach - and this is usually identified by a corresponding increase in winds in the near vicinity of the buoy).

So, this should result in an upwards trend in surf size across the South Coast this afternoon (already looking pretty strong at Middleton via the surfcam), and to a much smaller degree, the Mid Coast (owing to the southerly component in the swell direction, which is being sheltered in the gulf by Kangaroo Island).

The good news is that the synoptic southerly wind is expected to be relatively light on Tuesday, so we should see some influence from the hills surrounding Victor, resulting in a morning outflow from the W/NW. Winds will eventually veer onshore mid-late morning but shouldn’t get too strong, so conditions should be workable all day. Middleton’s likely to pull in good 3-4ft sets before easing into the afternoon and it’ll be bigger at Waits and Goolwa. Along the Mid, conditions will be clean but there won’t be much size in it, just a foot or so of inconsistent surf best suited to beginners.

On Wednesday, winds will tend north-east and surf size will slowly fall away, favouring the South Coast again (3ft sets at Middleton early morning, smaller later). The Mid will be nice and clean but there’s unlikely to be much size on offer other than a small line of residual energy.

We’ve got a number of swell sources lining up for the rest of the week - firstly a long range swell arriving Wednesday night and pushing through the coast Thursday (generated near Heard Island over the weekend), followed by a slightly better short range SW swell kicked up by a deepening low south of WA today (actually related to the same parent system!) that’ll peak in size on Friday

We may see some small lines inside the gulf on Thursday from the long range source, but winds will be onshore (freshening NW tending SW with a front), so I’m more inclined to favour Friday for a small clean groundswell across the Mid in the 1-2ft range on the more favourable parts of the tide. The current wind forecast is pretty good too with light variable winds and sea breezes expected. Victor should also see an improvement on Friday following the onshore change due Thursday afternoon.

This weekend (Nov 23 onwards)

Beyond this we’ve got another strong storm track below WA this week that’ll push close to our near swell window on Thursday and Friday, generating a sustained round of moderate W/SW from Saturday thru’ Monday or possibly even Tuesday.

At this stage the weekend’s looking good for both coasts wind-wise (some form of northerly, probably without much strength) but Sunday is probably the pick at this stage. I’ll have more on this in Wednesday’s update.