Probably going off right now aye? Got the cold, dry air dropping off the the Tibetan Plateau's winter and looking like it's driving a decent (surfable, especially considering Madagascar blocks so much southerly swell) tradeswell-like fetch; cyclone Bejisa off Madagascar; and the Southern Ocean storm track which can deliver at any time. Perhaps this isn't a bad time of year to be doing an East Coast African surf trip...?
is there anyway to get an old WAM or forecast of some sort from Jan 15 - Jan 22 2014?
you could look through bom's mslp archive for a start....
I'll have a look for you Geecee, what you looking for in particular.
Actually wanted to have a look at the wave size period directions etc for some swell that came through to Kwazulu/Natal and Mozambique around the weekend 18/19 January 2014. (It was firing over that period from reports and video I have seen)
wanted to use it as a comparison to see what to look for to get that popular Mozambican point (ponto do ouro) when its working as its only about a 4 hour drive for me to get to.
I went to tofinho a couple of years back in july. Didnt really score but got a couple of fun surfs in. The locals were saying that that part of the coast were depending on cyclone activity/ lows etc to come down the channel between mozambique and madagascar and i read somewhere that those big systems that hit jbay etc usually go out to sea before they reach that part of the coast.. d'ouro is further south so might be different. Sounded like similar type of weather systems as Queensland...
yeah I have had Ponto good out of chance once, there was some cyclone swell around didnt really look into it or plan just went for a boys weekend and scored.
would like to get some better ideas on what too look for on the charts so i can predict it a bit better and plan a few good trips out there soon
Ah, I'll get onto this tomorrow Geecee
no problem Craig, whenever you get a chance, appreciate it
The point you are looking at is very interesting, as it's quite sheltered from southerly swells unless very large and with a long period.
But at the time of year you were looking at, a weak Tropical Cyclone named Deliwe developed in the channel between Madagascar and Mozambique and pushed back towards your point, generating a short-range and consistent E/SE swell.
Video of our Mentawai WAMs showing TC Deliwe..
This would of been a great direction and hitting it fairly square on.
The cyclone weakened but lingered in the area for a few days, continuing to generate fun SE swell.
I don't have the swell period/direction details for that region, but what you want to look for in the future is another trough or low forming between Madagascar and Mozambique, aiming a strong fetch of E'ly to SE winds towards Mozambique.
Any further questions fire away!
PS great fun looking into this, thanks!
you sir are a legend, thanks, that is awesome information. really helped me understand and made it perfectly clear. now I just gotta wait for some cyclones :D
Some footage from that weekend.
Tomorrow thru to weekend looking alright?
Yeah, good pick up Mitch, not straight on but a good solid SE groundswell!
Cheers Craig, weird origin of that low wasn't it. Seemed to start up on the warming continent.
Great setup at the moment for your Point GeeCee with a stationary high pressure system being squeezed by a couple of surface troughs on its north flank, aiming a persistent fetch of E/SE winds into Mozambique.
Swell for days...
Swell archives show 18 Jan/19 Jan this year that place saw a [email protected] sec e/SE swell. Current forecast has a [email protected] sec SE swell for today right through til Friday. Local winds look the killer though as they look to be onshore as opposed to more S'ly back in Jan.
nice, thanks for the info, if only i had a reason to head up that way for business haha,
would be interesting to see how it holds out under these conditions