We're still a ways out but the start of the waiting period is now at the end of the model run.
And crikey, the rookies (amongst others) will be shitting their pants at the current long range prognosis: for Day 3 the models are calling 15-18ft with a lovely light tradewind at 10kts. Back to 12-15ft for Day 4.
Let's see how the models evolve over the coming weeks. However there seems to be a broad model consensus that the LWT is moving to a position east of New Zealand next week, so a large swell during the first half of the waiting period is certainly quite plausible right now.
Bring it on!
Here is the Teahupoo 16-day forecast.
Also, the Trials are due to happen between the 9th and 12th and it looks like they'll be some good waves for it - the raw forecast data has 5-6ft on the 9th/10th, dropping on the 11th but then building to 6-8ft with a new swell on the 12th (haven't had a chance to check the underlying synoptics though, to see whether this is reasonable).
Could be incredible. Lock it in Eddie.
hope its not the case of the trials get the goods and the main event sucks.
Still a long way out, but yes the 18th/19th Tahiti time look damn solid!!!
Dunno if 'solid' is the right word DW. At 15ft, 'terrifying' is probably more appropriate.
At what size does it become unpaddleable? Will they have a lay day and live broadcast if it gets too big?
No idea whether they'll broadcast a mackin' non-comp day, but I'd hazard a guess they would. If it happens, it's likely to generate the biggest web audience of the event.
Storm still has to come to fruition Ben so I'm anticipating some downgrading as the storm approaches evolution.
Models slowly but surely winding back the forecasts for the 18th/19th. Still big, but swell heights slightly down and more importantly swell periods down!!!
If this storm comes off as currently forecast off the east coast of NZ, the swell arriving at Tahiti could be very interesting. Storm seems to have a few embedded fronts in it, generating several pulses of swell from different locations and intensities, all which could overlap to a certain extent when arriving in Tahiti (probably more so for the 19th than the 18th me thinks). Could very well be some dangerous conditions with multiple swells arriving in multiple sets/trains making caught inside and hold downs highly likely.
I wouldn't be surprised if they don't run the comp later on 18th and into the 19th (Tahiti time).
Models continue to downgrade this swell event for the 18th/19th.....particularly for the 19th. It now looks to be a one day quick up and down swell on the 18th. Don't get me wrong....still solid, but no code red swell that's for sure.
Will be interesting to see if they run the comp before the 18th...perhaps on the first day just to get Rd 1 out of the way and get everyone some warm up before the big stuff comes on the 18th.
Actually quite the opposite from last night Don.
Models have strengthened the front just pushing past New Zealand's East Coast Thursday/Friday while also strengthening the follow up system developing south of the Tasman Sea and pushing nicely up through Tahiti's swell window Friday through Sunday.
This will be then followed up by a third and strongest polar front a bit further east in the swell window.
So we're looking at three solid swells, but no, not code-red but possibly beyond the limits of paddling.
The only reason they may run Friday morning is because of the dicey wind outlook from late next week.
And... the first front now looks to stay a touch further west, with New Zealand cutting it nearly in half. This will limit the swell potential off this system now.