As we all know its a scientific fact that 80-90% of south swells come in well under the proportions predicted by both swellnet and coastalwatch.
Lets take next tuesday and wednesday for an example. Swellnet is forecast a "strong" 6-8ft southswell for early Wednesday morning, however even the average street bum could look through his metho bottle at the synoptic charts for this period and see that any swell generated will be headed well away from the east coast and towards New Zealand leaving us with 2-3ft of REFRACTED swell as the likely outcome.
Craig better get his usual last minute excuses ready for when the swells not arrive. A couple of old trusty faithful ones which are regularly seen on swellnet include.....
1. the fetch moved through the Tasman quicker than expected
2. Who could've guessed New Zealand was going to get in the way.
3. I didnt realise the winds revolved clockwise around a low pressure system.
4. Unfortunately I was looking at synoptic charts from 2001.
5. the gravitational pull of 4planets aligning deviated the low towards the antartic.
And dont think I'm limiting this criticism to swellnet alone. Old mate Ben over at Coastalwatch made the monumental blunder of forecasting an epic 10-12ft east swell lasting several days recently only for the end result to be several days of dissapointing 4ft swell with one afternoon of bigger waves.
Time and time again these monkeys overcall the swell and downgrade at the last minute/ trying to justify their claims because one break in the Hunter got a 6ft bomb. Too bad for everyone else on the east coast who had to grovel their way through 1-2ft shite.
Didn't see you in the North Curly carpark this morning FBPK. Which south swell magnet did you hit up for your 2-3ft surf?
Saturday was solid, I know, I couldn't get out at my beachy and had to play 'little quad' along the shore. thundering it was.
Not in Sidders, too bad eh :)
Yeah yeah yeah....... I have egg smeared all over my face...... HA HA HA. I bet you have a dirty grin on your face knowing swellnet was right and I was wrong ( usually its the other way around ) . Todays correct call briefly hides many of the other blunders. Its like covering a gunshot wound with a band aid.
Congratulations on the good call, its probrably the second or third good call swellnet has made this year.Its been a long time between drinks, so lap it up boys.
And no ,I didn't bother with the gutless burgers at North Curly. I was owning the line up at Shark Island despite a severe ear infection. If you happened to be looking at the surfcams at 7:30am ( you probrably wern't as you were surfing kiddies corner) I was the was furthest on the inside.I was dominating the pack of 40guys,and picked off the best waves out of anyone. So while my surf forecasting skills weren't up to speck today,I was certainly on fire with the esky lid. I was tempted to surf Ours, but I dont like getting sent in by kooky standups.
i still think you must stand up to be counted
You're a legend in your own lunchbox foamballpilotking.....nothing like tooting your own horn to prop yourself back up after getting knocked down.
If you don't like the Swellnet surf predictions then don't read them but don't go round knocking Swellnet who are providing a free service and a damn fine service at that. Like to see you putting yourself out there every week with surf calls. You should know how hard they are to predict if in fact you dominated the line up like you say you did. More likely you were at Kiddies corner yourself struggling to get out the back.
Most of the forecasts are optimistic, but I like that because I'm an optimist.
P.S coastalwatch sux