Long range forecasting

pepe's picture
pepe started the topic in Sunday, 5 Dec 2010 at 1:08pm

Any recommended sites lads? Mummy and bab's are shooting off inter-state before Xmas, meaning I have a weekend and a few extra days to travel and hunt for waves. I'm looking for something that would give me indications the week(end) before Xmas.

Admittedly I'm being a lazy arse git and I could spend time and search the net, but, if you don't ask ...

Thanks in advance of any help
Pepe

shaun's picture
shaun's picture
shaun commented Sunday, 5 Dec 2010 at 8:48pm

Taro cards.com

I'm the scab you keep picking off and is there again the next day.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Sunday, 5 Dec 2010 at 9:11pm

Depends on what kind of 'long range forecast' you're after Pepe, and where you live. Are you after specific wave heights and surface conditions, or are you after a general trend indicator? Do you want to know if it's better to head down south or up north? Are you wondering if it's time to dust off the 7'2 and start a fitness program for chasing the big stuff?

For general surf forecasting, anything beyond a week is highly speculative at best, unless you're in Indonesia, the South Pacific or any other location where long range groundswells can be predicted much further in advance.

So assuming you're in Australia, and with the Xmas period still three weeks away, you've got another two weeks until there'll be any chance of a reliable opinion. If you're after general trends (ie 'yes, there's a chance of a big swell', or 'persistent NE windswells are most likely during this period') then we'll probably be able to start forming opinions a few days before this.

As a start, where do you live, and what time frame are you looking at?

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Monday, 6 Dec 2010 at 10:20am

Pepe, as Ben said, there are long range weather charts available. You can become a silver member of Weatherzone and you get access to the long range ACCESSG and GFS models. EC long range models are free here:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/ms...

Basically, the best thing to do is compare the long range charts from all three models and look at them at each model run (every 12 hours). If all 3 are showing something similar in there long range charts over consecutive runs then there's a moderate chance of something similar coming to fruition, but as Ben has said, all long range models do need to be taken with a grain of salt.

Good luck.

pepe's picture
pepe's picture
pepe commented Monday, 6 Dec 2010 at 1:57pm

I'm looking for general surf forecasting, not the big stuff (i.e. big wave riding), a few nice ridable waves would do. Of course I would be wrapped with 6 or max. 8 ft, depending on break. Hey, I'd settle for 2-3 ....

I live in Perth and will make the trip down South.

Admittedly I am being lazy and sticking some feelers out, you know trying to plan the weekend now as if there's no waves I could take the bike on a road trip making the most of a free selfish weekend. Although pitching a tent, scoring a couple of sessions each day, a good book/reading catch up and a few tinnies at night would be do me just fine.

Thanks for the tips Ben & Don, the advice so far is pretty good (you're excluded shaun, taro cards indeed pffft ...)

Pepe

shaun's picture
shaun's picture
shaun commented Tuesday, 7 Dec 2010 at 1:23am

I sorry you have such a closed mind, taro cards have been a useful tool for many centuries. But that's okay cause if everyone used them the surf would be even more crowded, I have found I can predict a swell anywhere in the world up 27 weeks in advance wich is quite handy when booking holidays to remote destinations, open up your mind to a different world pep

I'm the scab you keep picking off and is there again the next day.

pepe's picture
pepe's picture
pepe commented Tuesday, 7 Dec 2010 at 5:01am

Sorry bud, I thought you were being sarcastic, so I was being close minded. Taracards.com is under construction although it will let me play bingo or purchase a mobile phone. Thanks for your help shaun, if you get a good reading please share it

Don - that ECMWGF site is pretty good aye. I'll monitor it and compare to actual if I travel south. At this stage it looks like a big ole high will be about, so not promising. Cheers for this mate

Pepe

Pepe

shaun's picture
shaun's picture
shaun commented Tuesday, 7 Dec 2010 at 8:48am

Well yes Pepe, I have done a reading for you and the cards say that you will have a good weekend , no matter what the surf is like.

I'm the scab you keep picking off and is there again the next day.

ed's picture
ed's picture
ed commented Tuesday, 7 Dec 2010 at 10:01am

Shaun are you being serious with the taro cards?

Tell me what the surf will be doing at Narrabeen around christmas.

Im a skeptic but this is your chance to prove taro cards are legit!

shaun's picture
shaun's picture
shaun commented Tuesday, 7 Dec 2010 at 11:11am

I do not need to prove myself, but for you ed I will do my best. The surf will roll in the direction of the shoreline from out of the horizon, it will also be very, very crowded.The cards are very vague to specific questions such as yours, if you could ask the cards a broader less specific question they will be able to give you the answer in kind.

I'm the scab you keep picking off and is there again the next day.

ed's picture
ed's picture
ed commented Tuesday, 7 Dec 2010 at 1:06pm

Q: What’s the difference between a pizza and a tarot reader?

A: A pizza can feed a family of four.