Long range forecasting

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Depends on what kind of 'long range forecast' you're after Pepe, and where you live. Are you after specific wave heights and surface conditions, or are you after a general trend indicator? Do you want to know if it's better to head down south or up north? Are you wondering if it's time to dust off the 7'2 and start a fitness program for chasing the big stuff?

For general surf forecasting, anything beyond a week is highly speculative at best, unless you're in Indonesia, the South Pacific or any other location where long range groundswells can be predicted much further in advance.

So assuming you're in Australia, and with the Xmas period still three weeks away, you've got another two weeks until there'll be any chance of a reliable opinion. If you're after general trends (ie 'yes, there's a chance of a big swell', or 'persistent NE windswells are most likely during this period') then we'll probably be able to start forming opinions a few days before this.

As a start, where do you live, and what time frame are you looking at?

Pepe, as Ben said, there are long range weather charts available. You can become a silver member of Weatherzone and you get access to the long range ACCESSG and GFS models. EC long range models are free here:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/ms...

Basically, the best thing to do is compare the long range charts from all three models and look at them at each model run (every 12 hours). If all 3 are showing something similar in there long range charts over consecutive runs then there's a moderate chance of something similar coming to fruition, but as Ben has said, all long range models do need to be taken with a grain of salt.

Good luck.

I sorry you have such a closed mind, taro cards have been a useful tool for many centuries. But that's okay cause if everyone used them the surf would be even more crowded, I have found I can predict a swell anywhere in the world up 27 weeks in advance wich is quite handy when booking holidays to remote destinations, open up your mind to a different world pep

Well yes Pepe, I have done a reading for you and the cards say that you will have a good weekend , no matter what the surf is like.

Shaun are you being serious with the taro cards?

Tell me what the surf will be doing at Narrabeen around christmas.

Im a skeptic but this is your chance to prove taro cards are legit!

I do not need to prove myself, but for you ed I will do my best. The surf will roll in the direction of the shoreline from out of the horizon, it will also be very, very crowded.The cards are very vague to specific questions such as yours, if you could ask the cards a broader less specific question they will be able to give you the answer in kind.

Q: What’s the difference between a pizza and a tarot reader?

A: A pizza can feed a family of four.