SWELL ALERT: Thus 16 Sept epic southerly swell for east coast!

brian-wu's picture
brian-wu started the topic in Thursday, 9 Sep 2010 at 7:40am

I called it first.

donweather's picture
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donweather commented Thursday, 9 Sep 2010 at 11:35am

I'm tending to agree with Craig with respect to timing, although for me, EC is still progging a damn decent fetch to form.....just that little further to the west unfortunately for the east coast, when compared to the sensational fetch progged by GFS. Even the BOM's ACCESS model is progging some impressive tight lines down in the Southern Ocean.

Tassie looks to get smashed under either model!!!!

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Saturday, 11 Sep 2010 at 8:54am

Latest 00z GFS run has a bullshit [email protected] seconds S'ly groundswell pushing over the border on Friday afternoon. If this puppy comes to fruition, this will be one of the most powerful S'ly groundswells to grace the east coast. Still a big "if".

stuz's picture
stuz's picture
stuz commented Sunday, 12 Sep 2010 at 10:26pm

No work this friday.

Stu

floyd's picture
floyd's picture
floyd commented Monday, 13 Sep 2010 at 11:20pm

Just maybe the days predicted to be "epic" lead to unreal (and mostly unmet) expectations for most surfers.

Perhaps the swell isn't as big as predicted or the direction is slightly off or the tide is wrong or perhaps its the super super crowded conditions - everywhere.

No doubt good waves will be had by some but given the likely concentration of swell and people into maybe a dozen breaks on each coast what are the odds of you getting your fill of empty and perfect waves?

Good luck buddy.

bombora's picture
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bombora commented Tuesday, 14 Sep 2010 at 6:21am

Just maybe the days predicted to be "epic" lead to unreal (and mostly unmet) expectations for most surfers.

Perhaps the swell isn't as big as predicted or the direction is slightly off or the tide is wrong or perhaps its the super super crowded conditions - everywhere.

No doubt good waves will be had by some but given the likely concentration of swell and people into maybe a dozen breaks on each coast what are the odds of you getting your fill of empty and perfect waves?

Good luck buddy.

By: "floyd"

Yeah. I agree. It will all be shit so everyone should stay in bed.

brian-wu's picture
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brian-wu commented Tuesday, 14 Sep 2010 at 6:43am

Craig, please remove this post.

e wrote:
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joshsa's picture
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joshsa commented Wednesday, 15 Sep 2010 at 8:21am

will nelson park be working?

scoopmaster's picture
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scoopmaster commented Friday, 17 Sep 2010 at 3:15am

well there were certainly no epic waves around ulladulla this morning thats for sure! got up around 3am and drove down hoping to score some waves before work around bawley point, but when i checked golfy on the way through it was an inconsistent 2-3 foot at best, certainly far from "dangerous surf conditions" as the BOM suggested. The swell does not appear to have significantly increased in size since either. I'm not saying swellnet overcalled it by the way, as the cronulla and newcastle reports were showing some size - just that the swell direction is far from ideal for some areas.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 17 Sep 2010 at 3:31am

The far South Coast never generally does well under these south swells that spread out from the south-east Tasman Sea. Hopefully you see a bit more size tomorrow morning from a trailing fetch of S/SW winds just of Tassie's East Coast during the early hours of this morning.

brendo's picture
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brendo commented Friday, 17 Sep 2010 at 3:39am

My central coast local was 2-3 foot this morning too, now it's 6-8 !!

knowthefeeling's picture
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knowthefeeling commented Friday, 17 Sep 2010 at 9:33pm

Another sunshine coast forecast MASSIVE let-down.
100,000 sunny coast surfers are pissed off this morning.

donweather's picture
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donweather commented Saturday, 18 Sep 2010 at 1:17am

With winds still light and a rising wave buoy, perhaps the pissed off SC surfers should get back out there and find some fun waves at south facing beaches. But as mentioned in the other thread, south swells and the sunny coast never mix. Summer/Autumn is the time for the SC to shine.

scoopmaster's picture
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scoopmaster commented Saturday, 18 Sep 2010 at 4:10am

very reluctantly got up at 4 : 30am after yesterday's dissapointment, after 3hours looking we managed to find a good reef break that surprisingly had no one out despite being 3 foot and hollow (north of jervis bay). Prior to this it had seemed the swell was too big for the usual small wave locations and too small for the sheltered locations. Our initial excitement was soon dimmed when it became apparent that the occasional slightly overhead wave was breaking wide of the reef, and a strong current and offshore wind was making it a struggle to stay on the small takeoff area. i got one enjoyable wave in a 1 hour session that was otherwise unenjoyable.

P.S i will NOT be getting up for the early tomorrow

donweather's picture
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donweather commented Saturday, 18 Sep 2010 at 11:51pm

Not sure what the Sunny Coast surfers were complaining about. From the pictures I've just seen of a non-south facing beach up the Sunny Coast yesterday, the 3-4ft waves looked sensational!!!

heapsy's picture
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heapsy commented Sunday, 19 Sep 2010 at 12:05am

The surf didn't quite live up to all the hype but it was still 6-8ft on all beaches across the central coast... bigger than anything i've ever seen was pre shit though

Heapsy

pete_79's picture
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pete_79 commented Sunday, 19 Sep 2010 at 6:37am

Not sure what the Sunny Coast surfers were complaining about. From the pictures I've just seen of a non-south facing beach up the Sunny Coast yesterday, the 3-4ft waves looked sensational!!!

By: "donweather"

Sorry Don, but someone's havin a lend of you mate. I was out for 4 hours this morning on the sunny coast open beaches, didn't see anything close to 3 or 4 foot. I'd call the sets 2+ (maybe) and they only came in about every 10 - 15 minutes. Some of the sets only had 2 waves in them. There where 1000s of people in the water up and down the coast, with the recent long flat spell and the school hols every break was packed. When the sets only had a couple of waves in them there where heaps of guys out there getting nothing.

It was nice and clean conditions and was a great day to get wet (finally :)).

But, it was nothing too special and when a crew of old pricks on mals with no manners decieded to take over the bank that me and 2 other guys had been sharing all morning it wasn't worth the hassel. Had to be content with 4 hours (was keen for more) and head home for a coffee....

donweather's picture
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donweather commented Sunday, 19 Sep 2010 at 7:21am

Pete, I didn't believe it either but the pics don't lie.

http://forum.realsurf.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=15570&start=3240

benski's picture
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benski commented Sunday, 19 Sep 2010 at 10:55am

Not sure which of those were supposed to be the sunny coast donweather, the ones that came up when I followed the link weren't. Not this weekend anyway. I'd agree with pete from what I surfed. I couldn't make the early yesterday so by the time I got out to my local (an open beach) it had picked up a bit with a few waves in the 2-3 foot range but no way would they have been 4 foot. By then though there was a weak NE on it so there were only 3 of us on the bank. Meant the long waits weren't so bad cos we each got a wave each set.

Surfed with one other bloke this arvo when the wind backed off (couldn't make the early again!) and we were trying to figure out where everyone was. It was smaller, only 1-2 foot but still pretty fun and really clean.

pete_79's picture
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pete_79 commented Sunday, 19 Sep 2010 at 9:30pm

I checked the link and those pics could well have been from the Saturday sesh, I couldn't get to the beach on Sat so can't comment.
I'd say that particular set up in those pics would have helped it look more impressive then it really was (more exposed headland with a shallow rock ledge). But, all in all this was just another typical south swell event up here and I can’t understand why everyone was so disappointed. We all know that south swells struggle to get in here.

As with most of these south swell events that get a bit hyped up by everyone, I find the best trick is to head to the beach with “high hopes and low expectations”. That way you’re not so disappointed when reality sets in and it’s smaller then forecast…

I get my share of waves anyway, so no complaints here. :)

benski's picture
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benski commented Sunday, 19 Sep 2010 at 10:58pm

Agree pete, I was pleasantly surprised it got as big as it did.

I see the pics now, didn't even think to check that break in a south swell. It's usually pretty sheltered from southerly swell so I figured it'd be flat.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 commented Sunday, 19 Sep 2010 at 11:21pm

Sep sessions.

Went for a bike ride late Fri to see if the swell was hitting, was kind of semi-frothed for a late go-out but the scenes I had witnessed that morning had filled me with horror and the effects were still lingering.
The Point was breaking and SEQLD had descended like a plague of locusts, a plague of demented cannabilistic locusts, paddling over each other, colliding and dropping in en masse on each scrap of aquatic nourishment. It was disgusting.
The late arvo was grey and the lines were long, but still weak. It woulda been fun with a few crew but with a hundred out it looked fcuked up. I saw Black Mike jump-off, with a gorgeous AB channel bottom under arm. Minutes later he jagged a medium set from deep on the back bowl. 3 people dropped in on him, including one rude cnut who refused to relinquish the ride.
Mike did a run around.
"Hey Gibbo, how's Herro going?". Mike's from Dee Why, a contemporary of Shane's, with a deep love for the man. He's wrestled plenty of his own demons, is intelligent and painfully honest. Being as loosely wound as Mike makes fitting into the mainstream a challenge. He's now got a steady gig at the chicken factory and doesn't mind acting in a play or two. Post work, he scrubs off the chicken slime and gore and dresses in the manner of a Victorian dandy, with scarf and smoking jacket.
"Back in Dee Why" , he said.
"Mate saw him today and said he didn't look too shabby".....
"So is he clean, off the drink?"
"Dunno, Dee Why's a dark place. But that's what he knows. You know his dad and how he ended up?"
I had an idea. A drunk.
"Shane's seen a lot of nasty shitt from a very early age"
There was a quiet moment. Shouting, violence, bad craziness, shame and silent tears. Confusion for a young boy. Confusion and darkness. A darkness now populated by voices that only became dim when the mind was lulled into drunken stupor.
Poor bastard.
"Been surfing?" I asked.
"Mate look at this shitt" he said, sweeping his hand out over the crowd.
"I haven't been surfing for two months. I hate this fcuking surf culture and what it's become. I'd rather hang out with bikies than surfers."
"Yeah, but riding a wave is still good isn't it?" I said.
"Oh, riding a wave, your own personal relationship with the ocean : that's the most beautiful thing there is. The rest is all fcuking bullshitt"
Gibbo had been making his way down the rocks, a surge came and he jumped in.
"Say g'day to Herro for us " I shouted.
He didn't answer.
Drew "Bundini" Brown, trainer for Muhammed Ali came to mind. "Sure, man's a prophet. Any man care about the poor people and the little people got to be a prophet. Mister"
Next morning the crowd was worse but the surf was pumping. I went one south. There was a handful. No-one catching waves, mostly due to the horrendous rock-off and the robust current. Had a 6'3" and a 7 footer in the van. Saw the current and big walls and went home and got a nine foot Brewer Sunset gun.
You can see the rock-off. The problem is the low saddle in the protruding rock peninsula which attracts monstrous hits from incoming swells. The saddle must be breached to get to the jump-off. The saddle is treacherous and slippery. The saddle spells death and disfigurement.
I was thinking "nah".
But there was a emergency rescue chopper pilot on the bluff and he yelled "Go!, Go!"
So I scrambled like a a drunken gibbon over the rocks. If I fucked it up there was a chopper pilot ready to get me to the hospital or the morgue. That inspired confidence in decisive action.
Didn't need the nine footer for the size of the surf but to deal with the current it was indispensable. Even with it it was a three-quarter strength paddle to deal with the amount of water pushing up the coast.

The next morning looked smaller and I made a shocking undercall. Had the luxury of choosing the correct tide. The surf was actually bigger. It was long-lined, thick, long period swell. Brushed by a stiff offshore wind. The spot I surfed Sat looked like North Point crossed with Big Groyne Kirra. It was monstrous, sand dredging freight train barrels. Current running like a river. It was 8ft solid if an inch. No-one out.
I watched it for a goodly while, trying to do the mental calculus of taking on the saddle. Again and again I would get half way across and Boom. Gone. Smashed into the maelstrom. A pommy backpacker showed up for a squizz. Could he be trusted to spot for me?
He was in his twenties and had jowls. I never trust a young man with jowls.
So I went back to the Point. The tide was just on the change. I was watching it with an old sea dog from the Coast.
A massive set loomed up on the outer pinnacle and stood up on the back button and pitched top to bottom. Masses of people got caught inside and swept away like a biblical event.
Time for the Brewer gun again.
I went right up and around the back of the Point, looking for a way to paddle in from behind the peak. Sets were pouring through and the jump was as bad as it gets. Massive drain-outs in between waves that would expose 20 feet of barnacle covered rocks. Slippery, slime covered boulders that needed to be hopped in the 15 seconds between waves. Huge doubleup surges that would cascade right up into the high tide zone. I went right down into no-mans land and slipped in between boulders as a surge sucked up, put one foot on something solid and launched into the back of it as it smashed into the rocks. Felt fins grind against rock as it sucked back out and duck-dived a nine foot gun into the next double-up surge.
Adrenalin was coursing through me. I paddled right out wide and drifted in to the back peak. A huge set came in. The second wave was bowling in hard and freighttraining in from the south.
I was in such a perfect position I coulda caught it on a five ten. It was like a perfect big north-west peak at Sunset. The nine footer took the rocket drop and came off the bottom so sure-footedly. There were people scattering like nine pins.
Late in the day I took a drive. The whole coast was alive with barreling right handers on a grey, oily afternoon. It was quite surreal.
What an extraordinary September swell.
Never seen nothing like it.
http://www.vimeo.com/15075190

pete_79's picture
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pete_79 commented Monday, 20 Sep 2010 at 1:34am

Nice vid Steve, that’s a good way to put things into perspective…..

I see that Gold Coasters still take their manners with them when they travel. :( There’s no rules at the Super Wank, why should there be any rules at anyone else’s break.
This new surf culture and its fucked up mentality has really taken over, it is truly sad times we live in….

Good to see that amongst the madness you still managed to score some nice ones... :)

stunet's picture
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stunet commented Monday, 20 Sep 2010 at 2:32am

Nice one Steve...real nice. Cool vid too.

It was an amazing and unique swell indeed. Watching it develop and arrive tested my concentration levels. Suffice to say I got bugger-all work done last week Surfed around Cronulla on Friday and copped shit wherever I paddled out cos the swell wasn't as big as forecast: "Settle fellas, it's coming."

I woke up at 5 on Saturday morning and watched the swell from the Bower carpark. Big, deep, long-period lines silently headed north under an oil smooth surface. Fuck, it was amazing shit to see. Thought the wind might edge SW so brushed Cronulla. SW is great for the Point but they had Boardriders on, not so great for the wave I had in mind. So, rather than risk it, I decided to cash in my newfound Northern Beaches ratepayer status and surfed around home. It was a dud move. Surfed a bomby that I'd rather not name, despite its location and the fact we surfed it alone. Eight foot on the sets but had a weird cross wave warble thing happening to it. Last wave was a solid one and it linked up with another bomby for a 200 metre cutback-free speed run. Was on a 7'10" Webber Insight which was a bit of overkill but fucken fun on that wave. The thing petered out in deep water WAY out in the middle of nowhere. The extra length was a blessing for the paddle back.

One of the fellas I was surfing with (just met him that morning) was getting married. Ceremony was at 10, so he chucked his board on the back of the ute, donned a collared shirt and jeans, slipped on a pair of sandals and drove off grinning. No fuss. I admired his style.

Surfed Newport Reef around midday which was like a skatepark with no vert. It was my first surf there and a bit underwhelming. Sort of fun, long, slopey troughs with a crumbly lip. Fellas were surfing 10 foot Brewers and Mitchell Rae's like it was Sunset Beach.

Received a call from a mate down Cronulla reporting on 10-12+ offshore pits. The wind didn't go SW, in fact it went light NW. Dunno if I would've had a shot at it, but it fucken ripped my heart out hearing that. Just to watch it, just to have the opportunity to maybe paddle out would've stopped the gnawing frustration. And just to be around all the energy and crazy shit that I heard about: Herb's ski go over in the lip at Daggers while he was in the barrel; Griggsy and BD caught inside on a 15 footer; Jonesy caught inside on his ski and having to launch the thing 15 foot into the air; Point Boardriders getting smaller, but nonetheless smoking, pits all morning long; Fletch and brother Dyl stubbornly taking shots at out-of-control Middles.

It was one of those swells. Very special indeed.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 commented Monday, 20 Sep 2010 at 3:02am

Haha. Oh, they'll be loving that Stu.
Late yesterday arve, totally surfed out I watched an oil slick smooth outer sandbar reeling off unridden. Each wave completely perfect. Guaranteed 10-15 second barrels. Mind-blowing.
Wonder when I'll see that again?

cruskits's picture
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cruskits commented Tuesday, 21 Sep 2010 at 8:06pm

"As with most of these south swell events that get a bit hyped up by everyone, I find the best trick is to head to the beach with “high hopes and low expectations”. That way you’re not so disappointed when reality sets in and it’s smaller then forecast…"

I can assure you that's exactly what we do as the swell predictions are rarely accurate for the Sunny Coast.
I picked up my bottom lip and went back out Sat arvo at Curra's, right in front of the rivermouth at 4.30pm until it was too dark to see. Shared SUPER clean 2+ ft waves with 2 other blokes, pickin them off each in turn. Bigger would've be nice but sensational none the less.

I think the reason we got sucked into the hype of last weeks swellchart was cos it's been so damn long between drinks.....so damn long.

Going camping at DI all next week, will the swell-gods smile on us. Who do I bribe ?

i-u-brawn's picture
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i-u-brawn commented Friday, 24 Sep 2010 at 4:25am

nice one brian. you picked the size and timing perfectly from like 10 days out... good work.

stunet's picture
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stunet commented Friday, 24 Sep 2010 at 4:38am

Hangabout! Brian Wu said Thursday was gonna be the big day when it actually peaked on Saturday. Wouldn't call that perfect timing.

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stunet commented Friday, 24 Sep 2010 at 4:43am

...and the writing styles of brian-wu and i-u-brawn seem awfully familiar. Hmmm...

brian-wu's picture
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brian-wu commented Saturday, 25 Sep 2010 at 11:01am

Thank you Ian Brawn.

What some of these so called "expert forecasters" who probably live at Agnes Waters don't understand is that the east coast starts at a little place south of Hobart known as Shipsterns Bluff. And so my timing was spot on.

Craig's picture
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Craig commented Saturday, 25 Sep 2010 at 4:17pm

Sorry to burst your bubble Brian but you said "East Coast 16th Sep" not the South Coast of Tassie!!

Back you go into your box of alias's...

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brian-wu commented Sunday, 17 Oct 2010 at 5:17am

Brian Wu You are a legend of surf forcasting. Can you predict to me the next big swell event for the east coast?

By: "craig"

Sure thing Craig. The next big swell will be ESE groundswell in the 6-10ft range, possibly cyclonic, and will hit on Thursday 28th Oct.