Submitted by thermalben on Fri, 03/07/2014 - 13:32
South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 6th March)
Best Days: Great surf expected most days from Sunday onwards.
Recap: Strong trade swell on Tuesday eased slowly through Wednesday and Thursday, bottoming out this morning.
This weekend (Mar 7-8)
Not a bad weekend for waves although Sunday will certainly be the pick, and the open points of SE Qld will be the biggest beneficiary.
Synoptically speaking, we have a tropical low northeast of Cairns (more than a thousand kays from the mainland) which is likely to develop into a Tropical Cyclone during the next 24-36 hours. This TC is located well outside SE Qld's swell window - let alone Northern NSW - so we won't be seeing any direct swell from it.
However, it's presence will assist in anchoring the trade flow across the southern Coral Sea, and we'll see a building trde swell as a result. Saturday will start off small with a slow increase throughout the afternoon however Sunday looks like it'll see the most size, and the Sunshine Coast will see the biggest waves (approaching 3-5ft at exposed beaches by the end of the day, smaller on the points).
As we head south from the Sunshine Coast, wave heights will decrease - so expect a late Sunday peak in the 3-4ft range on the Gold Coast, 3ft across the Northern NSW Coast and down to somewhere around 2ft on the Mid North Coast.
Wind wise, we're looking at a steady E/SE flow in most regions veering more E/NE across the Mid North region. Aim for the morning as winds will be at their lightest then and this is the only chance where you may see locally influenced periods of offshore winds in selected areas. So on the whole, Sunday's looking great for the open SE Qld and Northern NSW points.
Next week (Mar 10-14)
Next week looks unreal for surf prospects, thanks to a sustained period of strong activity throughout the Tropical South Pacific and Coral Sea (this pattern is long overdue as well!).
A new high moving slowly eastward through the southern Tasman Sea throughout the forecast period, will maintain a health trade flow through our swell window for much of the forecast period. This will supply plenty of surf all week, although Sunday's late peak will probably ease slowly through Monday afternoon and Tuesday, bottoming out Wednesday. That being said, the SE Qld region is unlikely to drop below 3ft through Wednesday, with slightly smaller surf as you track south of the border.
Wind wise, we're looking at similar patterns for much of the week in SE Qld/Northern NSW (early light winds, tending moderate to fresh SE or E/SE). During Tues/Wed we'll see variable conditions with afternoon nor'easters develop in the Mid North as a southerly change approaches. This southerly change is expected to influence southern NSW later Wednesday but current expectations are it won't push north of about Seal Rocks. So, expect a renewal of E/SE winds across most regions later in the week as a new high becomes established in the Tasman Sea.
Long term (Mar 15 onwards)
The weekend's Coral Sea cyclone is unlikely to directly influence our swell prospects. However, model guidance is suggesting we'll see a bigger, more prominent Tropical Cyclone form near the Vanuatu region later this weekend or early next week, before slowing tracking east (towards Fiji) then possibly south.
As this system will be somewhat embedded within the sustained, stationary monsoon trough, it has strong swell generating potential in a couple of areas - firstly, it'll restrengthen the existing trade flow (and should provide a kick in size later next week). However because of the favourable synoptic setup, the cyclone itself has good swell generating possibilities for the Australian East Coast sometime later next weekend or early in the following week, depending on how it behaves.
At this stage the models are split between a slowly meandering journey through the tropics - which may not deliver us much swell - or an extra-tropical transition along a southward path from Fiji to New Zealand.
Gut feeling right now is that we'll see the latter develop, however the large distance between the mainland will cap wave heights on the East Coast. That being said, I'm expecting this system to be large, slow moving and very intense - so the large, long period swell generated by it should kick up some pretty serious wave heights.
As such I'm going to go out on a limb and call a 6ft+ long range E'ly groundswell for exposed spots, arriving sometime around next Saturday (15th) or Sunday (16th). I'll update my thoughts on this on Monday.
It's great when you go out on a limb! I'll go clean the step up.
Nah, Braithy, leave the step dirty. He wont fall. He's got it just about right. Dunno' if it'll "drop out" too much mid week.... Those trades are pretty deep, getting sucked into the remnants of the "cyclone", and also being squeezed below New Cal... 1012 to 1024 new Cal to Northland......I'll stand by my call in our "jellyfish shitwind" chat 2 days ago, Braithy. And I'll back Ben up re' 6ft+ next weekend..... That step..... it wooden, right?.... It's not concrete is it? ;)
I can't wait for this jellyfish shitwind. I'm going to stand on the rocks with my kids and point it out to them.
Just look in an east north east direction. You'll feel it's shitty breath in your face..... Good for nothin bar jelly fish.... Everywhere onshore.....
There ya go
Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .
Does Queensland ever get groundswells? This is a serious question I have been here since September 2013 and haven't seen anything above 13 seconds yet.
I'll add to that question, ever an evening glass off on the sunny coast? Be nice to go for a paddle after work without a howling onshore, just once.
Local bathymetry and swell direction trumps period every single time in SEQLD Ty. Some of the most insane tuberides happen on less than ten second period surf.
Are you taking the piss? I'll come back to this in October... There's a bit of a warm pool just off the Bass Straight isn't there Free ;-) Hopefully the jet will be split over Qld and steer things towards NZ's SW corner
Hell no. eight ten second easterly dip tradewind swell generated inside New Cal beats an eighteen second refracted S swell any day.
Feck as sdog has said current local progs for when the real juice arrives look fecking woeful. Please don't tell me its true!!! The first real swell of the season whacked by devil winds!!! Fark nooooo!!!!
Ty and upnorth; "Does Queensland ever get groundswells? This is a serious question I have been here since September 2013 and haven't seen anything above 13 seconds yet."
Ty, the answer is "rarely" if you are looking at 16+ seconds.... End of next week should be something in the 12 to 15 second bracket..... But what Qld lacks in "seconds", it gains in "surfabilty"... Heaps of "16 second" swells down here mate, with howling sw'ers on it.....
And Ty, you moved up there at the beginning of the worst time of year for Qld (Sept - Dec). It's like moving to the northshore Oahu in June, and complaining that Waimea hasn't broken..
Upnorth - Having spent 20 years in Coolum, I can tell you that an afternoon glass off on the sunny coast is as rare as the hottest chick in the pub coming up to you and asking to "go back to your place".. It does happen, it's a buzz when it does, and it's unforgettable.... It can happen during thunderstorm season (late spring,early summer), the surf is usually small, and there's always the chance of getting "zapped". It can also happen in winter - two scaenarios - one is the tail of a cold front moves through ( same front that sydney siders call a "southerly buster"). That generally isn't a "glass off", but more off a "sw offshore change". The other is a bit more technical. The winter jetstream will sometimes push moist upper level air across Alice Springs/ Mt Isa. It then combines with a slightly inland surface trough which often forms over on the great dividing range behind the sunny coast/ fraser island (moist pacific surface winds feeding in from east, dry desert winds on the western side - mountains causing shit to happen.....). So, in laymans terms, you've "shit goin' down" in the upper atmosphere, and directly below it you've got "shit goin' down" in the lower atmosphere...... This is when you get those "winter bomb" low pressure systems forming anywhere between Hervey bay and Nth NSW.... As the system is forming you'll get a strengthening easterly gale and rain picking up the swell dramatically... Once the system moves off the coast, BAM! The winds swing... Now, if you are lucky enough that this all occurs during the day and not overnight, you'll have clean conditions in the afternoon......
So, mate..... Just wink at the hot chick at the pub tonight..... never know your luck ;)
Cheers sheepdog good knowledge. Although If that analogy rings true I should be into late arvo glassy waves every weekend haha nah I won't hold my breath. Haven't been round these parts that long but defo get the impression its a case of fill your boots when you get the opportunity as generally one wind or another is wreaking havoc.
hehhe, ahh uppy.... Surf forecasting Qld/ nth NSW is a piece of piss, once you got it wired.... I won't use "big words". Even the word "hectopascle" scares me ;)
I'm getting old, uppy.... They used to call me the "guru" up your way... It might be time to hand on the tribal secrets......
Right..... here goes.....
Scoring in pineapple land;
There are only a few things to look for in regards to waves where you are.
Firstly, DISREGARD WAVE BUOYS.... Yeah, you fuckn heard me. Put your teeth back in.... They are a fantastic tool for W.A, South Oz etc, where you are tracking long distance long period groundswells... Not really needed where you are. A good novelty to maybe tell you the "precise moment" a cyclonic groundswell from Fiji will hit, but soon you wont even need to look.
Lesson 1 - Winter "bomb" lows. Sorta nearly covered it already. But that 'Upper level shit" that comes in from the west in winter, it comes in from the Timor sea, across the NT... May, June July, August, September, keep your eyes out on the cloud charts for a mass of cloud over the centre of Australia in winter, moving east, yet there's nothing on the surface chart - Light rain sometimes in Alice Springs..... Now, if at the same time there is a big high over NSW pushing in trades up your way ( which is a bit unseasonal in winter), things may happen. Look at the map..... The lines (isobars, millibars, hectopascals - whatever you wanna call em - we'll just call em fuckn lines), anyway, if the lines around the High make a sorta funny "dip" right on the great dividing range behind the sunny coast region, and they are slightly squeezed together, we're nearly there..... (Sometimes, a decent weather man will put a small trough mark there- looks a bit like broken road lines where you are allowed to overtake) When that upper shit moves over the top of the "dip in the lines", and if the easterlies start howling (again very odd in winter), and, it starts raining heavily (again very odd in winter) , it's BOMB TIME!!!!!! Here endeth lesson one.....
Lesson two - Close proximity cyclones.....Look at this chart.... Do your homework, And I'll get back to ya' :)http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/charts/charts.view.pl?idcode=IDX0102&file=...
I like it :)
I'm pretty lucky then that hot chick who picked me up, blind at the pub for some unkown reason ;)
Ended up marrying me.
Yeah, well I married a South Aussie chicky babe...... Flinders Park girl........ They buildem' fuckn tough in South Oz ;)
Looking at gold coast wave cams we have a fast rising easterly wind swell ,snapper comp will be on tmoro.
Lesson 2, "Close proximity cyclones"... See this map - http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/charts/charts.view.pl?idcode=IDX0102&file=... ( same map as above)
Ok... Note the cyclone is sitting on our side of New Caledonia, and it is far enough south ( away from the great barrier reef) to produce swell.... Now.... Note that high pressure system near Vicco.... Note the lines getting squeezed together off the QLD coast.... All pointing at the goldy and sunny coasts. Bread and freekn butter...... It'll be big, almost a "stormy", se winds 15 to20 which ruins the beachys, lots of water moving, 10 to 12 seconds
When you see this sort of map, it is time to scream HALLELUJAH!!!!!!! You know why?? Because you get to surf Noosa with all of your friends...... Yes a wonderous time.... Where we all gather in the national carpark and sing Kumbaya holding hands, sharing waves and parking spots, politely taking turns on the sets, and cheering eachother whilst questioning our sexuality....... Ohh the joy......
Here endeth lesson two......
udo wrote: Looking at gold coast wave cams we have a fast rising easterly wind swell ,snapper comp will be on tmoro.
It was pretty good this morning. I scored a 2 wave hold down on a 3-footer. That has never happened before.
I'd say they'll finish the chicks tomorrow morning maybe then run a few heats of the men's before the arvo high tide kills it. May then run a few remaining men's heats late before dark but if I were them I'd wait til Mon-wed for the men's. Much much better swell. Winds will be the X factor.
@Braithy can you give a dusk surf report.
udo wrote: @Braithy can you give a dusk surf report.
Sure mate. Only I'm confused as. We're about an hour shy of dusk, and she's actually dropped off from this morning.
I just came back from a quick suss of where I surfed this morning (after spending most of the day at a b'day at the beach), and it looks a foot smaller with about half the energy.
Winds have settled into a moderate to fresh SE pattern after swirling between straight onshore and ESE since about 10:30am at the beach.
I'm thinking the swell will have to start to ramp up any minute. It was building this morning from y'day, for sure. I checked it at 6:15 and it wasn't worth the effort, but by 8am it was as close as 3ft gets to pumping.
The swell pulsed on the incoming tide where every set for about 2hrs seemed like 3ft high and a foot thick where I was at. But right now she's mushy and dare i say it, a little weak.
So ... about 2ft of E swell with fresh SE winds at 5pm.
Plenty of fun small waves at Noosa all day, no major trends visible apart from a slight tidal push. A little inconsistent but 1-2ft at First Point with bigger waves around the corneradn especially across the open beaches. Super fun if you had the right kind of equipment.
ben have you seen the latest on next weeks cycloe betwwen Fiji and NZ . They've got it BOMBING intense , but with a more south Nth aligned fetch .... Cloudbreak ....
but still okay waves in SE QLD ... it seems to stall a little while it bombs .
then goes on and completely wipes NZ . even the sth isle gets a nudge
" SA's Reserve Capacity "
Free - I don't doubt that, I'm just talking about the presence of it in the first place...
Yeah southey, it's one heck of system. Gonna be waves in all kinds of funky places!
southey wrote: it seems to stall a little while it bombs .
then goes on and completely wipes NZ . even the sth isle gets a nudge
Southey would love to be on the Wairapa coast for that system, east- NE swell is great there.
ACCESS is making the West Coast look way more epic I recon! offshores to the sth of the low and about 5 fronts passing through this week... This guy should get amongst it https://www.facebook.com/WhiteCloud.SurfImagery?fref=ts
Early sunday morning, my fave wave of all time will be smokin..... Rare left and right reef in Qld, not for the faint hearted.... Favorable winds, or lack of...... High tide......
You'll notice just east of the 180 meridian, around 25 -30' south, on Monday night/Tuesday morning, a smaller secondary system... fairly tight fetch against high at 180/ 40s... The ocean will already have some "movement" by the time it gets swallowed up on Thursday by the larger system. It certianly wont hurt the situation.......
Not much happening on the sunny coast today snoop, the endless wind, maybe one day the stars will align. Good day for a roast.
Hey Sheepdog. This reef you speak of above, are you talking SE Qld rocky REEF or G.B.REEF ??
Who we roastin' ?
Nah.... The shit wind....... Upsy, if ya not workin' tomorrow, and you want some 3 foot semi clean stuff, I'd go the mid tide "secret spot", if there's sand in there at the moment that is.... Get there at 5.30am. It's a bit of a hike..... Take ya thongs.... You've gotta go past the nerada shrub till you get to the igneous rocks.... ;) Just hope there's sand in there..... and ps, sometimes it looks a bit "washy" from the shrub lookout, but when you get there it'll surprise you. Good luck....
The reef? hmmmmmmmm.......... A song/rhyme from the riddler... Figure it out ;)
"I've surfed every coast.
Some you won't believe.
But what I miss most,
is a diamond in the sea.........
From Kalbarri 'round to Byron.........
Old man dream Old W**** ******"....... ;)
Good song that one.........
Sheepie do you happen to be, dare I say it, a kneelo?
Sheepie, a bit easy to figure that one out don't you think?
then again, most won't go anyway
Heheheh....... Nope...... not a Kneelo. hehehehe... A weirdo yes..... But not a kneelo.
But hey!!! not that there's anything wrong with that.
And that's right... Used to take me a solid 20+ minutes paddling hardcore, and the reef aint no coffee rock or flat shelf.... She's nasty. I'll tell ya a story another time about the reef, one of those "oh shit moments".... Hurt and along way from the mainland...... just 4 of us out there... Another time.
ps - I didn't make those lyrics up, Mitch. Real song by some folk surf dude on the sunny coast.... Cool song...
yeah I know where ya talking now
Check this map Fitzy. The swell that Ben Matson has rightly called for next weekend will mainly be produced Tues thru Fri'. It'll tickle Qld on the weekend, but don't be surprised if some water starts moving around late Thursday onwards thanks to other factors. But on the map for Sunday, you'll notice a big "dead area" of no wind over SE Qld.. So....... Early early early mate...... No piss on Sat night.... Cos it'll be sheet glass up till ohhh, let's take a punt and say 9.00 am. Then the sea breeze will kick in...So paddle to those "reefs" before sun up, or organise a boat.... Some not so popular spots on the sunny coast will be all time, 6foot+ ..... Forget about Noosa.... Leave it to the mung beans..... maybe Sunshine in the pocket, Coolum bays, 3rd reef off stop rock , the airport stretch, bypass maroochydore/alex - sooooo freekn crowded...., or head to the southend of the coast - Wurtulla thru Kings....
ps - everywhere will be crowded. It'll blow you away... The local surf media will pump it up for the briso's to come up and spend money..... Noosa and Alex will be a writeoff being a weekend and all....http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast.php?type=rain®ion=swp&noofdays=7
Hey SDog. Would appreciate some discretion in naming spots mate. Let the muppets work it out for themselves rather than you guiding them please champ!!!
Sheepdog are you drunk? I swear some people must enjoy surfing in crowds. I'm with don no need to start naming locations it might not seem like much but enough people start opening their big mouths and a mellow crowd of 10 turns into a horde of 30. Sunny coast surfers are mostly pretty laid back but start advertising the limited good waves we get I'm sure some would not be so mellow.
Please shut the fuck up sheepdog.
ha ! Competition breeds Excellence . Competing for waves never hurt nobody.The best surfers in the world come from crowded locales'.
I say send 50 out and let 'em sort it out for themselves, like on the footy field, while half of 'em are bitchin' , swingin', n' whingin, the game goes straight on.
The last 2 world champs from Australia, were ?? ?? from ?? ??
Penrith and nambour.....
Hahaha, I know the area well sheepy, but my playgrounds these days are uncrowded and only accessible by boat. You couldn't and wouldn't paddle there unlike your other "reef" above.
Heed the boys advice above sheepy, many a man before you has been burnt for blabbering.
rees0 wrote: Penrith and nambour.....
Don weather, Rees0, you blokes are trippin... right...... No, fair fucken dinkum.....The local sunny coast channel7 , channel 9, AND the brisbane ch7 , channel 9 surf reports on a friday night will blair out not only these spots, but many others to millions of SE qld surfers.... When last there, it was Robbie Sherwell doin' it.......
So Rees0, phone Sunny coast legend Robbie Sherwell up and tell him to keep his mouth shut...... Don't just stick it to me...... Tell him to "shut the fuck up"..... Nah, knew you wouldn't......
Same goes with this bloke here, Spinksy. Listen to what spots he mentions..... Go on....http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2WezSieaIU
You know, Don, your argument is a paradox... Here we are on swellnet, with swellnet working every surfer on the net into a frenzy about a cyclone swell predicted to hit S.E Qld in a week. So you guys have already probably attracted countless souls to the region. I mention a few spots where I lived for 2 fuckn decades, and you're down my throat. You want everyone at Noosa, mate... Fuck the noosa locals, Right...... A rival to Swellnet has cameras at the spots I have mentioned... So to sum up, these "protected" spots amongst the urban sprawl that is now the Sunshine coast are televised on Ch7 at 6.25pm on fri/sat, ch9 at 6.25pm on fri/sat, are broadcasted on Spinksy webcam AND NAMED,,, and have cameras for the whole world to see.
Do you think I'd do it in Southern NSW?, SA?, Tassie? Nahh mate... And there's only about 200 true locals left on the coast anyway... Most have move to get away from the two minute blow in locals like Rees0.
Irukandji jellyfish reef, filthy left hander in Nulunbouy, just out of Gove NT.
Don't tell anyone, don't take porn, alcohol or any cigarettes.
Haha nice. ok the only older crew I see charging reefs on the Sunny Coast (clowntown end) are kneelos.
And I second Don's call...ESPECIALLY when it comes to sth end. Point taken that you're not the only one and not the worst, most won't go, competition breeds excellence... but just cos someone else does it, doesn't make it right. I agree with Rees0, most SC surfers are pretty laid back, and it'd be good to keep it that way.
Sheepo Doggie might be giving some muppets a clue.........?
But really it could be cranking just west of there.
I mean real West.
NW, WNW, sw, SWSWWW, WWWWSWS WEST,
That'll keep them guessing.