The land of the Long White Cloud

mick-free's picture
mick-free started the topic in Wednesday, 24 Sep 2014 at 5:21pm

Got a week at home for school holidays in Northland NZ, current long range models have a 4-6m SW Swell for West Coast 3rd and 4th October and a very rare 3m east swell for 30th Sep - 1st Oct. The East Coast have some incredible set-ups that lay dormant for sometimes years. Its moved around a fair bit the last two days but interested in opinions, WAMS looking pretty tasty - what do you reckon??

thermalben's picture
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thermalben commented Wednesday, 24 Sep 2014 at 6:20pm

Still a long way away Mick - that low north of NZ looks like it'll happen but it could bring a lot of wind and rain to the region. Should clear though within the first few days of the following week so that'd be a good time to capitalise on the East Coast. 

Winds look good for the West Coast for the first half of that week too but let's keep an eye on the models (also suggesting a big Raglan swell at the end of the week!).

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mick-free commented Wednesday, 24 Sep 2014 at 9:00pm

Ben was thinking Shippies too if it is super big. Really needs a 6m + SW swell for it to get the wrap on.

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

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bigkiwisi commented Wednesday, 24 Sep 2014 at 9:05pm

Some spots in the Naki will be on too!

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog commented Thursday, 25 Sep 2014 at 11:23am

Mick.... Your timing is perfect..... Ne coast...... Huge...... Gisbourne coast too as the low moves.......

Sheepdog

mick-free's picture
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mick-free commented Thursday, 25 Sep 2014 at 11:38am

Here's the long range. With offshores predicted looks pretty good.

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

Craig's picture
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Craig commented Thursday, 25 Sep 2014 at 11:41am

Jeez Mick, that low developing under Australia and then pushing on to NZ is a monster. If it comes off you can chase huge Shippies and then monster Cloudbreak, one of the biggest swells we've seen in a couple of years if it currently comes off as forecast.

Other models aren't as keen on it, so we'll wait and see.

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog commented Thursday, 25 Sep 2014 at 12:44pm

Mick - check low off east NZ here -

Sheepdog

mick-free's picture
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mick-free commented Thursday, 25 Sep 2014 at 12:56pm

Wow that ECL low is tight sheepy? Pretty exciting so many set-ups to explore.

Whats the travel time Craig 4-5 days?? If it does come off as forecast, there will be a mass crew flying in. Especially with the worldwide release of Talon's Thundercloud movie and premiere's in the US.

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

Craig's picture
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Craig commented Thursday, 25 Sep 2014 at 1:05pm

Looking at Monday the 6th if it comes off.

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mick-free commented Thursday, 25 Sep 2014 at 1:07pm

And Shippies is forecasting 8.0m @17 secs for the 4/10, still long way out but.

http://www.swellnet.com/reports/new-zealand/northland/shipwreck-bay/fore...

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

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mick-free commented Thursday, 25 Sep 2014 at 2:45pm

Craig wrote:

Jeez Mick, that low developing under Australia and then pushing on to NZ is a monster. If it comes off you can chase huge Shippies and then monster Cloudbreak, one of the biggest swells we've seen in a couple of years if it currently comes off as forecast.

Other models aren't as keen on it, so we'll wait and see.

Fiji is due though for a big swell hasn't been one all year! Fly in at 9:30am on the Monday so would miss it by a day if tired to chase it....it's popped up on the Fiji forecast though at 3.6m @ 17seconds for the Monday 4th, perfect SSW direction. Considering Iast year it was 2.4m at 16 seconds and was 8-10 with 12 foot wash throughs, then add another metre. Yikes.

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

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Sheepdog commented Thursday, 25 Sep 2014 at 3:01pm

Mick.. was just speaking to me best mate, spart the kiwi.... if at the start (29th/30th) of this ecl, it happens to be throwing a north swell or nne swell, let me know.... I'll put you on to one of the best rights in kiwi land.... Mysto break..... Only in North swells or big nne swells....... reef barrel.......

Sheepdog

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mick-free commented Thursday, 25 Sep 2014 at 3:14pm

Yes yes!!! Its a tricky one the pure North swells for NZ, there are only a couple of spots that I know truly work. Maybe the first part of the fetch throws out a North swell to begin proceedings.....

I will be based at Mangiwhai Heads if that helps.

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

Craig's picture
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Craig commented Thursday, 25 Sep 2014 at 3:17pm

Latest updates aren't indicating too much north in the swell at all.

Straighter E/NE for a very brief period and then straight E'ly then E/SE.

Big downgrade on the low and CB swell as well.

wellymon's picture
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wellymon commented Saturday, 27 Sep 2014 at 12:04pm

Nice looking system for East coasters, October...?

Inzider you should do a road run SE...!

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

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mick-free commented Saturday, 27 Sep 2014 at 12:38pm

Yeah Craig just seen the fetch nothing from the North.

Welly - wow there will be some crazy lineups next week that's a beast. Its pretty fast moving though.

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

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caml commented Saturday, 27 Sep 2014 at 1:55pm

Will fiji cb get swell from the sw or the ecl ? Sorry i havent studied anything just a dumb question

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caml commented Saturday, 27 Sep 2014 at 1:58pm

Ok just checked it would be a souwest swell

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mick-free commented Saturday, 27 Sep 2014 at 10:30pm

Camel, I don't know how CB would fare in a SE swell, there would definitely be a se flank off that low to go to Fiji I think.

Craig, 7 days out and Shipwrecks is forecasting 25 feet @17 seconds, with a peak 9.2m.

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

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caml commented Sunday, 28 Sep 2014 at 1:03am

Mickfree your frothing & now im too . About cloudbreak or any wave created by that storm progged a week out . And yeah the cloudbreak forecast shows swell from both sw & sth angles at various stages . Happy that my question wasnt as dumb afterall . I want to go there , need ticket ...

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caml commented Sunday, 28 Sep 2014 at 1:05am

Shipwreks eh ? W h eres that ?

wellymon's picture
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wellymon commented Sunday, 28 Sep 2014 at 2:19am

Ask Inzider Caml....! ;)

I bet he would pick you up at the airport and take you there free of cost inNZer style.

But its not known as a wave the size that you like.

Maybe even get you a jacket to wear with "Crazy Horse" on the back:)
If you watch a NZ film called "Boy" you will understand.
Good luck, Peace out.

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

mick-free's picture
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mick-free commented Tuesday, 30 Sep 2014 at 12:10pm

Camel, there is a strong SW airflow forecasted over all of NZ when that swell hits so there will be XL waves but no where good. But Cloudbreak on the other hand has low tide Monday morning the 6th with trades. So if that forecast holds that will be the place.

A massive swell wraps into the bay and is offshore in SW wind. Wouldn't be an Xl spot for you Camel, I mean a 9m swell will wrap 6-8 foot at the main point. And checking today its already back down to 7m. There are a few XXL spots along the Northland coastline including a gnasty slab. Problem is winds needed are NE or light.

On the other side Gizzy will have a big day next Wednesday with an off shore bombie for the local crew.

Pretty exciting forecast, best to get Craig to have a closer look.

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

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caml commented Sunday, 28 Sep 2014 at 3:30pm

Ok nice thanks for the headsup will have look at the link .

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caml commented Sunday, 28 Sep 2014 at 3:37pm

Not much on that link but thats ok . I aint goin nowhere . Wouldnt mind trying cloudbreak ( Big )

inzider's picture
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inzider commented Sunday, 28 Sep 2014 at 6:43pm

Sent a oz cobber up to shippes a few months back and he scored it the best its been in 5 years (local call)
He was fizzing at the bung to say the least. I reckon that low off east will possibly have good waves down david greys local . Maybe some coromental action in the loop too. Naki is 100kmh SE today, good luck in ya quest.
Welly , what about your why ra rapper jem that rimes with shit? winds not too flash

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mick-free commented Monday, 29 Sep 2014 at 8:39pm

Here's the Shippies forecast......whats amazing was that the SN models picked this swell up last Wednesday 4-6m then kicked it up Thursday 8m and Friday to 9m, then downgraded it Saturday and now she is back to 9m+. The entire Western Coast of New Zealand will be awash with onshore WSW winds with only a few sheltered places surfable.

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

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caml commented Monday, 29 Sep 2014 at 11:15pm

Yeah ? So why are u allowed to mention this shipwrecks place but not other frozen shark colonies ?

seaman-staines's picture
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seaman-staines commented Tuesday, 30 Sep 2014 at 5:59am

Good point caml. The unmentionable spot is a shark infested, isloated, huge wave at the bottom of the South Island whereas Shippies is within driving distance of NZ's biggest city and relatively easy to surf and even easier to score with advanced forecasting. Maybe he doesn't have any mates who live up that way?

inzider's picture
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inzider commented Tuesday, 30 Sep 2014 at 9:10am

Saying the word shippies after someone prior had put a web link detailing location is hardly being hypocritical. However the last fatality via GW was just north of Auckland last summer. There are many varieties that breed in the north. Noah is lurking everywhere. With our west coast dirty water you just dont see them very often, kind like loud mouth ozzies. Generally only GC skippies will be found around the coast I surf. Thankfully.

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Sheepdog commented Tuesday, 30 Sep 2014 at 10:44am

In the meantime, east coast north island is pumping.....

Sheepdog

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mick-free commented Tuesday, 30 Sep 2014 at 12:29pm

Righto I removed the link to the spot. Sorry if I have offended viewers disclosing the location. I'm pretty sure it's like disclosing the Snapper is the spot to go to in SE wind, anyway move on.

Yes and downgrade to 7.5m for the West Coast. NE coasts on the build options aplenty.

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

seaman-staines's picture
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seaman-staines commented Tuesday, 30 Sep 2014 at 2:26pm

@mick-free

I wouldn't worry about it, everyone I know has been there and every surfer in NZ knows exactly where it is, for most it's not easy to get because a. you need that swell b. you need the right wind (this is West Coast NZ not a ballooners paradise) c. you need to get there (it's a long way from most)

No wave of that quality is going to stay secret for long, especially in place like NZ. I think I know of or at least could ask someone about most of the supposed secret spots in NZ but reality is most are super fickle or a real mission to get to on the particular day you need to get there.

Some of my fellow countrymen have a bit of an insular outlook about how much everyone else gives a shit about their little secret but in reality there are very few places that a traveler with the right attitude will have a problem. I think the worst stretch for angry locals would be places on the cape and maybe Hawkes Bay/Argentina, what?

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Sheepdog commented Tuesday, 30 Sep 2014 at 5:14pm

Mick, what's happening off the east coast...

Sheepdog

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Sheepdog commented Wednesday, 1 Oct 2014 at 1:12pm

Mick, that secret cluster of righthanders I wrote to you about is currently 8 foot plus. and off it's fuckn nut.... Shame you couldn't get there, "bro"..... ;)

Sheepdog

Craig's picture
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Craig commented Wednesday, 1 Oct 2014 at 1:25pm

Don't worry about Mick, he's been scoring 8-10ft freight train lefts, WOTD to come over the coming days :D

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog commented Wednesday, 1 Oct 2014 at 2:12pm

Seen em' craig..... I'm in the loop ..... Oh, btw , 6 to 8 where he is........That spot is a bit sheltered..... ;p

Sheepdog

Blowin's picture
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Blowin commented Wednesday, 1 Oct 2014 at 2:25pm

wellymon wrote: Ask Inzider Caml....! ;)

I bet he would pick you up at the airport and take you there free of cost inNZer style.

But its not known as a wave the size that you like.

Maybe even get you a jacket to wear with "Crazy Horse" on the back:)
If you watch a NZ film called "Boy" you will understand.
Good luck, Peace out.

"How was Japan ? "

" I rooted Chardonnay"

Mean as movie Welly.

wellymon's picture
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wellymon commented Wednesday, 1 Oct 2014 at 6:19pm

Blowin Classic

"Shogun" His Hero.

I only watched "Boy" offshore a week ago, Geez that brought back memories growing up as a young fella in the early 70's
My best mates were Maori descent from the "PA" a bike ride away, called Hongeka Bay, and a very fickle right hander that broke occasionally.
These times were memories that I will never forget and so true to the viewing of "Boy" but a little harder in a way....!

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

mick-free's picture
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mick-free commented Wednesday, 1 Oct 2014 at 8:07pm

wow what a day....arms are gone. Full cyclone style surf, close periods, non stop waves. Stayed same size all day 6-8 foot with the seldom 10 footer with the biggest set of waves on dark. In the lineup it looked like Cloudbreak out there today. The Mount was out of control same for Whanga Bar and Tairoa I heard was 10 foot. A few secluded spots were off tits. and geez Sheepy that spot would have been crazy. What's the call for tomorrow - dropping fast?

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

seaman-staines's picture
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seaman-staines commented Wednesday, 1 Oct 2014 at 8:33pm

@mick-free Where'd you surf? I saw some pics of the Mount but couldn't tell how big it was. Sad news a 5yo washed off the beach around the side of the Mount, lost at sea.

I've seen the Mt go from 10ft to lake flat over night in the past. Geez if you could get Whanga at the 4-5ft mark you'd be happy.

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mick-free commented Wednesday, 1 Oct 2014 at 8:44pm

Heard whanga too big but a similar named break close by was all time. Just watched news - WTF is going on that someone would let the kid into the water?

Surfed a different bar morning and evening. Here's a shot, you will recognise the rock.

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

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Sheepdog commented Wednesday, 1 Oct 2014 at 10:32pm

Either head up to Northland east coast which will catch remnants.... Or Gisbourne coast - pumping.... or 3rd option - rest arms for shippys ;)

Sheepdog

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seaman-staines commented Thursday, 2 Oct 2014 at 4:19am

That paddle looks fun. I've never surfed that particular wave but have seen pics of it looking good, looks solid in your pic. I think I know where you mean that sounds like Whanga and yeah it would have been pumping, the locals love it when half the Mount turn up there.

yocal's picture
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yocal commented Thursday, 2 Oct 2014 at 9:13am

WOTD is an absolute cracker

Go deeper Taylor, go deeper!

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mick-free commented Thursday, 2 Oct 2014 at 9:41am

Cheers yocal, heard it got this good, but never actually been back home when its been that good. Will post a couple more but got to go fishing

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

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Craig commented Thursday, 2 Oct 2014 at 10:07am

So good hey Yocal!

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leckiep commented Thursday, 2 Oct 2014 at 10:23am

Sick WOTD photo (and the other ones)!
Talk of Whanga Bar brings back memories - was lucky enough to score it at 4-6+ a couple of years ago while in the area. Won't be forgetting about that for a while, such epic country too. Froth Froth, what a forum!

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mick-free commented Friday, 3 Oct 2014 at 6:01am

couple frames from the other day

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

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mick-free commented Friday, 3 Oct 2014 at 6:09am

Sheepy that swell was still holding at 4-5 foot yesterday morning, then was pretty much gone by the arvo. Nothing here now. Be on the road to west coast today. Photos are a bit overexposed, I'm not a photographer haha.

Mick Free FIFOFOMO