Bells Rip Curl Pro

maddogmorley's picture
maddogmorley started the topic in Monday, 23 Mar 2015 at 10:48am

Too early for a long range forecast for Bells?

Hoping it's gonna be better than the goldy was.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Monday, 23 Mar 2015 at 10:54am

Still pretty early right now but long range models are suggesting a blocking pattern across the near swell window around the start of the waiting period.. which wouldn't result in any decent swell and/or favourable conditions for the first third.

Dunno if I'd look too much into it at this early stage though. A lot can happen between now and then, especially in the Southern Ocean.

maddogmorley's picture
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maddogmorley commented Monday, 23 Mar 2015 at 11:19am

Thanks Ben - Bells has reasonable small wave backup venues at least - I remember seeing it run at Phillip Island one year (wasnt great but contestable) and Johanna's another....fingers crossed for 6ft Bells tho with NW winds!

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog commented Monday, 23 Mar 2015 at 11:19am

Yeah, as ben said, and also I think southey somewhere else, looks like a worry....... But one chart has hope..... I'm not a bells swell expert.... Faaaaar from it.... But can anyone tell me if this setup would produce waves at bells, and what size?

Qld bloggers also note TD waaaay out in the pacific......

Sheepdog

thermalben's picture
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thermalben commented Monday, 23 Mar 2015 at 11:54am

One chart in isolation doesn't say much SD - we need to know where that low came from, and where it's going.

For example, a low that develops close to WA and tracks SE through that position will generate very little swell for Bells. However, a polar low that forms close to the ice shelf and tracks NE through that position would generate a potentially large swell for Bells.

And all of the variations between, of course.

Craig's picture
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Craig commented Monday, 23 Mar 2015 at 11:55am

SD, what Ben said ^^

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Monday, 23 Mar 2015 at 12:01pm

Bells comp at Phillip Is ...really....when was that ?

maddogmorley's picture
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maddogmorley commented Monday, 23 Mar 2015 at 12:08pm

About 10yrs ago from memory - was held at Woolamai and won by Trent Munro I think.

thermalben's picture
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thermalben commented Monday, 23 Mar 2015 at 12:08pm

Yeah I was there for the Phillip Island event ('05? '06?). Wasn't much swell around and the banks at Johanna were shot, so everyone trooped over to PI to finish off the event in fun beachies at Woolamai. By memory Trent Munro won the event, defeating Andy Irons (who had won the world title the year before).

maddogmorley's picture
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maddogmorley commented Monday, 23 Mar 2015 at 12:10pm

Seems our memories aren't too bad eh Ben...hehe

udo's picture
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udo commented Monday, 23 Mar 2015 at 12:11pm

Yep 2005.

floyd's picture
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floyd commented Monday, 23 Mar 2015 at 12:37pm

Oscar the Grouch here.

I'm hoping for a flat 2 weeks and/or blowing SE all over Vicco during the contest period, followed by an epic autumn swell season.

Let the circus roll on to some other place and fuck it up I say.

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog commented Monday, 23 Mar 2015 at 12:38pm

thermalben wrote:

One chart in isolation doesn't say much SD - we need to know where that low came from, and where it's going.

For example, a low that develops close to WA and tracks SE through that position will generate very little swell for Bells. However, a polar low that forms close to the ice shelf and tracks NE through that position would generate a potentially large swell for Bells.

And all of the variations between, of course.

thanks for that.... Looks to come in to picture on the 50s line heading ese..... I note another low behind that on the 2nd/3rd..... But as you said, still a long way out.....

Sheepdog

southey's picture
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southey commented Monday, 23 Mar 2015 at 1:16pm

Sheepdog wrote:
thermalben wrote:

One chart in isolation doesn't say much SD - we need to know where that low came from, and where it's going.

For example, a low that develops close to WA and tracks SE through that position will generate very little swell for Bells. However, a polar low that forms close to the ice shelf and tracks NE through that position would generate a potentially large swell for Bells.

And all of the variations between, of course.

thanks for that.... Looks to come in to picture on the 50s line heading ese..... I note another low behind that on the 2nd/3rd..... But as you said, still a long way out.....

this was my input the other day ...

southey wrote: " Friday, 20 Mar 2015 at 2:36pm
ACB__ wrote:Definitely got off lightly. Can't believe he gets to surf bells.
Must be a Gillette staff member working for WSL.

Have you had a look at the long range forecast , perhaps no one from the WSL tour will get to surf bells ........ kind of not looking much like any dream tour . MR looks to get good waves prior to bells contest , i hope they get waves after it other wise this years tour and perhaps any after will be down the girglar . Just imagine getting skunked for waves 3 comps in a row , Hughie along with many others must not like the stench coming from this new WSL carcass .?!

SD , that low is of Sub tropical origin , note even though it is down quite low ( high lattitudes ) that it has no connection to the the polar systems either side of it and more important below .
Since Friday i have seen an increase in westerly component swell running into the start for the Bells waiting period . This may open up a glimmer of hope , as multiple fast moving weak fronts ( as in little Sth/Nth change ) with extremely long fetch can provide the large swell periods of westerly component that helps smaller height swells refract . Alternatively Places SE of the Wooly coast love that Swell direction ....
Better still WSL is toast .

" SA's Reserve Capacity "

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog commented Monday, 23 Mar 2015 at 1:44pm

Southey,,, yeah that low seems to form out of a trough that is expected to move over water off the S.E african coast 28th or there abouts.. It then tracks east by ese as a bit of muck, and interacts with some polar air around 110e 40s...... As it passes under NZ post 2/4, it officially joins the 60s club lol......

So you think the next potential low in the 60s conveyor belt is better positioned? (map below - 120e 60s)

And BTW.... I like toast.......

Sheepdog

morris's picture
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morris commented Monday, 23 Mar 2015 at 2:29pm

floyd wrote: Oscar the Grouch here.

I'm hoping for a flat 2 weeks and/or blowing SE all over Vicco during the contest period, followed by an epic autumn swell season.

Let the circus roll on to some other place and fuck it up I say.


X2 :-))
Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog commented Monday, 23 Mar 2015 at 2:42pm

Floyd..... Victoria has been fucked since "Jeff" was premier and the AFL banned the hip and shoulder ..... , Ablett senior, Carey, Dermy, even little Libba wouldn't get a game these days.... As for Plugger, David Rhys Jones, Jacko, Dippa, Don Scott, and Lethal, well they'd be jailed....

2 weeks of mung beans spending money in Torquay aint gonna hurt anyone lol

Sheepdog

shaun's picture
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shaun commented Monday, 23 Mar 2015 at 3:11pm

X3 floydy,
Hip and shoulder has never been banned in the AFL daggybum, go back to politics ,you know nothing about Victoria or AFL, surprized you didn't refer to him as Pucker;-))))

I'm the scab you keep picking off and is there again the next day.

brutus's picture
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brutus commented Monday, 23 Mar 2015 at 3:15pm

Actually when Trent won the event at Philip Island...there was not one heat at Bells that year.....

looks like small swell start for the event.......but today was great!!!!

looks like weds /thurs pretty good also....

also guys they cannot move the event anywhere from good Friday to the Tuesday......

floyd's picture
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floyd commented Monday, 23 Mar 2015 at 3:28pm

Sheepy ... pretty much nailed it .... especially the surf.

On footy I saw Mark Harvey line up Diesel Williams from the back row of the Southern Stand once .... it was poetry, one of the best things I've ever seen on a footy field, it was a genuine hip and shoulder but some of the players you list were just plain thugs and they should have been jailed.

Saw Lethal break the point post at Windy Hill. What you will not hear about Lethal is how many junior recruits at Hawthorn he put out/off of the game permanently. Alan Jeans used him to test recruits nerve, fail the test and it was "go home son VFL footy isn't for you". Lethal was big on running through 17 year olds and breaking their jaws, noses or whatever he could hit.

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog commented Monday, 23 Mar 2015 at 3:50pm

Floyd..... I was in the southern outer pocket at Moorabbin for the saints last ever home game before moving to Waverley.... Saw Plugger nail Alistair Lynch (Fitzroy) into the fence.... Thought he killed him.... Plugger got dragged by Sheldon..... No camera angles picked it up clearly.... If they had've, plugger would've got 10....... Instead, he walked free lol...
Was also at Moorabbin as a kid in ,,,, was it 78 or 79..... The bloodbath between the saints and the dons.... Mad dog, Van der haar.... Was there with my dad, 3 uncles, and my grand dad ( all blues supporters, but they spoilt me when i came down for holidays).... pa was whinging at the start about not being at the blues game, but when the punches started flying, he was enthralled.... Unbelievable.... One of the nastiest spiteful games I have ever witnessed... had a pretty good side that year... Saints and the dons were sitting 1 and 2 on the ladder.... Rex Hunt was at the saints.... By memory, 12 saints and 8 dons were suspended for multiple weeks.... Both sides just missed the finals.....

ps- Van der haar kicked a goal after the siren..... But saints were up by 12....... Saints by a goal..... ;)

Sheepdog

wellymon's picture
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wellymon commented Monday, 23 Mar 2015 at 4:24pm

Gay FL and WSL.......?
Sounds like Bells.

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog commented Monday, 23 Mar 2015 at 5:18pm

wellymon wrote: Gay FL and WSL.......?
Sounds like Bells.

One word for ya, welly...... hopoate ...... No sticking your finger up your opponents arse in AFL, mate,,,, Or packing a scrum and hanging on to eachothers balls as you sniff anus...... Here is some footage of a typical league player.....

Photo deleted due to morris being a whinging whining pissbreath.... ( was photo of Todd carney and that infamous gargoyle night)

Now here is some footage of a typical AFL player.....

Sheepdog

morris's picture
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morris commented Monday, 23 Mar 2015 at 5:07pm

Classy pics sheepshit, do you lower t'he tone of everything you touch?

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog commented Monday, 23 Mar 2015 at 5:10pm

Ok, I'll delete it for you you whinging peice of shit....

Sheepdog

morris's picture
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morris commented Monday, 23 Mar 2015 at 5:23pm

Well kids read this, but then they move on cause they realise it's below them

troppo dichotomy's picture
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troppo dichotomy commented Monday, 23 Mar 2015 at 5:27pm

WTF?OMG!
Sheepdog that foto was gnarly!!
havent tried but read a short book on it n they said its good for u???just dont drink other peoples!only your own....i guess that guy read the same book!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog commented Monday, 23 Mar 2015 at 5:51pm

Apparently it's good for foot calluses, Troppo.... But the June Dally Watkins of swellnet has spoken... As we have seen over the past few weeks, he practices what he preaches... So best do what his royalness says....

Anyways, hoping the saints may win 5 games this year..... :/

Sheepdog

morris's picture
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morris commented Monday, 23 Mar 2015 at 6:14pm

Well its not that trashy Facebook page you have, I would post a link to it but but you'd start quoting rules, as you do when it suits.

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog commented Monday, 23 Mar 2015 at 7:09pm

Ohhhhh Ouch!!!!

Sheepdog

wellymon's picture
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wellymon commented Monday, 23 Mar 2015 at 7:12pm

I'm a true blue Union man Sheepio and follow with pride the best Union team in the world throughout history, not Leauge;)
Hopoate was disgraceful IMO, as well as what you posted above, that's dirty play mate, no good IMO.
But hey thats what you get with aerial ping pong eh :-P

Now come on fellas back to ringing the Bell now;)

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

mitchvg's picture
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mitchvg commented Monday, 23 Mar 2015 at 7:17pm

Wooly coast?

wellymon's picture
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wellymon commented Monday, 23 Mar 2015 at 8:27pm

Hey Mitch Very Good, thats a little bit funny coming from you;)

Anyways sorry for being off topic here but just watched SBS news, the Ozzie boys with the Waratahs and Brumbies with Homophobic slurs....?
AFL well known for the use of ICE before the game....?
WTF.

Back to the Bell.
Cricket...? maybe........!

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

morris's picture
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morris commented Monday, 23 Mar 2015 at 8:34pm

floyd wrote: Oscar the Grouch here.

I'm hoping for a flat 2 weeks and/or blowing SE all over Vicco during the contest period, followed by an epic autumn swell season.

Let the circus roll on to some other place and fuck it up I say.


A direct south wind would be better, howling of course
mitchvg's picture
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mitchvg commented Tuesday, 24 Mar 2015 at 6:38pm

Haha yeah Welly it is... But still, Wooly Coast?

wellymon's picture
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wellymon commented Tuesday, 24 Mar 2015 at 6:50pm

On the chin bro, on the chin.
But did you answer my question Mitch Very Good.
Are you living in Vic now........?

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog commented Tuesday, 24 Mar 2015 at 7:16pm

He'll be back after 7.30 AEDT... He's watching "if you are the one"..... ;)
Good show, mitch.... I hooked now ya mongrel lol

Sheepdog

southey's picture
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southey commented Tuesday, 24 Mar 2015 at 9:08pm

welly ,
your very self conscious of you " Uthnentucity " I think MVG was refering to my post .
at which case , mitch get out a map mate .....

" SA's Reserve Capacity "

wellymon's picture
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wellymon commented Tuesday, 24 Mar 2015 at 9:17pm

Never self conscious of myself at all Southey
How dare you ,
You should contact Morris ,
I say.
or maybe Shaunio:)

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

mitchvg's picture
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mitchvg commented Tuesday, 24 Mar 2015 at 10:06pm

Nah all good, I'm down here for a bit and boy oh boy can a specific beachie hold size better than ya NNSW magnets. Gotta work for it but or you'll end up in Tassie. No time for tele Sheepy but glad you enjoy it!

But yeah thought I might be missing some specific, local agricultural reference; as opposed to a name shortening. Only thing is there's a lot of straight beach there too, and depends on petition of H's E flank. Anyway, I'll suss it out.