First ECL of the season?
Not sure how you know it's from tropical infeed from indonesia but GFS seems to have been progging it for a few days now. The only differences being the date and latitude it forms at. I guess something is going to happen and it looks to be very dynamic. Good luck to the forecasters on this one.
An inland trough extending from northern Australia is dragging in tropical moisture from the Indian Ocean/Indonesia. Have a look at a Sat pic. Very obvious.
An upper trough is expected to move up from the bight this week.
Bammo.
As to what will happen (and where, more importantly)........we wait and see.
Some pretty major changes across the models in the last couple of days. EC's been the most consistent (and plausible) of the lot - as per usual - however it's still early days.
Will an ECL generally mean onshore winds for SEQLD?
depends where it forms...if the axis of the low is to the south of SE QLD then winds will tend more W to SW as it forms.
strike that ...reverse it.
Models have gone right off the idea now.
Yup.
Models firming on something solid firing up over the weekend, based on a tropical infeed from Indonesia/PNG into an inland trough.
Thoughts?