Surf and wind Forecast in Australia are very reliable 5-7 days ahead. Forecaster notes give even more reliability.
In France , surf forecast seems to be reliable only 2-3 days ahead with radical change in forecast less than a week ahead. ( been using allo surf and others)
Is there a geographical reason that make harder to get good forecast in France or is it just the quality of the forecaster in Oz that make the difference?
How long ahead are reliable forecast in Uk or other European country?
There are lots of factors that infuence the reliability of forecasts at various time periods.
France (using Hossegor as an exmaple, link below) is generally quite good 5-7 days, when there are broad, slow moving low pressure systems developing off Greenland, generating NW swells.
Just like any coastline, local systems play havoc with the short range forecast.
Additionally, at this time of the year, the Iberian Peninsula shelters France from south-west groundswells (sometimes originating from US-based hurricanes), even when they track into the North Atlantic. So without knowing exactly what you're looking at, this may be also having an effect on what you're seeing at the beach compared to the forecast.
Otherwise, the model guidance for France is the same as it is for Australia, so theoretically shouldn't be much different.
Will check this out at the end of September ! ( may take the traveller forecast, thx for proposing such a service)