Tropical Cyclone for Solomon Islands?

thermalben's picture
thermalben started the topic in Monday, 30 Oct 2017 at 8:59am

None of the forecasting agencies (JTWC, RSMC-Nadi, BOM) have anything mentioned, though the models are showing a small tropical low intensifying as it drifts southwards along the east coast of the Solomon Islands. In fact by Thursday morning GFS is expecting a small area of 50kt winds on its NE flank. Which is, actually within SE Qld's swell window. Hmmm......

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Monday, 30 Oct 2017 at 9:01am



thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Monday, 30 Oct 2017 at 9:06am

Needs to be pointed out that EC and ACCESS don't like this situation, but we are within T96 so it's certainly worth tabling for consideration.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog commented Monday, 30 Oct 2017 at 11:42am

It aint gonna happen..... Now if that big high out past NZ was sitting right off NSW, creating a perfect cradle with deep moist warm easterlies on the southern flank of the low, there'd be an outside chance.

Sheepdog

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Monday, 30 Oct 2017 at 1:34pm

Don't always need a cradling high for cyclogenesis, especially this early in the season...plenty of small ones spin up and jet off into the South Pac without note. Or wander around aimlessly for a while.
Not much chance of surf without the cradling ridge though.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Monday, 30 Oct 2017 at 2:50pm

It's unlikely it'll form, and almost certainly won't produce any swell for us (fetch was still 2,200km from SE Qld!) - but I put it up there as it was an interesting model outcome for the next few days - normally we see good agreement by now but there's quite a bit of divergence. 

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog commented Monday, 30 Oct 2017 at 3:31pm

I know that FR..... Just stating the odds are far better with a 2000 km east to ne fetch.
So are you calling it?
I'll stick by my it aint happening.

Sheepdog

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Monday, 30 Oct 2017 at 4:15pm

nah.....just saying