Submitted by surfari63 on Wed, 06/01/2016 - 17:43
I am heading to The Maldives for 12 days early June - the forecasters out there, Don and others, have been spot on with feedback when I have put a call out in the past. Anyone able to assist with a forecast from 7th June as the date gets closer ? many thanks...
Mr Don Weather, we are staring to get pretty excited about 11 days on a boat in the southern outer atolls from the 18th of this month. I've been watching the models over teh past couple of days and wondered if you have any thoughts on what we might expect swell wise? Thanks in advance !!
Sorry only had a really quick look. Will try and look further tomorrow. It's not looking great based on the latest forecast. Mix of mid period SE swell and S'ly groundswell but I can't see much above 2-3ft at present from either swell.
Thanks Don, fingers crossed we get something a bit chunkier than 2-3 foot...?!
Best best is to go to the SE swell magnets as this is the dominant swell for your first week there. In fact your first few days could be 3-4ft at these SE swell magnets, dropping back to 2-3ft around Tues 20th onwards. Long range models are showing some potential for a south groundswell of a little more substance during the last few days of your trip (around 27th/28th) but this is a long way out and also models are only showing something in the order of 3-4ft for it also. I'll keep ya posted if anything else pops up.
Nice one Don, very much appreciate you taking the time to advise on this!. Earth's weather is ever changing and you never know what's around the corner. I can't think of many other places I'd rather be next week than bobbing around down there, catching a few fun waves, wetting the line sipping on cold beers with a sound bunch of lads. I'll let you know how we go mate
Don what are you seeing swell / wind Pasta Pt area for next 10 days?
Around 3-4ft today til Friday (4ft more so on Friday), then dropping off over the weekend to around 2-3ft, down to 2ft/2ft+ come Sunday and into most of next week, maybe up a notch around 2-3ft come Thursday and staying around this for Friday (21st) and Sat (22nd), dropping back slowly to 2ft/2ft+ come Sunday (23rd). There's also the chance of some building S'ly groundswell around Sunday 23rd, but the North Male atolls don't like this swell direction much, but the swell period looks good (if it comes to fruition - 16 sec) so it may just wrap into the south swell magnets of the North Male atolls. Could have inconsistent and powerful 3-4ft sets at the south swell magnets late on Sunday 23rd and into Monday 24th if this swell comes to fruition.
Heading to Lohis on the 11th of May until the 22nd just wondering if anyone can provide a bit of a forecast for this period And what I should expect? Thanks
Pumping on the 11th ...Solid swell
Donweather is always spot on with his forecast as he was with the Dates above i asked about..
Hey Donweather, when you do get chance could you provide a little forecast for this period (11 May until 22). Searched a lot of places but haven't really found one. Cheers
Nath - Windy tv..click on waves on right hand side index....and drool over the purple mass
click on screen colours in that area for a approx wave size and period.
First time i have ever seen a chart showing a large swell push up right into Bay of Bengal
I haven't looked at the charts. Just the models. That swell you're referring to on the 11th Udo is VERY S'ly in direction which doesn't favour the north Male atolls at all. But in saying that it's a very good period so the south swell magnets of the north male atolls might just see something from this swell.
I'll take a look in more detail later tonight and do up a forecast for ya Nath.
Looks like around 2-3ft+ SE swell for the first day of your trip (Thurs 11th). There’s a chance the south swell magnets of the North Male Atolls may see some inconsistent 3-4ft sets, but this won’t be until very late in the day, just before sundown me thinks. Friday 12th see a bit more push in the SE swell, so I’d be thinking 3-4ft SE swell and again the possibility of some similar sized but way more powerful 3-4ft+ very inconsistent sets at the south swell magnets. You’ll notice a considerable difference in the power of these waves inconsistent sets at the south swell magnets as opposed to the similar sized SE swell.
Sat looks similar to Friday with 3-4ft SE swell. The S’ly groundswell will be all but gone come Saturday morning. Sunday sees this SE swell slowly wane down to the 2-3ft+ class by Sunday afternoon, remaining around this for Monday. Probably a slight downgrade to 2-3ft on Tuesday, dropping down again slightly for Wednesday 17th so say around 2ft/2ft+. May see the start of a new S/SE groundswell very late on Wednesday, but again not much more than 2-3ft by close of play at south swell magnets.
Thursday sees a combination of 2ft/2ft+ SE swell and 3ft/3ft+ S/SE groundswell but this latter swell will only really be seen at the south swell magnets. Friday’s similar, although the S/SE groundswell should muscle up to 3-4ft by close of play on Friday, again really only at the south swell magnets. Saturday (20th) and Sunday (21st) should see 3-4ft+ S/SE groundswell on offer at the south swell magnets, smaller away from these. Monday will see this S/SE groundswell start to wane, so I’d be thinking 3ft/3ft+ waning throughout the day. Again this size really only at the south swell magnets. I’d recommend heading to the south swell magnets Sat/Mon as there’s very little other swell in the water around these times.
Tuesday 23rd is currently showing an even better S/SE groundswell. I know you’re not there on this day, but the models may bring this swell forward and hence you may see it late on Monday 22nd. Current model forecast is for 4-5ft on the Tuesday.
Cheers Donweather. I'll be in the North Male region 13th - 18th and that sounds fun!
Cheers Donweather sounds great!
Pretty spot on with the size don. Wasn't prepared for the 4 days of the moderate to strong side/onshore though blowing out every spot in north male though :( Saturday was a cracker so all not lost
It's still relatively early season so the winds are always a risk.
Glad you got some fun ones but.
Hi Don, or any Maldives Gurus,
Just a question, as I'm heading over in early June, Does that semi-stationary trade flow in the central Indian let's say if it's typically 20-25 kts provide enough for 3-4ft of SE surf (N Male)? And will a decent SSW ground swell get in to the Northern breaks? I guess we're looking for a good size storm pushing North towards Madagascar and racking up against a High to the East. Or a rare cut off Low further East. Appreciate any info, so i can choose a the right boards for my trip. Cheers.
The North Male atolls love a large semi stationary high pressure system parked off the WA coast. That's what pushes in a good spread of SE swell to all of the breaks up there.
The south swell magnets will pull in some refracted S'ly groundswell but it has to be long period and really only shows its head at the south swell magnets. SW swells very rarely get into the North male atolls.
S'ly ground swells from the western flank of lows passing across the SE Indian Ocean will get into the North Male atolls.
But typically the North Male atolls pump from those semi stationary high pressure systems planted off WA.
Thanks Don, priceless! Bit early, but I,m seeing a nice storm setting up a decent southerly fetch over the last few days of May, hopefully that comes to pass. And fingers crossed for a 1040 high parking in the right zone,(fantasy).but i guess the reality is that even 4-6ft surf is pretty unlikely for 10 day trip.
I wouldn't be focusing too much on that S'ly groundswell. There looks to be no shortage of SE swell for the first week of June at least. Not sure it will get to 6ft, you may just miss the peak if you're not getting there til after 30 May but based on current forecasts I think you should have some 3-5ft SE for the first week ofJune.
Nice, We arrive 1st June. Yeah so used to thinking of the Indian ocean as a SW swell zone, for Indo,.I've never even paid any attention to the SE trade swell. It seems to be a vast fetch,but generally not particularly strong ?
Fetch length and duration are equally as important as wind strength. You can get some decent size waves from a semi-stationary high pressure system if the fetch length is long enough.
I hope so Don, otherwise she's not looking to flash for that first week of June....
Just looked at latest forecast and I'd still be thinking 3-5ft from Monday 29th May into the end of that week. 5ft on 29th May, waning to 3ft by the end of that week (Sunday 4th June).
Could have some strong trade winds for most of that week also, so that will make it a little uncomfortable at some of the breaks!!!
Hi Don, any fresh insights for Nth Maldives early June? In the absence of the swellnet charts, i,ve been looking at windy tv which is showing a desperate circulation , maybe just enough to reinvigorate some SE trade action in a small window for early june, then maybe just enough to pad out small small swells for the rest of the week. Maybe some long period encouragement to help it along?
What's ya dates SM
2nd-10 June. Ta
3-4ft+ SE swell for your first few days, with the 4ft+ at the more exposed south swell magnets and more so on the Friday 2nd.
Then looks around to be a waning 2-3ft+ SE swell from Sunday 4th through to Wed 7th, with the SE swell bottoming out on the morning of Wed 7th at around 2ft/2ft+. Then a slightly better new SE groundswell arriving throughout the afternoon of Wed 7th, building back up to the 2-3ft+ range from the SE by close of play. Then 3-4ft+ SE swell again for the last 3 days of your trip, into Sat 10th.
There's a couple of S/SW groundswells also worth mentioning. One in particular around the late afternoon of Mon 5th and into Tues 6th. It's a very good period so I'm thinking this will wrap into the south swell magnets of the Nth Male Atolls. Could see some distinctively powerful (way more so than the underlying SE swell) sets up into the 4-5ft+ range possibly very late on Mon 5th, but more likely into Tues 6th. This then wanes back down into the 3-4ft range on Wed 7th. Again I'm thinking most of this swell will only really be showing at the south swell magnets.
Another smaller S/SW groundswell arriving late on Thurs 8th, again more so into the morning of Friday 9th, with sets around 3-4ft at the south swell magnets. Again more powerful than the underlying SE swell. And it looks to hang around this size throughout the end of your stay, into Sat 10th....again only at the south swell magnets.
Appreciated Don, thanks for taking the time to look. Sure is an interesting start to the month for the Indian Ocean!
Hi Don thanks for the notes. I didn't realise that the Maldives preferred swell direction was so different to Indo, although it does make sense after looking at their position on a globe. I'm landing in Male the 11th ( 7 night stay ) right after a nice run of swell by the sounds of things. Should I expect it to be 2 - 3 for the first few days then building later in the week? I can see a large purple blob under South Africa around the 15th of June would I be correct in assuming this should pulse into the swell magnets of the northern atolls later in the week?
Travis. I'm specifically referring to the North Male atolls. Have a look on GMs and you'll see why these east facing breaks don't like SW groundswells.
As for your dates, the 11th is still a long way in terms of forecasting time so ask me again in about 5-7 days time and we'll have a better idea then. It's highly unsual for a storm south of South Africa to generate any meaningful swell for the North Male Atolls. You typically want a swell at least east of 190 deg and a long period to wrap into the south swell magnet breaks of the North Male atolls.
I see what you mean regarding those north atolls. Much more east facing than I had thought. I will check back in with you next week.
As for that storm down near SA what I was trying to say is due to its size as it tracks eastward if it retains its intensity could it be large enough to create said groundswell for the North Male Atolls.?
Anyway I'll tune into the WAMs over the next week and see how it pans out.
Hi Don whats in your Crystal Ball for the Maldives next week? The wams looks like it has some activity.