The week / month ahead in weather .!

southey's picture
southey started the topic in Saturday, 3 Jan 2015 at 8:17pm

It looks like the weather models are on Crack again ........
They really have no idea what to do with this monsoon trough progression .
One run of Access G they had a Cat 2/3 cold cored cyclone at the head of the bight .
And GFS is doing its typical , the world is gonna end predictions ....
Kind of hard to take these runs serious when another shows a borderline Cat 2 warm core cyclone intact Sth of Uluru but still >1000 kms from the ocean . I know the pacific Infeeds almost the entire ocean on both sides of the equator. But that amount of captured upper moisture would be almost unheard of .

southey's picture
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southey commented Sunday, 4 Jan 2015 at 5:34pm

" SA's Reserve Capacity "

wellymon's picture
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wellymon commented Monday, 5 Jan 2015 at 12:23am

Exciting stuff down your way Southey...!haha
I never really take them serious any which way, that far in advance, but exciting none the less.
I suppose its beats thee old "one synoptic chart" from the daily paper.
IMO its always interesting when there is so much moisture over inland OZ, something is on the brew;)

http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast1.php?type=rain&region=swp&tim=168

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 commented Monday, 5 Jan 2015 at 10:25am

It's always the way when the MT first dips into Aus lats: models start spacking out. GFS seems to be on crack.
Takes a while before we see which models are resolving the synoptic sich best.

thats why it's so fun to watch.

southey's picture
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southey commented Monday, 5 Jan 2015 at 10:56am

I don't usually get excited about Models ......
But I like the idea of a full on retrograde on Sunday ...

" SA's Reserve Capacity "

wellymon's picture
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wellymon commented Monday, 5 Jan 2015 at 4:20pm

Interesting WAMS on SN between the 12th and 15th...?

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

donweather's picture
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donweather commented Monday, 5 Jan 2015 at 6:44pm

wellymon wrote: Interesting WAMS on SN between the 12th and 15th...?

I wouldn't be relying on anything more than 3-5 days tops from any of the weather models at present.
southey's picture
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southey commented Monday, 5 Jan 2015 at 7:46pm

If I was living on the Sth coast of NSW , I would be excited . No matter what happens they won't lose .

" SA's Reserve Capacity "

wellymon's picture
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wellymon commented Monday, 5 Jan 2015 at 7:49pm

Yeah I think I said that above DW...?
Quote "I never really take them serious any which way, that far in advance, but exciting none the less."

DW...! Why say "from any of the weather models at present."

As Southey has instigated here on this forum, could you reiterate as such please..? Cheers ;)

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

donweather's picture
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donweather commented Monday, 5 Jan 2015 at 10:42pm

Whenever there's heightened tropical activity including the potential for a TC the model reliability appears to go out the window IMO.

mitchvg's picture
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mitchvg commented Monday, 5 Jan 2015 at 11:47pm

Hold it, I'm totally confused. South Coast, E Vic, W SA, WA. MT... I actually do have the freedom to cruise around atm. Coral/W pac is not really amping up proper is it (according to forecast notes) Or are you referring to activity in Tasman, mr milky moustache?

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southey commented Wednesday, 15 Jul 2015 at 11:19pm

Gee timing of Three fetches linking up would have someone with time and money on their side to head to Fiji for Tues .

" SA's Reserve Capacity "

mitchvg's picture
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mitchvg commented Thursday, 16 Jul 2015 at 12:18am

I can see 2 but 3?

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog commented Thursday, 24 Dec 2015 at 8:29pm

Gulf..... Tick that one off....
Aaaaaaand...... The Solomons...... Pen in hand....
Anyone game to say what happens next? Wait for the next gfs and accessG if you like....

Sheepdog

Blowin's picture
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Blowin commented Thursday, 24 Dec 2015 at 9:04pm

mitchvg wrote: I can see 2 but 3?

Get thee to Indo pronto.

Best waves in the world.

wellymon's picture
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wellymon commented Thursday, 24 Dec 2015 at 10:14pm

Sheepdog wrote: Gulf..... Tick that one off....
Aaaaaaand...... The Solomons...... Pen in hand....
Anyone game to say what happens next? Wait for the next gfs and accessG if you like....

All hyped up again Sheepio, not you but the weather.
I think this will all slip away into oblivion again.
Access G does show some potential tho for a long ranger, maybe;)

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

donweather's picture
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donweather commented Friday, 25 Dec 2015 at 10:03am

Solomons low looks to get whisked away to the SE before she can generate any swell, particularly with no cradling high. Cya in another 30-40 days time!!!

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 commented Friday, 25 Dec 2015 at 10:47am

Slow moving thunderstorm embedded in the coastal trough here.
4 inches of rain here this morning!

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 commented Friday, 25 Dec 2015 at 11:00am

Make that 5 and a half inches.

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog commented Friday, 25 Dec 2015 at 1:26pm

Wellymon.. Don.... Yeah I can see what the charts reckon... So you're in agreement with the computer models then....

But low has now formed over the solomons (actually been there for a couple of days), and is linked via monsoon to massive area of low pressure over Inland Australia..... Indian Ocean high and Bight cold front now a major player in all of this....

Sheepdog

donweather's picture
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donweather commented Friday, 25 Dec 2015 at 5:11pm

Bight cold front appears to suck Gulf TC down with it.

mitchvg's picture
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mitchvg commented Friday, 25 Dec 2015 at 6:22pm

Hey Dawg, merry Xmas. How does it happen to be pretty much dry in Cairns today? How do you read the satellite image with the MSLP chart, when the isobars have such vast distances between, and vary direction from one to the next...?

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog commented Friday, 25 Dec 2015 at 7:33pm

Hey mvg... A big seasons greetings to you.... Well I generally use a hybrid map, like metvuw or wundermap... Why do you ask?

Sheepdog

mitchvg's picture
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mitchvg commented Saturday, 26 Dec 2015 at 9:16am

Cheers mate yeah, scoring past few days, in the twilight hours? It's hard to what's happening at the local scale on those maps but for example, there can be pockets food winds when there's a trough crossing the coast in SEQ. You can't see that on the mslp map cos it's so small scale in and time...

Looks to me from the wind obs that we're just sth of the monsoon trough (N'ly winds). Still under the STR and therefore less rain?

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Sheepdog commented Saturday, 26 Dec 2015 at 12:39pm

MVG, oh ok.. I know where you're coming from now.... Yeah local topography also has to be taken into account re local winds too.... The southern end of the goldy is a prime example... Mountain ranges, headlands... re' monsoon... Where are you now?

ps - gulf low could be a slow burner...... Also bight cold front I mentioned could throw a curve ball as that cold air hits around 160e 30s, and interacts with tropical stuff currently near the solomons (which is expected to move rapidly east and drop south south west in a clockwise arc around the outer side of Fiji... Keep your eye on that one........ But the gulf low is a strange creature, like most gulf lows.. Could be a drought breaker.... Could be an east coast summer bomb... But that innocuous land low has spiced things up... Called watching that region 4 weeks ago.... Got a message from Huey ;)

Sheepdog

mitchvg's picture
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mitchvg commented Saturday, 26 Dec 2015 at 1:17pm

re monsoon, Yorkeys Wedge is my loke... hence you'll find me on two wheels most days now. You getting out, or is the sun too gnarly in summer?

There's even occasional patches of blue sky here... but you look at the MSLP map and we're smack bang under the monsoon trough with rain shaded over us for 100s of kms around. At first I thought we might've been getting dryish weather because tradewinds sometimes tweak SE to SW, just before the enter the convergence zone. But then all the obs are saying east or north...

Yeah I know I happened upon that one 4 weeks ago... and I mentioned it elsewhere on Tuesday the 22nd. Need a link? :P

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog commented Saturday, 26 Dec 2015 at 1:50pm

As that nt low gets closer to gulf waters, expect more monsoonal activity over your way.... And yeah you'll get patches of blues sky.... But then you'll get biblical downpour for 1/2 an hour that if it happened in Adelaide, the place would be underwater.... Such is the monsoon... In fact, often a the north side of a monsoon trough, it can be quite sunny.... Experienced that in innisfail one year... The trough moved down to Cardwell, wher it was freakn bucketing down, but north of the trough was hot and sunny...

Getting a few peelers pre 10am - sun at my back... But also working during the day now..... Totally different life.... The bakery days are over.... Back in the ad/marketing game and hating it lol..

Sheepdog

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Sheepdog commented Sunday, 27 Dec 2015 at 4:24pm

A good weather/swell guru is not just a parrot for the latest gfs.... It takes years of experience and "feel".... Some people can have degree's in meteorology, but are still glued to the latest run, flip flopping with every new scenario the computer spits out, one dimensional focus..... That's not good forecasting... That's just first to see the latest gfs run and post it online...
A month ago, I saw some stuff... patterns...."Things" happening ........ Movement.... And non movement... Things that if you had've been watching for 40 years, you would've seen it before.... You wouldn't need to be glued to gfs or accessg..... I wont tell you how/why... I cant.... I wont... But there are indicators you wont find on a gfs run, or a website.... "Old school" secrets, more guarded than a S.A reef break...... Only a lifetime of immersion in weather, and not just swell forecasts, will enable one to become a decent ocean caller..... It's more than lines on a map... People can sometimes confuse themselves with too much of the modern fandango.... It's like a university guy with all the latest cameras and ground equipment and infra red sensors goes bush to look for a rare bird.... Days go by..... An indigenous brother walks up and says, "hey what are you looking for".. The uni guy explains.... The true local says "open your eyes, there's one in that tree right in front of you"... But the uni guy still cant see it coz he isnt looking at the tree properly... He had to learn the old way of looking
Weeks ago it was all there, the orchestra gathering.... Now I couldn't say at that stage what song was going to be played.... But over the last week the orchestra started warming up.... Little hints.... Gulf lows... Monsoon... Tropics... Coral sea... Then WA highs, bight lows.... cold air... warm air.. Moist air..... The band is ready......

Sheepdog

Cylinders85's picture
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Cylinders85 commented Sunday, 27 Dec 2015 at 5:18pm

That oldschool knowledge is priceless no new technology can take its place. And
At some stage it is time to pass that knowledge on. Hahaha

Blowin's picture
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Blowin commented Sunday, 27 Dec 2015 at 5:35pm

Yeah Sheepdog.

So much hot air but zero humility.

Oops, I meant humidity.

Or did I ?

old-dog's picture
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old-dog commented Monday, 28 Dec 2015 at 9:42am

If there was an award for the most delusional self gratifying load of crap then old sheepflog would win hands down or should I say hand on. Does anyone actually care what this old kook thinks? bad case of small dick syndrome. Merry Xmas to all.

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog commented Monday, 28 Dec 2015 at 10:57am

Cyl85... I'll give you one little juicy titbit ... Blowin and old dog, I mean Statler and Waldorf, look away now... It's too late for you guys... Muppets of the year...

Cyl........Go to Bom map archives and create a mslp loop for nov . Check 2014, and now 2015..

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/archive/index.shtml

Don't look at the ocean.... Look at the continent.... Remember what "mean" pressure is.... Remember the one of the sure signs every year that the wet season is on its way.... clue - Kimberley heat....

Give me your thoughts when you have a chance...

Sheepdog

wellymon's picture
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wellymon commented Monday, 28 Dec 2015 at 12:40pm

Sheepdog wrote: A good weather/swell guru is not just a CLOWN for the latest GREAT FREAKING SHOW gfs.... It takes years of experience and "feel".... Some people can have degree's in meteorology, but are still glued to the latest run, flip flopping with every new scenario the computer spits out, one dimensional focus..... That's not good forecasting... That's just first to see the latest gfs run and post it online...
A month ago, I saw some stuff... patterns...."Things" happening ........ Movement.... And non movement... Things that if you had've been watching for 40 years, you would've seen it before.... You wouldn't need to be glued to gfs or accessg..... I wont tell you how/why... I cant.... I wont... But there are indicators you wont find on a gfs run, or a website.... "Old school" secrets, more guarded than a S.A reef break...... Only a lifetime of immersion in weather, and not just swell forecasts, will enable one to become a decent ocean caller..... It's more than lines on a map... People can sometimes confuse themselves with too much of the modern fandango....

It's like a university guy with all the latest cameras and ground equipment and infra red sensors goes bush to look for a .....YOWIE, YOWIE I YELLED AND RAN AND RAN AND RAN.

Weeks ago it was all there, the orchestra gathering.... Now I couldn't say at that stage what song was going to be played.... But over the last week the orchestra started warming up.... Little hints.... Gulf lows... Monsoon... Tropics... Coral sea... Then WA highs, bight lows.... cold air... warm air.. Moist air..... The band is ready......

Come on 'buddy', it sounds like your past skin cancer on the LIP, has turned to something else, "AIDS"
"And I'm Da Shit" and you don't have to use your lips to say it, your fingers do the talking know;)

One thing we all know around these parts is that its 'Surf Season' Sheepio, remember that for 40 years eh!
Awhile back you talked about the flute in the orchestra going DING!, yeah we know that will happen as well but when? Monsoonal activity up north ring any DINGS...
You are hypocritical I must say, as numerous times you have posted gfs maps from Metvwu on here, so your saying you never look at them! Especially where you live now!

As for Blowin and Oldog, well their posts were in the pudding.

Merry new year Sheepio;) I hope you have many a sheep to bark at whilst ride their backs in this prosperous new year:)

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog commented Monday, 28 Dec 2015 at 2:55pm

Wellymon... I don't act like an echo chamber for gfs on every run.... That's what I'm saying...
Where did I say I don't look at gfs? I didn't... I post gfs maps in reference to calls made and stuck by.......... So there's no hypocrisy...But there is a lot pent up passive aggressive bullshit...

Cheers, welly... Stay popular and safe :)

Sheepdog

wellymon's picture
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wellymon commented Monday, 28 Dec 2015 at 5:57pm

Don't get me wrong here Sheepio, I like to read your two bobs worth.
If there are five, two bobs worth, that makes ten, so others reading can come to their own conclusion...Yeah;)

Calling yourself " A good weather/swell guru " is IMO, blowin your own flute in the orchestra and that's why you get comments following?
I find it funny as Sheepio and I hope my literature doesn't come across as " pent up passive aggressive bullshit..." cause that's far from who I am;)
Cheers.

PS have you looked at the latest gfs and Ec models.

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog commented Monday, 28 Dec 2015 at 6:31pm

Wellymon, the only "comments following" are from you, blowin, and old dog.... Cyl is actually interested... But you're more into baiting.....
I'd put money some folk out there have actually checked the archives for 2014/2015... They're probably the ones that haven't commented.... They probably spotted what we used to look for on the trawlers back in the 1980s........Have you looked?

Tell ya what welly, if ya cant handle a bit of tongue in cheek, a bit of fun, that's cool.... The guru bit was actually part self promotion, but a veiled jibe at yourself, and a couple of others, who just spit out what the latest gfs says....
I aint gonna change welly... You know, i showed some concern over Braudulios cryptic goodbye post... Even got lampooned for that.... Who knows, he might be gong through a real hard time, he could be swingn' in the wind, or it all could be BS.......... But that's cool... People can "get off" however they want..... Doesn't phase me....
Anyhooo, the best time for surf in qld is late Jan, feb, march april..... Not Early summer..... Some Dec/jans can be atrocious..... That's why the stubbies/kirra classic/ goldy pro is held in march....Just a jeads up on that... lol........ If ya ever interested in why I called gulf/solomons 4 weeks out, check the archives and give me a yell.... Cheers....

Sheepdog

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Sheepdog commented Monday, 28 Dec 2015 at 6:57pm

Oh and wellymon, I forgot.. Yes of course I've looked at the gfs.. I'm just not changing my call every 6 hours.... BTW, I disagree with some re' the gulf low not having any influence.... It definitely is.... There's a trough heading ese from the gulf low all the way to west coast NZ..... It's partly associated with the bight low I highlighted days ago, and an inland Qld trough , which is quite common this time of year.... The potential set up everyone is frothing about would not be happening with out the gulf low... The ese trough was semi evident on xmas, but was not linked from the gulf low to the bight low.... The remnants of the bight low, now west of NZ, is clearly linked via trough to the gulf...

1st map is xmas... Note inland qld trough;

2nd map is now... Note trough from gulf to NZ.... Cool air on nsw side of trough... Warm tropical air New cal side...

Sheepdog

wellymon's picture
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wellymon commented Monday, 28 Dec 2015 at 8:11pm

Good work Sheepio.
I like it.

The thing that cracks me up now days with all this technology, gfs/Ec maps, computer models, sat photos,men going to Mars etc etc. Is that no-one really knows until it turns up on ya door step, just like ordering something online and waiting for the whatever to arrive. It doesn't in the end, it got lost or the ship sunk, then your parcel floated around the ocean for awhile and some dolphin is wearing it on their head.

The thing I'm saying, you can look for birds in the tree and never see them, you can look at clouds in the sky and see them, but you can't look for swell past the horizon, as you never really know when it will arrive until it's on your door step and you're amongst it.....:)

Oh and Sheepio Hiccup, Buuuuurp,hiccup Buurruuuuurrrp

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

Cylinders85's picture
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Cylinders85 commented Monday, 28 Dec 2015 at 8:14pm

Sheepdog.Thanks for that information appreciate it great knowledge. Allways keen to learn more. Whats your thoughts at this stage about this east swell? looking really good I havent seen anything like this for a while.

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog commented Monday, 28 Dec 2015 at 9:15pm

Welly, cyl85.... Nah it looks like shit... I wouldn't bother travelling to Qld or NNSW if I was interstate..... ;)

Now, back to why I went out on a limb re' the gulf.... You'll not a few weeks ago, I did not say "cyclone".... I said tropical low..... However I am quite surprised that it has sat over land for so long... Anyhooooooooo, here's my 2 bobs....

NW WA heat lows..... In november, and often earlier in spring, a definite pre cursor or "sign" that the wet season is not too far away, is the formation of a "heat low" over NW WA..... It's like summer is beating winter away with a big stick.....Some years, the WA heat low is quite intense..... The stronger the NW WA heat low/s, the less chance of a gulf low...... The more chance of a timor sea/ WA low/cyclone..... It's just my opinion, based on what old northerners used to say many moons ago..
Well this year was different..... The WA spring heat lows were piss weak..... BUT....... There was a larger area of low pressure across the whole northern continent, and in fact the NT in Nov' had an almost permanent area of low pressure, with several lows forming right where this current low is, almost teasing one to call....

In the period, punch in 1/nov 2015 to 30/ nov 2015......
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/archive/index.shtml

So the area had been primed for a month..... Minimal wind ( often a dry easterly feeding into a strong NW WA heat low, but not this november)......
That's it...... Thanks for reading...... See ya round.....

Sheepdog

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog commented Friday, 1 Jan 2016 at 10:45am

The next week will be very interesting weather watching re' inland low.... A lot of the remnants look to be heading towards the east coast..... A real dogs breakfast..... Could be interesting for NSW coast and east coast tassie, as a high feeds in moisture.... Discussed possible ecl a while back re' this inland low........ Harder to call than a melbourne cup at this stage...... But one thing is for sure..... A vast area of unsettled low pressure across most of the continent for the next week, with many variables... Expect GFS and accessg to lose the plot.... If I had to make a call, I'd err on the side of some form of low off nsw, due to the amount of moisture feeding in from warmer regions and combining with low remnants....

Sheepdog

tonybarber's picture
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tonybarber commented Friday, 1 Jan 2016 at 11:12am

Ben / Craig, do any of the models indicate the possibility of a east coast low / cyclone from the lows we have in the Qld - and they are moving east. At least would be nice.

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donweather commented Friday, 1 Jan 2016 at 4:37pm

tonybarber wrote: Ben / Craig, do any of the models indicate the possibility of a east coast low / cyclone from the lows we have in the Qld - and they are moving east. At least would be nice.

Knock ya self out big fella.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=wzcountry&lc=aus&mt=gfs

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=wzcountry&lc=aus&mt=accessg

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/medium/mean-sea-level-pressure-...

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tonybarber commented Friday, 1 Jan 2016 at 4:57pm

Thanks don ... Looks like Wednesday is the go. Looks good for north nsw.

Sheepdog's picture
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Sheepdog commented Friday, 1 Jan 2016 at 5:19pm

I wouldn't be busting a nut over that cyclone just yet... It'll be good, but not all time..

Sheepdog

Cylinders85's picture
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Cylinders85 commented Friday, 1 Jan 2016 at 6:06pm

Sheepdog .whats your thoughts on this beast? Proble bit early to be calling anything.

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Sheepdog commented Friday, 1 Jan 2016 at 7:17pm

Cyl85....Probably tone down the "beast" call lol.....It's movement looks prime, but no high cradling it when in optimum position..... No decent high till the 6th.. But by then it would've weakened, or so the charts reckon.... Probably be at it's strongest overnight and into tomorrow... Cat2, maybe cat 3...... But at that stage it'll still be out around the 173w 18s region or thereabouts.... By the time it gets to primo position, core winds will probably be int the 30 to 40k vicinity....

Nice waves... But I wouldn't get the "cyclone swell" froth on......

Sheepdog

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Sheepdog commented Friday, 1 Jan 2016 at 7:20pm

I'm wet season watching atm anyways cyl...... Sorta hoping some of that tropical action was gonna make its way down here to sa/vic... But it doesn't look good re that... Be good to put that fire out down lorne way..

Sheepdog

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Sheepdog commented Friday, 1 Jan 2016 at 7:36pm

BTW, did anyone see that freak low spinning clockwise in the northern hemi last week?? Bizarre shit..

Hey, it's on FB, so it must be true lol

https://www.facebook.com/iCyclone/photos/a.403096644596.183425.525532045...

Sheepdog

donweather's picture
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donweather commented Friday, 1 Jan 2016 at 8:36pm

Sheepdog wrote: BTW, did anyone see that freak low spinning clockwise in the northern hemi last week?? Bizarre shit..

Hey, it's on FB, so it must be true lol

https://www.facebook.com/iCyclone/photos/a.403096644596.183425.525532045...

Well frck me drunk!!!

Never thought I'd see that!!!

World is gonna end!! ;)

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Sheepdog commented Friday, 1 Jan 2016 at 9:23pm

Yep..... A coriolis calamity lol

Sheepdog