Swell early in the new year
Good spotting Bastardos,
At this stage its looking OK, but the only thing it doesn't have going for it is a strong ridge of high pressure to its south to cradle it.
The ridge is over New Zealand to its south-east making it slip and 'fall' through the Tasman Sea which isn't the best scenario for any major swell production.
Yes we will get swell. How much, we'll have to wait and see what the models do over the weekend updates.
Looks to me that Sydney and parts south will get the best of it now, although the wind will be onshore for pretty much all of it. North may get better winds but current obervations seem to suggest less swell for them.
And I'll be down south.
Excellent, as Mr Burns would say.
It is good to finally see something on the eastern seaboard but unfortunately for us up here in SE Qld, it looks like we've got S'ly winds to boot which will limit our surfing options to the protected points. And with a swell direction from the SE and the period in the 8-10 sec class, there will be some serious dilution of swell at these protected points.
Not to mention the ridiculous holiday crowds as well!!! :(
Oh, and with the GFS model progging some back to back tropical developments up north around the same time, me thinks the models have still someway to go before they converge on the actual evolution of this system.
Notwithstanding the above.....ummmmm 00z GFS run!!!!! :o
OO run looks fan-bloody-tastic.
At this stage, east coast getting good swell, particularly Sydney and south coast, with lighter and possibly northerly winds, followed by what looks like a possible cyclone positioned just perfectly for qld, north coast NSW, nicely positioned far enough off the coast, sliding down to join with the earlier weak low in the Tasman to produce days of east swell for NSW, possibly with favourable winds.
If Carroll was here he would be telling us to shut up big time. Nyah, nyah carroll, I'm talking about it.
Looks brilliant for a week or so of reasonable to good size swell for me, and at least a few days for everyone.
Couldn't work out as perfectly as that, or COULD IT??????????????
Mmmmwwaaaaahhhhhhaaaaaaaaa!
So next we will get Craig telling us to put a sock in it, and not to get our hopes up too high, having been bitten by that last south low.
How's the knee Craig? It must be pretty crap to be producing this.
Did I say nyah nyah?? :-)
One can only hope the 00z GFS run comes off, but given that EC isn't even entertaining the idea, I'd be thinking GFS is having a brain fart at present.
GFS is the odd one out at the moment, and it's the only one showing any real potential.
I stick with my comments and reasoning above.
And B&K, Op went well and the knee is slowly freeing up. Been on a fixed bike for the last week or so and getting faster and faster. Still there's some swelling and I don't know when I'll be back in the water. Hopefully by mid-late Feb :)
Get well Craig.
So I'm looking at swell from now till mid-Feb, followed by an extended flat spell!
Thanks for the info gentlemen, couldn't be bothered getting my data from two different sources when the first one I look at is so good. Still hopeful however. :-)
I'm just gonne ignore the latest GFS 00z update :o
Was just lookin at it myself then Craig, and thinkin, oh dear, just another brain fart from GFS.
So guys. What does it mean for us in Sydney or the South Coast?
Well quite surprisingly most models have now jumped on board with GFS at least with respect to the Tasman Low. Gfs still progging our first Coral Sea TC later this week so let's see if the other models come on board with this puppy also.
Looks like this first system with be somewhat of a 'Tasman primer', with the following synoptic developments looking much more prosperous for the East Coast.
Early-mid next week looks quite fantastic at this stage, actually.
Which model you running with for early-mid next week Ben? They're all over the place at the moment, with respect to any follow up system?
Pretty keen on the trade flow progged by EC at the moment, Don. Whilst GFS's TC-cum-extratropical-low looks very dynamic (especially with its close proximity to the coast), it's a little more highly spec'd and can't be replied on at long range.
This is certainly the best synoptic set up I've seen in the Tasman Sea in a long time.. bring it on!
Thanks Ben. I'd actually prefer ACCESS G's setup as it would produce the goods for SE Qld WITHOUT the accompanying local onshore synoptic winds.....which EC is progging and won't be doing any locations up here any favours!!!
I'm still thinking there's still a fair amount of room to move in all models between now and then so let's see what Huey has to deliver!!!!
My eyes are currently focused on the action a little closer to home!!! :)
GFS has really dropped the ball with tropical developments this year.
So far BOM's ACCESS model has been the far superior model.
Yes Don, nice little surprise package there.
Yeah I agree Steve that GFS has dropped the ball with respect to tropical developments, but it's worth noting that it stuck to it's guns with respect to this low pressure system a little closer to home and now both the other models have only just come on board a day or so out from actuality. So I've got to give it to GFS at least this time (granted this system aint a tropical one).
And I'm hoping you're right with respect to ACCESS G coming to fruition later this week/early next week!!!
Well I do hope that this morning is a sign of things to come for 2011. Absolutely crackin up here this morning and the wave buoys continue to climb. Would easily be 4-5ft on the open beaches up here now.
Absolutely salivating over the long range EC model at the moment (7-9 days time). Once can only live in hope!!!;)
The models are all over the place at the moment with regard to how lows may or may not develop in the upper tasman over the coming week. All we can say is something will happen and we will get some swell - it will be better than the last 2 months of crap. It might even get epic here in Sydney. But as to how big, when and what wind its just too early to talk about anything from Friday onwards.
With these troughy conditions, I think just keep a close eye on it and jump when the winds are ok.
With these troughy conditions, I think just keep a close eye on it and jump when the winds are ok.
By: "barstardos1"
That's exactly what I did today and I was duely rewarded!!!! :)
Hilarious. Access and GFS have basically swapped scenarios.
GFS and EC both look pretty tasty.
Hope those lows keep forming in that Fraser to Lord Howe corridor.
Where;d you surf Don?
The models are all over the place at the moment with regard to how lows may or may not develop in the upper tasman over the coming week. All we can say is something will happen and we will get some swell
By: "barstardos1"
Ha ha...who'd be a forecaster, eh?
Hilarious. Access and GFS have basically swapped scenarios.
GFS and EC both look pretty tasty.
By: "freeride76"
Yeah I noticed this too Steve. Gotta love the backflipping by these models. Both GFS and EC are bringing local wind with them too, so I'm not liking that one bit. Keep these systems just offshore to enable lighter local inshore winds, otherwise it's just crap washing machine material.
Where'd you surf Don?
By: "freeride76"
I'd prefer to keep my locations close to my chest Steve. I'm sure you can understand that.
Yeah, cool.
SEQLD or NENSW would be all I wanted to know.
Seems the peak size was between Byron and the Border according to my intelligence.
Just looking to confirm that.
I would have to agree Steve looking at the positioning of the low/trough off the coast.
Steve, let's just say between where I surfed and then the subsequent footage and reports i received throughout the day, I think the peak size was actually in SE QLD (Gold Coast to be more specific), but that's just my opinion. I reckon there would have easily been 4ft+ sets at exposed open beaches yesterday mid morning, possible almost touching the 5ft mark at the swell magnets? And of course I can't speak for conditions south of Byron, but you'd know of what went down there.
Yeah. Possibly.
I got very reliable intelligence of 4-6ft barrels between Byron and the border.
(bigger than that D-Bah footage).
Was solid 3-4 where I surfed.
Steve, check ya PMs on realsurf.
Got some real 3' - 4' sets at my local swell magnet for the dawny today. Some wedgy runners pushing down the bank before tide started to get too full. Best waves i have had since P Pass in Nov (but it was nothing near as good).
Yeah I surfed a wedgy rip bowl sandbank very close to a packed surf spot.
No-one out.
Was a lot of work hunting the bank but some real throaty wedges.
Boy it was a rapid easing by the time of the afternoon run-in.
Good chance to scope the various banks under E swell conditions.
There are some good ones around.
any chance that the swell ,will,kick in earlier than sat night for the se qld region ,first week back at work for the new year and i'm keen to get amongst it . sunny coast region would be my first option.
Tip-top, at this stage I'd say highly unlikely, unless that E'ly dip on the northern flank of the Tasman high turns into a fully closed low during Friday, but at this stage, none of the models are progging such a scenario.
The ACCESS model is about your best bet for a rising swell later on Friday/into Saturday morning, but don't expect anything but onshore winds to accompany it (unless the closed low forms).
cheers don ,here's for hoping
Ummmmmm, long range EC!!!
Yeah. Possibly.
I got very reliable intelligence of 4-6ft barrels between Byron and the border.
(bigger than that D-Bah footage).
By: "freeride76"
Steve, there's some more images here and there's a solid set in that series of 3 that Simon's just posted, which looks to be taken closer to mid morning given the lighting. That last image of the set of 3 images certainly looks to be an easy 5ft IMO.
http://www.burleighcam.com.au/kegtalk/showthread.php?5081-zzzzz&p=111647...
Hey Steve, just read your forecast prepared today. Just wondering are you running with something other than the GFS model for late Sunday and into Monday, given your 3-4ft call for Monday morning?
If the current GFS forecast comes to fruition, I would have thought Monday is likely to be reasonably larger than that at open beaches (I'd be thinking something at least of the order of 5ft??).
Interested in your thoughts?
The initial retrograding ESE fetch weakens temporarily according to a line of best fit between ACCESS, GFS and EC through Sun before re-establishing by Tues as the new HP ridge comes to fruition.
With so much disparity between models a hefty error margin is expected.
Solid E swell is a given.
Ha, and just like that the 00z GFS run has downgraded Monday's forecast. You sure you boys at swellnet don't have access to the GFS computer codes!!!;)
Ummmm, am I the only one getting rather moist over the EC/GFS scenario? Yeah granted it's still a little while away but both models are now aligning quite well. Wax up those guns for early next week people!!!
Um, I think I may have to book a trip home for next weekend/early next week to see how this swell unfolds :O
You back in South Oz, Craig?
Yeah, till early Feb to recover from op.
Bugger dude!!!
Ummmm, excuse me, but has anyone checked out the 00z GFS run of late!!! Bugger me if that thing comes off it's watching from the shoreline material only let me tell you!!! Would be 8-10ft of E'ly groundswell from that puppy early next week!!!
Don't jinx it Don!
Sorry Stu, I'll try not too, but bugger me seeing those onion rings off the east coast get's this old duck rather excited!!!
Pretty fair model agreement for the broadscale movement SW of this tropical depression.
Latest SW Pacific Marine Bulletin confirms this.
Bugger sitting on the beach Don, I've got the 9'0" Brewer or 8'0" McCoy waxed and ready.
There's plenty of surfable options if the wind stays light.
Has anyone seen the latest run on the BOM 10 day models. Suggests a pretty nice scenario of low in the coral sea cradled against a big high - sending a spray of swell across the entire east coast for a week. It wont be big - but it will be rideable and consistent - something we havnt seen in a long time.
http://data.theweather.com.au/access/imageserver.jsp?image=grads/access-...
Have a look at the surface wind - looks great to me
http://data.theweather.com.au/access/imageserver.jsp?image=grads/access-...
The ECMWF broadly agrees with the scenario but has the low dipping toward NZ much faster
This is a major upgrade on anything we have seen in months. Looks like the Goldy and North coast will get the best of it, with the swell finally making it down to Sydney by late in the first week of 2011. Also suggests that a long tradewind fetch behind it may set up a swell train that could last for weeks