TC or not TC

donweather's picture
donweather started the topic in Wednesday, 24 Nov 2010 at 10:29am

Righto chaps.....please tell me the wet dream of the latest 00z GFS run isn't just that.....a wet dream!!!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 24 Nov 2010 at 10:34am

I did wet myself, especially when GFS also has it retrograding back to the west :o

But as the other model updates came to hand I was bought back to the real world.

We wait and see..

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Wednesday, 24 Nov 2010 at 9:19pm

It's looking like 'not TC' at the moment Don. 'Take arms against a sea of troubles'

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 24 Nov 2010 at 11:04pm

Actually, the less vertical development the better.
Then it might not get steered to the SE so quickly by the weakening sub-tropical ridge and uppers.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Thursday, 25 Nov 2010 at 3:00am

I hear ya Steve. Here's a question for ya though. If it goes extra-tropical as it tracks southwards, what will influence it's steering then?

Edit: Just did some reading and it appears that extra-tropical systems are influenced (steering) by similar upper systems.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Thursday, 25 Nov 2010 at 3:02am

Also, I guess the title of this thread didn't really align with my first question. I couldn't give 2 hoots if it's classified as a TC or not. I was just wanting it to do as the 00z GFS run was progging last night (similar to Steve's thinking) and get the fetch working on an active sea state by the system regressing westwards (or at least southwestwards).

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Sunday, 28 Nov 2010 at 2:36am

Let's hope the EC/GFS models come to fruition mid this week as it could deliver some very nice lines out of the east next weekend if it does!!!

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Sunday, 28 Nov 2010 at 9:07pm

Last night the models had the isobars in a beautiful procession, from Tues till Sat they were lined up perfectly. This morning they've broken down somewhat. Still showing the depression out near New Cal though, just not the flow of isobars back toward the coast.

Guess you'll still get swell Don, perhaps a foot or two smaller than forecast and a lot more inconsistent.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Monday, 29 Nov 2010 at 3:55am

Yeah GFs has toned it down somewhat today Stu, which is a real shame, but we should still see at least 3-4ft (inconsistent) from this puppy come Sunday now by the looks of it. Just have to avoid the E/NE winds now!!!