South swell and the Sunny Coast.

Verner, you're hitting up the correct locations along the Sunny Coast to capture the most of the south swells, such as DI and Sunshine. It's a tough one to call the amount of south swell that gets into the Sunny Coast. It's highly dependent on the swell period that enables the swell to refract around Cape Moreton and bend into the Sunny Coast. Of course this also means loss of energy in the swell as it does this, so you'll never get the size from south swells that locations south of Byron do. I'd be thinking the south swell magnets of the Sunny Coast will see some of this action this weekend and into early next week, when the swell seems to be that little bit more east of south. In the past I've found the Sunny Coast fairs much better on the backside of the forecast peak of these S'ly swells (when they tend to have that touch more east of south in the swell direction).

If ya can hang out til Summer and Autumn, then that's when the Sunny Coast should shine.....particularly in a La Nina.

depends how south the swell is and the interval, but doubt it will get over 2 foot, want too milk the size in south swells go south.simple...anyway, do we need sunny coast too become another goldy but with shitter waves? no; but it will..big mouthing waves and what not on the fucking internet isnt going to help the ridiculas increasing crowds though is it.Anyway i'll see you out sunday if you know your salt

Ahhh Man... I'm hearin ya!

We're all in denial on the Sunny Coast.

Bring on the Cylones!!!!!!!!!

As said above Verner; you're looking in the right places. If you're going to find any waves on the sunny coast at this time of year that's where they'll be.

The only other thing I could suggest is that when ever a south swell is forecast keep your expectations low, very low, very very low, actually, before you go to check the surf tell yourself it's going to be totally flat, that way you won’t be disappointed when you get to the beach and it is TOTALLY FLAT….. :(

Vern, the La Nina is just really getting wound up now.
We'd expect more action from the Coral Sea this summer/autumn and in fact it might be a whole lot more as this Nina is shaping up to be a monster.

There's been a lot of talk about La Nina this year and from what I understand (and I'm far from an expert on this) it's been a long time since we’ve had such a good build up to this type of event. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe the last time a La Nina event was this strong was in the mid 60’s. When there was something like 3 or 4 category 4 cyclones passing very close to the SE Qld coast in one season, followed by the wettest winter on record, then another big cyclone season the next summer.

If this year is shaping up to be anything like those passed seasons we could be in for a hell of a ride…. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.

FYI; The story I’ve heard from some old locals up in the hills is that most of Pacific Paradise (or the “Maroochy North Shore”) is at or below sea level. And in the last proper cyclone season we had (back in the day) on the Sunny Coast nearly all of this area was 2 – 3 meters under water, and this SWAMP is now full of Yuppies instead of Guppies….

Pete, I've heard similar stories...

Like how they used to chain all the caravans down...
We haven't such gnarly storms in a generation... we've forgotten!!!

Verner, my money for the Sunny Coast is still for on the back of this swell event, so I'd be thinking Monday/Tuesday and Wednesday should all deliver for the Sunny Coast. Irrespective of the S'ly groundswell, there'll also be some background long range (inconsistent) E'ly groundswell over these days listed above, probably in the 2-3ft range so that should keep the Sunny Coast non-south facing beach surfers happy.

Let's hope the local synoptic winds behave............

As for the strengthening La Nina, based on my limited understanding of the NOAA data (and forecasts), the CFS ensemble mean forecast of the Nino 3.4 SST anomalies is currently predicted to reach -2 by the end of this year. Historically, the years that we've previously seen a La Nina this strong are as follows

1956 - 6 TC's within the Coral Sea
1974 - 8 TC's within the Coral Sea
1976 - 7 TC's within the Coral Sea
1988 - 4 TC's within the Coral Sea

So based on historical data, if we see the La Nina strengthen as forecast, could certainly be a wild and woolly summer!!!

Thanks for the heads up Don, will be interesting to see how this cyclone season plays out.....

And also good to hear we're finally in for some waves in the coming days, cheers mate. :)