Great Surf Coast, excellent Saturday morning

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 14th February)

Best Days: Surf Coast Thursday, Friday morning, both coasts Saturday morning, Surf Coast Sunday morning, east of Melbourne next week


A good building W/SW swell through yesterday from 2-3ft on the Surf Coast through the morning to 3ft+ into the afternoon with favourable winds ahead of sea breezes. The Mornington Peninsula was also good with surf in the 3-5ft range, larger but bumpy into the afternoon.

This morning the swell was around a similar size across both regions, though a little less consistent and with strengthening offshore winds on the Surf Coast which have now gone strong W'ly, and early N'ly winds to the east.

This strong W-W/SW change will bring an increase in close-range W/SW swell this afternoon that should reach 4ft+ across the Surf Coast and 6ft+ to the east.

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

This week and weekend (Feb 15 – 18)

The front pushing through today is a touch stronger than forecast on Monday and as a result the increase in swell expected to build through this afternoon has been increases.

The Surf Coast should reach 4ft+ with stormy 6ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula though with strong W/SW winds.

This swell will settled back down through tomorrow, while a secondary front pushing in from the west this evening should produce a reinforcing W/SW swell for tomorrow afternoon.

The front will then produce persistent W/SW gales followed by a polar fetch of severe-gale to storm-force SW winds as a deep low forms south of Tasmania, helping keep wave heights up through Friday ahead of a strong S/SW groundswell pulse for Saturday morning.

Coming back to the expected size and the Surf Coast magnets should offer surf around 4ft tomorrow with 6ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula, similar Friday before easing just a touch later in the day.

Saturday's S/SW groundswell looks great with the Surf Coast due to pulse to 4-5ft+ owing to the S/SW direction with 6ft+ surf on the Mornington Peninsula.

Coming back to the local winds and the Surf Coast will be best over the coming period with the autumnesque frontal activity directing fresh W/NW-NW tending W/NW winds across the region tomorrow, with W/NW tending SW winds Friday.

Saturday looks excellent with light local offshore winds across both coasts early, tending NW through the morning ahead of a W/SW change through the afternoon.

This change will be shallow, with winds due to swing back to the W/NW Sunday morning though with a smaller easing swell from the 3ft range on the Surf Coast and 4ft to the east.

Moving into next week, our poor forecast of E'ly winds is still on the cards as a surface trough deepens and sits of the southern NSW coast most of the week.

This will favour selected locations east of Melbourne, and we've got a fun new S/SW swell due Monday, but we'll have a closer look at this on Friday.


Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 11:23am

Fuck west. More east.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 11:28am

If Gita tracks south as predicted is there acute angle of East swell that could navigate through to MP/West Coast?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 12:27pm

Nah not at all, not more so than a usual Tasman Low near New Zealand. Ex-STC Gita has no real east fetch in any case when drifting south through the Tasman Sea.

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 12:33pm

Craig, 'with W/NW tending SW winds Friday' are we likely to see morning W/NW's until late morning as per previous forecasts or is the SW going to be the predominate wind early?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 12:36pm

Probably a little earlier. It should hold out to about 9/10am.

Ant agonist's picture
Ant agonist's picture
Ant agonist commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 2:32pm

can you tell me what time the crowds will peak and provide photos of locals I cant snake,
I am also wondering if I will get wet if I duck dive even if I have no hair.
Will the wind be blowing through the air or will it be underwater?
Is their going to be any updates on the swell size as I want to know wether to take 5 boards or not.
Can you tuck me in and read me a story after my surf, I might be tired.

CMC's picture
CMC's picture
CMC commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 6:52pm

I like this bloke, most sensible response to the current froth fest going on!!!

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 7:02pm

Ant agonist. You forgot to ask where you can get the best coffee on the coast and hang out in a cafe for hours boring people stupid with exaggerated tales of your surfing ability.

Ant agonist's picture
Ant agonist's picture
Ant agonist commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 9:47pm

I heard that I can snake that dude Maurice anytime and he will make me a coffee at his factory while shaping me a free custom.
I will then proceed to rip the bells bowl a new sphincter valve while operating my drone filming myself for my socials. I will then proceed to paddle down to winki and take priority because they will all part like the red sea once they have seen my clup on the internet.
I will then paddle across the Tasman and catch that sicker than aids north swell that is going to smash a new hoop into the west coast.
Fucking ridgey didge

Wharfjunkie's picture
Wharfjunkie's picture
Wharfjunkie commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 8:46pm

Apparently Instagram is the problem. Guess you blokes make no money off that hey.

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey commented Wednesday, 14 Feb 2018 at 9:17pm

I wouldn't be certain of that Wharfy , Craig is quite prolific . Mainly fashion shots though . Which is cool for the Insta Surf Police , not having to fire a warning shot . ;-)

" SA's Reserve Capacity "

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G commented Thursday, 15 Feb 2018 at 8:28am

Gary was hoping to get amongst it this morning but instead had an emergency to attend to: it had been a full week without Gary updating his profile pictures on the ol’ social medias and he had to go book a photographer to capture some shots in the sunrise this morning.

When Gary glimpsed the morning report he was so sad that he went and comfort ate a huge açai bowl while softly weeping. It’s not always easy being G, you guys.

I got all my Gary's and me

Ant agonist's picture
Ant agonist's picture
Ant agonist commented Thursday, 15 Feb 2018 at 8:56am

Don't worry gaz
The report is going to get better
I've been busy in melbourne putting up flyers announcing saturday is going to pump and there is free coffee and kale smoothies everywhere in torquay on Sat.
I'm going to start a petition to remove salt from the sea. It's playing havoc on my g banger stitching.
I'm also chartering a bus for anyone that wants to come watch me surf .

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G commented Thursday, 15 Feb 2018 at 1:29pm

Gary is hearing you loud and clear, Ant.

The best thing about Gary catching facey's is that the watching pack get to see perfection in human form, but there are many drawbacks.

For one, it's hard to keep Gary's hair coiffed between waves, and when you're surfing right out to sea the punters on the beach can't really appreciate the intricacies of Gary's substantial rig, let alone his manscaping.

Gary may even bypass the morning session on Saturday to assume a striking pose on the front of one of these kale smoothie stands and give the punters what they want. Thanks for the heads-up, Ant.

I got all my Gary's and me

Ant agonist's picture
Ant agonist's picture
Ant agonist commented Thursday, 15 Feb 2018 at 2:22pm

I think the Gary needs a big screen set up on the shore with multiple drones flying and documenting the specimen as it glides across his faceys. I think it would be appropriate if I do a burg on the Melbourne Cricket Gary
And take one of their big screens down the surf coast on Sat.
If you want to say G day in the water to me I will be the one on a surfboard
Will be pretty hard to miss as I hear bells and winki are pretty much secret spots.
I hope no one is coming up the stairs as I'm coming down cuz they won't be able to fit past my ego.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Thursday, 15 Feb 2018 at 4:35pm

Ant Agonistic, I hope you're also planning a trip to Keramas. Last time I was there it was full of chumps with brand new quivers who were incapable of taking the drop or looking left. They all had a pretty good "pool posing" game at the resort there. Too much work in the weights room, not enough work in the water. You'd fit right in.

Ant agonist's picture
Ant agonist's picture
Ant agonist commented Thursday, 15 Feb 2018 at 5:17pm

No need to look left when ya surfing straighthanders or going over the falls.
You would know that Maurice bloke being from victoria, do you know how he's going with that free custom I've promised myself.
If I can pry myself from my 5kg cock strengthening dumbbell I will be in the line up flexing hard come satdey.

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