Great Surf Coast, excellent Saturday morning
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 14th February)
Best Days: Surf Coast Thursday, Friday morning, both coasts Saturday morning, Surf Coast Sunday morning, east of Melbourne next week
A good building W/SW swell through yesterday from 2-3ft on the Surf Coast through the morning to 3ft+ into the afternoon with favourable winds ahead of sea breezes. The Mornington Peninsula was also good with surf in the 3-5ft range, larger but bumpy into the afternoon.
This morning the swell was around a similar size across both regions, though a little less consistent and with strengthening offshore winds on the Surf Coast which have now gone strong W'ly, and early N'ly winds to the east.
This strong W-W/SW change will bring an increase in close-range W/SW swell this afternoon that should reach 4ft+ across the Surf Coast and 6ft+ to the east.
This week and weekend (Feb 15 – 18)
The front pushing through today is a touch stronger than forecast on Monday and as a result the increase in swell expected to build through this afternoon has been increases.
The Surf Coast should reach 4ft+ with stormy 6ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula though with strong W/SW winds.
This swell will settled back down through tomorrow, while a secondary front pushing in from the west this evening should produce a reinforcing W/SW swell for tomorrow afternoon.
The front will then produce persistent W/SW gales followed by a polar fetch of severe-gale to storm-force SW winds as a deep low forms south of Tasmania, helping keep wave heights up through Friday ahead of a strong S/SW groundswell pulse for Saturday morning.
Coming back to the expected size and the Surf Coast magnets should offer surf around 4ft tomorrow with 6ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula, similar Friday before easing just a touch later in the day.
Saturday's S/SW groundswell looks great with the Surf Coast due to pulse to 4-5ft+ owing to the S/SW direction with 6ft+ surf on the Mornington Peninsula.
Coming back to the local winds and the Surf Coast will be best over the coming period with the autumnesque frontal activity directing fresh W/NW-NW tending W/NW winds across the region tomorrow, with W/NW tending SW winds Friday.
Saturday looks excellent with light local offshore winds across both coasts early, tending NW through the morning ahead of a W/SW change through the afternoon.
This change will be shallow, with winds due to swing back to the W/NW Sunday morning though with a smaller easing swell from the 3ft range on the Surf Coast and 4ft to the east.
Moving into next week, our poor forecast of E'ly winds is still on the cards as a surface trough deepens and sits of the southern NSW coast most of the week.
This will favour selected locations east of Melbourne, and we've got a fun new S/SW swell due Monday, but we'll have a closer look at this on Friday.