Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 7th November)

Best Days: Wednesday morning, Thursday morning

Recap

A tiny pulse of W/SW swell was seen yesterday to 1-1.5ft, but unfortunately it faded through today with tiny 0.5ft leftovers reported this morning.

This weekend onwards (Nov 8 onwards)

The weekend is looking more dire than it was on Wednesday, with a small pulse of W/SW swell due Sunday unfortunately being downgraded significantly with the south-east tracking low that was forecast to produce it reaching nowhere near the strength it was supposed to.

Instead we're now only looking at a tiny pulse to 1ft or so, not worth really checking.

Our much more stronger pulse of W/SW tending SW swell through later Monday and Tuesday is still on track, with a bonus pulse of S/SE swell due Thursday.

This will be related to a strong mid-latitude low pushing in from the west aiming a fetch of W/SW gales through our swell window before pushing up and over us through Monday evening, directing a better fetch of SW gales towards the South Arm.

A solid pulse of W/SW swell should build initially Monday, reaching 3ft across Clifton later in the day (tiny early) before the SW swell fills in and peaks Tuesday and peaks to 3-4ft.

Winds will unfortunately be poor for this swell with an early W/NW'ly Monday due to swing W/SW through the morning, and then Tuesday will see SW tending S/SW winds leaving no decent options for a wave. Wednesday should be cleaner with an easing 2-3ft of swell under morning N/NW winds.

Of greater importance is a fetch of polar S'ly gales developing at the base of the frontal system pushing through early next week to the south-east of the state, generating a moderate sized S/SE groundswell for Thursday.

This should come in at a good 4ft or so across exposed breaks dawn Thursday before easing through the day, under NW tending SW winds.

Longer term we may see some solid SW swell for next weekend, but we'll go over this again Monday. Have a great weekend!