Victorian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday January 1st)

Best Days: Tomorrow morning keen surfers to the east, Wednesday morning, Sunday morning to the east, Monday morning to the east, Tuesday morning to the east

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing SW swell tomorrow
• Small-moderate sized mid-period S/SW swell for tomorrow PM, easing Wed
• Light E/SE-SE winds tomorrow AM ahead of fresh sea breezes
• Variable offshore winds Wed AM ahead of sea breezes
• Strong S/SW winds Thu, mod-fresh E/SE-SE Fri AM
• Small background levels of mid-period S/SW swell later week and into Saturday, easing Sunday, with further pulses next week
• NE tending SE winds Sun and Mon
• E/NE tending SE winds Tue

Recap

Happy New Year!

Saturday morning was the best morning of surf for a while on the Surf Coast with a building swell in the 3ft+ range and lumpy though semi-clean conditions under a W/NW breeze. The wind didn’t last long, with conditions deteriorating from mid-late morning.

Yesterday was larger with the peak in swell along with average though workable S/SE winds.

This morning the swell has backed off a little quicker than expected along with a shift in winds to the E/NE, opening up fun options to the east. 

This week and weekend (Jan 2 - 7)

The week ahead looks tricky wind wise with troughy weather in the region bringing flukey periods of more variable winds over the coming mornings.

Firstly looking at the swells, and the weekend’s energy will continue to fade tomorrow, but a reinforcing pulse of mid-period energy should fill in during the afternoon, generated by an off-axis fetch of NW tending W/NW winds swinging in from the Southern Ocean on the weekend.

It should boost wave heights back to the 3ft range on the Surf Coast (smaller morning) and 4ft to occasionally 5ft to the east, easing back Wednesday from 2-3ft and 4ft respectively.

Winds won’t be as favourable as today to the east tomorrow, light E/SE-SE through the morning ahead of sea breezes, with Wednesday seeing more variable breezes, locally offshore at times. This looks the best morning to surf this week with smaller background energy due into Thursday/Friday.

Winds will go strong from the S/SW on Thursday in the wake of a trough, shifting moderate to fresh from the E/SE-SE on Friday morning.

Looking at the weekend ahead and we’ll see a mix of localised SE windswell and background SW energy with Sunday offering the cleanest conditions. An inland trough will squeeze a high moving in from the west, bringing strong E/SE-SE winds on Saturday and generally poor conditions, improving Sunday as winds shift NE along with a peaky mix of swells to 2ft+ on the Surf Coast and 3ft to possibly 4ft to the east.

Longer term, the Southern Ocean storm track will remain active but weak close to the polar shelf, generating small, persistent levels of mid-period S/SW swell in the 2ft to possibly 3ft range on the Surf Coast, 3ft to occasionally 4ft to the east and we look to see a run of favourable morning winds for beaches to the east. More on this Wednesday.