The leading edge of a new long period groundswell reached Cape Sorell around lunchtime today - a useful, if somewhat delayed proxy for the inactive Cape du Couedic buoy - and we’re expecting size to build towards a peak early Tuesday.
The Indian Ocean is in an active phase with a storm track concentrated on disturbances SW of Heard Island and tracking below the state maintaining intensity. Locally, a ridge under the state is being enhanced by a trough moving down the coast from the Gascoyne, eventually forming a low off the SW corner before it moves inland again.
This energy will be generated by a slow moving polar low well to the SW of Western Australia at the moment, in an ideally angled - if somewhat distant - region of our swell window.
High pressure drifts more NE into the Tasman with a weak trade flow sitting in the Central Coral Sea through the mid to end of this week.
Action from the south is on the radar for next week, after an extended period of tropical action dies down. First cab off the rank is a frontal system and trough which looks to push across Tas later Sun into the Tasman o/night into Mon.
The whole synoptic pattern on the East Coast in the wake of Alfred is a moist onshore flow which looks to persist through into the mid week. A weak front races across the lower Tasman before reinforcing high pressure slips into the Tasman to reset the flow, albeit at a weaker level. Not a great deal of swell generated by any feature this week.
The whole synoptic pattern on the East Coast in the wake of Alfred is a moist onshore flow which looks to persist through into the mid week. A weak front races across the lower Tasman before reinforcing high pressure slips into the Tasman to reset the flow, albeit at a weaker level. Not a great deal of swell generated by any feature this week.
Anywhere north of the cyclone, especially north of Fraser (K’gari) will see vastly reduced surf.
We should see a round of NE windswell Wed as high pressure in the Tasman and an approaching cut-off low briefly tighten pressure gradients with NE winds increasing and swell building during the day.
The coming outlook is mostly small to tiny with more swell potential from later next week.
