Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by James Casey (issued Wednesday 17th February)

Best Days: Saturday with lighter winds and east swell, and then Monday which will be solid but windy so aim for the points and southern corners.

Outlook:

• Easterly trade swell set up delivering consistent 3-4ft E swell for the next few days 
• Low drifting down from QLD coast delivering large E/NE swell with an 8ft peak, bigger further south
• After low moves off coast on Monday/Tuesday S wind swell will fill in but looking modest compared to the week we’ve got ahead of us

Recap: Swell built across the region today (Wednesday) as a mid-period pulse of SE swell filled in at a chunky 3-4ft across the region, but E/SE winds have made it pretty ordinary with bumpy conditions across the board.

Into the Weekend

It’s building steadily towards the weekend with this E/SE swell set to remain fairly consistent around that 4ft mark across the region.

Winds will continue to be the issue for wave quality with E/SE winds on Thursday, becoming a bit lighter but still out of the E/SE on Friday. This means it’ll be hard to find any decent conditions across the coast with protected southern corners the pick. Basically it’s looking like a chunky, bumpy end to the week.

Synoptically, we have a trough off northern NSW interacting with a strong ridge north-west of New Zealand aiming persistent gales towards our coast. These have been set up like this for a couple days but the ridge has extended to the north, meaning a shift towards a more easterly, rather than south-easterly, direction. It's not unlike a trade swell set up, not perfectly aimed at our coast but we are getting the edge of it. South of Sydney will see less of this swell.

The Weekend and Next Week

The same east swell will continue on Saturday with the chance of some lighter offshore NW winds in the morning. I wouldn’t be expecting clean conditions but it’ll be more lumpy than choppy so pencil that in for the weekend warriors amongst us. Winds will swing back around to the SE and then NE late so keep an eye on northern corners later in the day for some potentially cleaner conditions. 

Meanwhile, and this is where things get very interesting, a low pressure system will form off the QLD coast and begin moving south and intensifying. This low will generate sustained gales and aim a decent E/NE swell towards the region with a solid 8ft spike, larger south of Sydney owing to an extended fetch. Flexibility is key as is always the case with low pressure systems near the coast, but at this stage it's looking solid with the short-lived peak to occur early on Monday.

Winds with this system will be S so southern corners will be the pick, although they'll still be solid with the swell charging straight in - there’s few places to hide with this E/NE direction. It’ll be for the experienced chargers amongst us. Could even be some novelty action in harbours and bays open to a bit of E and E/NE swell but you will need some protection from the winds. 

Tuesday will see the swell begin to subside as the low moves east and no longer aims its energy at our coastline. Strong S to SE winds will continue along the coast though with a S wind swell to fill in along the coast as the low moves away. This S to SE wind swell looks to be solid 4-5ft, but there’ll be spots to hide away from the biggest waves with southern corners smoother and more manageable.