Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 10th October)

Best Days: Saturday: peaky NE windswell with an early window of good winds. Monday: strong short range NE swell with good winds expected to develop during the morning. Wed/Thurs: on target for some solid south swell with W'ly winds developing as a Tasman Low tracks south

Recap: Small leftover S’ly swell on Thursday with early light winds tending fresh NE in the afternoon. A tiny combination of swells this morning with a slowly building NE windswell this afternoon, although it’s lagging behind expectations right now as winds haven’t strengthened quite as much as anticipated on Wednesday.

This weekend (Oct 11-12)

A few minor changes to the weekend forecast, but the broad consensus remains the same: Saturday morning should be the pick of the weekend. We’re expecting a strengthening NE airstream in our near swell window overnight and this should kick up a peaky short range NE swell early Saturday in the 2-3ft range.

The overnight NE winds will create some surface lumpiness about the open beaches, and unfortunately we’re now looking at just a short window of N/NW winds around dawn to clean conditions up - probably through until about mid-morning before the northerlies redevelop and then swing moderate to fresh NE into the afternoon.

As such, aim for an early session because conditions are likely to deteriorate from mid-late morning onwards. We’ll also se a slight drop in size throughout the day.

Sunday is looking at a smaller, residual NE swell in the morning with light to moderate NE winds freshening throughout the day. There’s less chance of an early NW breeze between Cronulla and Newcastle however the South Coast will probably see variable conditions until about lunchtime (with similarly small NE swells) due to a weaker pressure gradient in the southern regions. So there should be some fun beachies down south if you’re in that next of the woods.

Sunday afternoon’s freshening NE winds will probably build short range NE swells about the coast late in the day but I’m not confident on how much size we’ll see. Either way, if we do see any notable increase it’ll probably be quite bumpy on top. 

Next week (Oct 13-17 onwards)

Monday is looking pretty good at this stage. Strengthening NE winds overnight on Sunday will generate a punchy short range NE swell that should provide peaky waves between 3ft and 5ft at exposed NE facing locations. Much smaller surf is expect at south facing beaches. 

Even better, conditions are looking good as a southerly change pushes along the southern NSW coast - it’s due into the South Coast around lunchtime or early afternoon, and into Sydney late afternoon - so ahead of it we should see winds swinging NW through the morning (possibly still N’ly at dawn in some regions) before trending variable in the hours leading up to the change. 

From Tuesday onwards, things get really interesting (and complicated!). Although the models are in general agreement that a low will form off the southern NSW coast in the lee of the change, they’ve been moving the precise location of the low - and its strength and position - quite a bit.

However they seem to be honing in on a decent sized Tasman Low - possibly an East Coast Low - developing on Monday, driving S/SE gales into most regions through Tuesday. Such a scenario would obviously generate a large short range S/SE swell however we’re also expecting to see plenty of residual NE swell - albeit fading in size - originating the indeed fetch from the northern Tasman Sea.

So, southern corners that will be offering protection from these southerly gales should see some small clean waves.

As for size out of the south - due to the dynamic nature of this system, and the fact that it’s still four days away, I’m not very confident on the likely wave heights - but 6-8ft at south facing beaches on Tuesday seems a reasonable possibility for now.

Beyond Tuesday, we’ve got some great prospects in store for the middle to latter part of the week. The computer models are suggesting that the low will track slowly southwards, while continuing to generate solid southerly swells for the southern NSW coast on Wednesday and Thursday. However, if the low moves south as is currently projected, we should see a westerly airstream develop across its northern flank - which may extend down across many parts of the southern NSW coast, providing clean conditions.

Let’s take a closer look at this on Monday with the availability of the latest weather model data.

Long term (Oct 18 onwards)

The long term period looks like we’ll see some small trade swell across the region, as our far E/NE swell window falls under the influence of a broad, slow moving high pressure system. It’s unlikely to be an epic swell generating system but should nevertheless supply small surfable options through the long term period, in addition to anything else that may form in the Tasman Sea. More on this in Monday’s notes.