Southern Tasmanian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday January 1st)

Best Days: Tomorrow morning, Wednesday morning, Saturday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Reinforcing mid-period SW swell tomorrow with light SE winds (possibly variable), freshening then tending E/NE
• Easing swell Wed with N tending S/SE winds
• New mid-period SW swell Thu/Fri, easing Sat
• Strong S/SW tending S winds Thu, moderate S/SW winds Fri, freshening
• N tending S/SE winds Sun

Recap

Happy New Year!

A strong frontal progression brought a solid increase in swell on Saturday but with onshore winds, cleaner yesterday and still solid. Today the swell is back to 2ft but with a return to onshore winds in the wake of a trough.

This week and weekend (Jan 1 - 7)

The coming week will consist of plenty of swell, but local winds will make things tricky across the state later week.

Our reinforcing SW swell from a fetch of strong NW tending W/NW winds moving in along the polar shelf is on track for tomorrow. It should provide 2ft+ sets and winds still look a touch dicey, light SE tomorrow morning before increasing and tending E/NE later.

Easing 1-2ft sets are due Wednesday with a N/NW offshore ahead of S/SE sea breezes

Moving into Thursday/Friday some additional swell is due, from an elongated fetch of strong W/NW winds to our south-west tomorrow.

Unfortunately a trough will bring strong S/SW winds on Thursday creating poor conditions, with lingering S/SW winds on Friday.

Winds are likely to swing back offshore on Saturday morning from the N’th and with smaller 1-2ft waves across Clifton for the keen.

Longer term, there’s plenty of background SW swell due into next week but a deepening surface trough into a low to our east looks to bring strengthening S/SE winds on Monday/Tuesday and some additional windswell.

More on this Wednesday.