Southern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday July 7th)

Best Days: Today, tomorrow, early Sunday, Monday morning, Tuesday afternoon, Wednesday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fading S/SE swell tomorrow with strong N/NE tending N/NW winds
• Small + sized localised W/SW swell developing Sun with variable tending gusty W/SW winds
• Easing swell Mon with NW tending N/NW winds
• Small building W swell Tue, easing Wed with NW-W/NW winds

Recap

Small but clean 1-2ft sets yesterday with background levels of S/SE groundswell, similar today with nice peelers for bigger boards. More exposed spots across the South Arm have performed a little better.

Inconsistent, glassy 2ft sets today

This weekend and next week (Jul 8 - 14)

The current, inconsistent S/SE swell energy is due to ease into the weekend so expect fading 1-1.5ft sets tomorrow with the possible rare bigger one. Winds will also strengthen but improve, N/NE early and then N/NW into the afternoon with an approaching frontal system.

We we're expecting an uptick in localised mid-period W/SW swell on Sunday from the backside of this frontal progression but it's now looking dicier.

All the activity today and tomorrow will be too far north of our swell window and in the Bight. While during Sunday morning, it should drop south temporarily, bringing strong to gale-force W/SW winds immediately south of us.

This looks to limit the size but we should see building 2ft+ waves on Sunday but with dicey winds. Variable in the morning and then strengthening from the W/SW through the day.

Monday should be cleaner with NW tending N/NW winds along with small, persistent 2ft sets thanks to a slim, trailing front. Worth making the most of.

Unfortunately the rest of the period is dicey with strong mid-latitude fronts due to push under Western Australia, too far north of our swell window, dipping east-southeast on approach to us. This will see the later stages of the fronts generating closer-range burst of winds and swells, but all west in nature.

Nothing really over 2ft is due with each pulse, but there's the chance for some better swell next weekend from a better positioned Southern Ocean low. More on this Monday.