Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 12th December)

Best Days: Thursday morning and later Sunday exposed breaks, dawn Monday

Recap

Nothing of note yesterday or today.

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

This weekend and next week (Dec 13 - 16)

All hopes rest on tomorrow's flukey pulse of inconsistent W/SW swell.

There's been no changed to the expected size or timing of this swell with it due to arrive overnight and peak tomorrow morning to 1-1.5ft, if not for the rare 2ft'er, easing into the afternoon.

Winds are dicey tomorrow and gusty from the N/NE, favouring spots away from Clifton, tending more NE into the afternoon.

Friday is then due to be tiny with poor E/NE winds.

The next increase in swell will arrive in the form of an inconsistent long-period W/SW groundswell, building later Sunday and peaking Monday morning.

This is being generated by a strong polar low between Heard Island and WA, with the low due to weaken over the coming days while moving slowly east.

While in our far swell window, severe-gale to storm-force W/NW winds have been registered by satellite, and this should produce a good though inconsistent W/SW groundswell to 2ft late Sunday and Monday morning. Winds look less than ideal and gusty from the NE Sunday afternoon, with early NW offshores Monday ahead of a strong S/SW change.

This change will be linked to a stalling mid-latitude low over Victoria and NSW drifting south-east, bringing strong S/SW winds Monday and a stormy increase in poor quality windswell. This windswell event looks short-lived, but more on this Friday.