High pressure is now close to New Zealand, with an advancing trough and cold front bringing a fresh S’ly change, expected to generate a strong SE surge up the sub-tropical coast as a new high moves into the Bight and strengthens. Once the high moves into the Tasman over the weekend it’ll set up a blocking pattern but we’re expecting a few small S pulses leading up to that although winds look fickle. E'ly swell from persistent tradewind fetches should continue as a fun background source of swell.

We’ve got two new swells for the weekend, in addition to the existing, easing swell from Friday.

In short, it's looking to be a small, windy week across the South Arm.

We’ve got another slow moving pattern on our hands to start the week with a high pressure belt at sub-tropical latitudes directing a W’ly to NW’ly flow across the state and a very zonal (W-E) storm track tracking through the far southern Tasman Sea.