Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 7th July)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Possible small NE windswell Sat with gale force NW winds
• Small S’ly swell Sun, easing Mon
• More S’ly swell likely Tues/Wed- very minor though 
• Fresh W’ly to NW’ly winds most of next week

Recap

Small S’ly groundswell to 1-2ft yesterday has tended to stronger S/SE groundswell today with sets to 2-3ft at S exposed breaks, mostly clean under W/NW-NW winds. 

This weekend and next week (Jul 8 - 14)

We’re still expecting gale force NW winds to develop Sat, with a chance for N’ly windswell wrap into the NE of the Island. Keep expectations low but we may see some 2-3ft surf if you can find somewhere sheltered from the wind. 

Winds tend W’ly Sun in the wake of the front and parent low passing out of Bass Strait and to the south of the Island. Tiny/flat surf is expected with a small amount of S swell wrapping in during the a’noon to 1-2ft at S facing beaches. 

Into next week and  fronts passing into the Tasman are now modelled to be much more zonal (W-E), with weaker, truncated fetches S and E of Tasmania. As a result we’re looking at a smaller payload of S swell next week. A fair bit smaller unfortunately. 

The W’ly wind belt will be strafing the Island with fresh W to NW winds all week as fronts pass over the state. 

Most of the week will be tiny flat with small S swell Mon in the 1-2ft range or less, easing back to tiny Tues.

A next front and parent low Tues/Wed looks stronger but again winds are still zonal and the forward speed of the system means most of the swell generated goes straight up the Tasman Sea pipe towards Fiji. We should see some small S swell to max 2ft Wed, easing Thurs.

Surf then looks to ease into later next week, with a possibility of some minor S/SE groundswell Fri as the front moves towards New Zealand.

Longer term and massive low system approaching from below the continent now looks to stall in Victorian longitudes and then weaken as it approaches the Tasman. We may see some refracted long period S’ly groundswell from the stalled system early in the week 16/9, otherwise it’s more small S swell into the medium/long term.

Check back Mon for the latest and until then, have a great weekend!