Pipe Masters Forecast And Whatnot

Yes it does start tomorrow, no it isn't a CT

Craig's picture
By Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Photo: Heff/WSL

Pipe Masters Forecast And Whatnot

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Swellnet Dispatch

The waiting period for the 2022 Pipe Masters begins December 8th local time. Yeah, that's tomorrow, Friday Oz time.

Before we get into the forecast, the contest first deserves an explanation as a lot of people are confused about its scheduling. Don't feel bad if this includes you as a Google search for 'Pipe Masters' returns with a date saying the contest starts on January 29th, 2023. Even calls it the 'Billabong Pipe Masters'.

So, to be clear, there are two contests: the Vans Pipe Masters, which begins tomorrow and is not affiliated with the Woz, and the Billabong Pro Pipeline, which begins late next January and is the first contest of the CT season.

The reason there are two contests stems from the fact that Vans owns the Pipe Masters intellectual property - i.e the name - as they have done since 1998. They also own the Triple Crown IP.

In 2021, the Woz overhauled the CT schedule, removing the Pipe Masters from its traditional December timetable, where it was the last contest on tour, to late January, where it became the first contest on tour. The change wasn't appreciated by many fans who voiced an opinion that Pipe deserves season-ending drama. Vans, reportedly, weren't au fait with the change either, as, for one, it scuppers their Triple Crown plans.

Admittedly, the Triple Crown has been in disarray for a few years, the contests split between CT and QS tours, then COVID came and the Triple Crown went digital. However, Vans harboured hopes to once again unite the three contests, only to find a late January waiting period yet one more difficulty to overcome.

From an independent expression session, to the IPS, then the ASP, after that the WSL, and now back to a standalone comp, for a 'traditional' comp the Pipe Masters has undergone considerable changes

Allegedly, there were other hurdles such as Vans making demands on the amount of local surfers and the number of wildcards, which would upset the consistency the Woz has achieved throughout the rest of the CT season. Each camp held firm with their demands and here we have the outcome: two contests, one called the Pipe Masters and run by Vans in the manner they wish, the other isn't the Pipe Masters but was up until two years ago - it's now called the Billabong Pro Pipeline.

Make sense..?

Despite the split, the Vans Pipe Masters was sanctioned by the Woz, meaning CT surfers were given the all clear to surf in it. However, a raft of CT surfers, including Gabs, Italo, KS, JJF, Steph, and Filipe have all fobbed off their invites. The number of surfers turning down the opportunity to surf uncrowded Pipe would appear to indicate internal pressure. No proof, but loads of circumstantial evidence.

Then again, they may have all got an early heads up on the forecast.

Unfortunately, it looks like the Haleiwa Challenger contest used up all the contest luck. The succesive NW groundswells that hit Haleiwa - while simultaneously pressing the perfection button at Pipe - aren't expected to be repeated through the Pipe Masters waiting period.

The current storm track to the north-west is misaligned, with lows spawning off Japan being quickly swept away to the north-east, away from Hawaii.

This will result in small to tiny surf through most of the waiting period, with a possible swell producer showing for later in the window.

Coming off the back of a moderate sized N/NW swell today, tomorrow will be lucky to be 2-3ft. A small lift in mid-period NW swell is due on Friday but only to 3ft to possibly 4ft before fading Saturday.

The surf will then be small to tiny up until later Tuesday when the next small pulse of mid-period NW swell is due. Surf to 4ft is expected at this stage along with strong trade-winds, easing Wednesday from a similar size with lighter winds.

Into the end of the waiting period, the leading global forecasting models diverge regarding the deepening of a significant swell generating system, so there is hope for more contestable surf into the final days. This will be monitored over the coming week.

Unfortunately, Pipe is not gonna look like this, at least not for the first week of the waiting period (Wiki Commons)

Last of all, the format for the new and supposedly improved Pipe Masters. We couldn't be arsed typing it out so the following has been swiped wholesale from the STAB website:

Heats:
For the men, a complete round consists of ten 4-man heats. For the women, each round will consist of five 4-woman heats. All heats will be thirty minutes, and there is a possibility the men and women could run overlapping heats if conditions allow.

Leaderboard:
The surfers are ultimately looking for their 3 best waves, which can come from any/all rounds. Then, the top 4 ranked surfers after 3 rounds advance into the Final — the duration of which will be determined on the day. The winner of the Final will be determined by each surfer’s best two waves in the heat.

Priority:
There will be no priority, though, should a surfer interfere with or drop in on another surfer, the interfering surfer will lose half of their top wave score. The penalty sticks with a surfer throughout the event, even if they get their best wave before or after the interference is called. Where a surfer incurs two interference penalties, their top two wave scores will be halved and they must immediately leave the water.

If that surfer makes the final, the interference call will not affect the final (unless they get an interference in the final.)

Good sportsmanship is a fundamental expectation of this event.

Judging:
Surfers are encouraged to utilize the whole wave to its fullest potential, including tube-riding and progressive maneuvers above the lip line and on the wave.

Consistently demonstrating high levels of commitment and riding/performing maneuvers on the heaviest and most critical sections will be highly rewarded. Also heavily considered will, interestingly, be style — combining major maneuvers with a seamless flow, while maximizing speed and power.

“Creative Self-Expression” will also be rewarded, which considers whether or not the surfer consistently demonstrates a unique individual approach to riding and executing maneuvers. 

Finally, wave selection and progressive maneuvers will —of course — be rewarded.

Comments

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Thursday, 8 Dec 2022 at 3:49pm

Internal pressure from the ELO himself?

Bustard's picture
Bustard's picture
Bustard Friday, 9 Dec 2022 at 6:08am

the possibility of some internal pressure from ELO has Gary G boarding the next plane to the Aloha State

Standingleft's picture
Standingleft's picture
Standingleft Thursday, 8 Dec 2022 at 4:04pm

" we couldn't be arsed typing it "
truth in journalism alive and well at swellnet love it.
fickle december was one of the reasons the woz rocked us with the move to January ?
small pipe is still good pipe

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf Thursday, 8 Dec 2022 at 5:13pm

Not when your as good as these people are they live for the place to be big check out the recent Volcom vid on Moana Jones. By the way anybody know how a cheap last 2 weeks, throw away, chinese made, shoe company and a bog standard T shirt manufacturer got so big in the surf sphere? There are many multiples of both out there got me stuffed how they go the bullshit to flow (not big here mind you).

Ronson's picture
Ronson's picture
Ronson Thursday, 8 Dec 2022 at 5:17pm

they're cracking photos^^^^

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay Thursday, 8 Dec 2022 at 5:42pm

When did the lip become the lip line, and why?

Looking forward this comp, even with smaller waves.

billie's picture
billie's picture
billie Thursday, 8 Dec 2022 at 6:23pm

I hate the WSL's change to the Pipe comp being the first comp of the season. Nothing has ever made less sense than this change. Surely, if it is a action packed extreme sports ending season finale suitable for dramatising into realty TV the Pipe comp is a history steeped legend of the surf culture suitable for dramatising?!?!?! If any change is required at all, perhaps lengthen the waiting period and minimum wave height requirements?

Absolute fucken joke.

wax-on-danielson's picture
wax-on-danielson's picture
wax-on-danielson Friday, 9 Dec 2022 at 7:06am

No way trestles is sick, especially all the big barrels. And the way the new finals days format puts everything in favour of the number 1 ranked surfer is super unpredictable and exciting, you never know who will win.

The only thing better last year was the waves in g-land comp.

wavie's picture
wavie's picture
wavie Friday, 9 Dec 2022 at 9:00am

Im not to mad about it, generally the surf is better in jan for pipe is it not? and resulted in one of the best pipe comps ever

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 9 Dec 2022 at 9:02am

Usually better sand and also more reliable swell wise.

carpetman's picture
carpetman's picture
carpetman Thursday, 8 Dec 2022 at 7:16pm

So the woz could, theoretically, run finals during this masters event instead of trestles?

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Thursday, 8 Dec 2022 at 8:14pm

Hopefully Noa Deane takes it out and repeats his little ode to the woz during the presso.

bbbird's picture
bbbird's picture
bbbird Thursday, 8 Dec 2022 at 8:42pm

Great summary of the event Craig.

Is the forecast for Pipeline an Hawaiian 3-4ft swell...? like NSW yesterday overhead .... 4-6ft sets.

Maybe better for some specialist acrobats.

Men’s Invitees:
Seth Moniz, Barron Mamiya, Griffin Colapinto, Mikey Wright, Yago Dora, Billy Kemper, Koa Smith, Mason Ho, Nathan Florence, Ivan Florence, Shayden Pacarro, Eli Hanneman, Makana Pang, Koa Rothman, Eli Olson, Jamie O’Brien, Matt Meola, Noah Beschen, Imaikalani deVualt, Jackson Bunch, Kala Grace, Kaulana Apo, Tosh Tudor, Eimeo Czermak, Kauli Vaast, Balaram Stack, Nic Von Rupp, Joao Chianca, Al Cleland Jr, Crosby Colapinto, Riaru Ito, Rio Wada, Eithan Osborne, Josh Moniz, Shane Sykes, Craig Anderson, Mikey February, Harry Bryant, Noa Deane, and Rasta Rob

Women’s Invitees:
Carissa Moore, Moana Jones-Wong, Coco Ho, Zoe McDougall, Betty Lou Sakura Johnson, Tatiana Weston-Webb, Pua DeSoto, Bethany Hamilton, Aelan Vaast, Caity Simmers, Sierra Kerr, Tyler Wright, Bella Nalu, Vahine Fierro, Maluhia Kinimaka, Luana Silva, Sophie Bell, and Laura Enever, Gabriela Bryan, Molly Picklum
Source: Stab 6/12/22

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 8 Dec 2022 at 9:05pm

3-4ft, is the same 3-4ft we use in Aus, which is the same as the Hawaiian scale. IE Head-high to just over-head.

wally's picture
wally's picture
wally Thursday, 8 Dec 2022 at 8:26pm

Could JJF and KS etc have pulled out because they had a look at the weather maps?

Alana_a's picture
Alana_a's picture
Alana_a Thursday, 8 Dec 2022 at 9:09pm

Put a line through seth, Barrón, Mickey, billy, koa, Mason, Nathan, Ivan, shaydon, koa , oli, Jamie, Jackson , Kala , jaulana, tosh, emio, Kauli, balaran, nick von, joao, Cleveland, j moniz.
I’m gunna have to pick Rasta rob for this one.

Alana_a's picture
Alana_a's picture
Alana_a Thursday, 8 Dec 2022 at 9:14pm

Forget about Moana, Bethany, Laura, vahine go name a few but I think the woman’s is side open

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 9 Dec 2022 at 6:11am

Day 1: Off.

evosurfer's picture
evosurfer's picture
evosurfer Friday, 9 Dec 2022 at 7:55am

Shit load of super under ground and non competition surfers such a shame the surf will be woeful.

Bustard's picture
Bustard's picture
Bustard Friday, 9 Dec 2022 at 9:35am

I was keen to see Sierra in some juice.

bbbird's picture
bbbird's picture
bbbird Friday, 9 Dec 2022 at 6:07pm

Some may enjoy living the dream; surfing pipeline and only 4 out

Rod Clarke's picture
Rod Clarke's picture
Rod Clarke Saturday, 10 Dec 2022 at 8:32am

In 2022 you either are the recipient of betting company dollars or you are looking for wealthy benefactors like those who have been supporting the breakaway golf tour.
At this stage surfing is falling in line with those female sports that don’t gather huge crowd or tv dollars to continue supporting their aspirations.
How long Elo will continue throwing money at the WSL is anybody’s guess, so I get the feeling that we better learn to like whatever formats are getting given to us.
It’s not like those who have made good dollars out of surfing are lining up to invest in the next generation.
Who knows, maybe this Van’s format will get huge tv interest and the next era of pro surfing will be born.

The beard's picture
The beard's picture
The beard Sunday, 11 Dec 2022 at 6:26am

What about a few more aussies in the men’s? Owen wright, Laurie towner?

scott.kempton's picture
scott.kempton's picture
scott.kempton Sunday, 11 Dec 2022 at 7:05am

On another note the woz going back to the pool and ditching gland is a bigger joke , can anyone watch more than 10 mins of the pool before turning it off .

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 11 Dec 2022 at 9:29am

Latest model data has a large swell filling in late Fri and peaking over the weekend... With 20-25kt SW winds. Argh!

More tubes please's picture
More tubes please's picture
More tubes please Sunday, 11 Dec 2022 at 9:45pm

Is this the worst pipe forecast of all time?

soggydog's picture
soggydog's picture
soggydog Sunday, 11 Dec 2022 at 9:48am

I disagree, dropping G land is a good move. Really really good. They should dismantle the tower and stick it in Kelly’s pool………like an obstacle..

Remigogo's picture
Remigogo's picture
Remigogo Sunday, 11 Dec 2022 at 9:39pm

Thanks mate. I lost a good mouthful of Corona.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 12 Dec 2022 at 12:06pm

Looking at the swell potential for the end of the week, and a strong low forming off the Aleutian Islands should deliver a large N/NW groundswell for late Friday, peaking Saturday to the 10ft range but with unfavourable N winds.

A trough spawning off the low bringing Saturday's swell will also bring some localised N/NE windswell through Saturday and Sunday, though the main issue are the local winds. A secondary low will bring poor, strengthening SW winds on Sunday which look to persist into the end of the waiting period. There is a large NW groundswell associated with this low with 10-12ft surf on the cards to end the period, but with Kona winds.

It's still very fluid and dynamic though.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Sunday, 18 Dec 2022 at 9:09pm

Bang on as always @craig and Swellnet. Brilliant work.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Sunday, 18 Dec 2022 at 9:12pm

Amazing how that place, regardless of what the wind is doing, still always switches back to a late arvo offshore and primetime backlit conditions. It's phenomenal how often it seems to do that. Probably something that hasn't been spoken about is the unfair advantage a surfer has in this current heat format if they score a heat with all the elements combining as opposed to a dogshit onshore heat....doesn't seem theres any sort of sliding scale to the scoring of differing conditions. If u get a dud heat with dud waves, you have no chance of progressing to the finals. The last 3 heats saw some epic wotw contenders purely because the wind swung. the sand kinda cleared and the swell settled and cleaned up. Hardly a fair playing field but props to whoever Pipe decides to choose. I kinda like that too.

Vince Neil's picture
Vince Neil's picture
Vince Neil Monday, 12 Dec 2022 at 12:24pm

what soggydog said. Totally ruins the optic having a man-made eyesore in the middle of that vista. Wonder how the locals feel about the promised rivers of gold being a mirage.

either way i dont think G-land captures the imagination of the younger generation half as much as punting airs or taking selfies.

Also seems like young crew wizz through their once-in-a-life-time Indo trip ticking boxes without bothering to put the time in to learn a wave. If it means paying a local to run interference so they can get to their feet at Padang, then that's a legit tick in their book.

dean maddison's picture
dean maddison's picture
dean maddison Monday, 12 Dec 2022 at 5:38pm

To Island bay . Lip may sound a little sexual to the twisted minority, The Woak surfing league (WSL) deemed that lipline may be more suitable. Maybe. Wouldn't be surprised .

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Sunday, 18 Dec 2022 at 7:36pm