Corona Open Mexico: Forecast Update

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Swellnet Analysis

The first two days of competition have shown that Barra de le Cruz is an impressive swell magnet. It can do a lot with a little.

We've see fun 3-4ft rights wrapping down the sandbank, and more swells of a similar nature are due through the rest of the waiting period, ending with a larger swell arriving for the final day.

Background energy has provided the swells for the first two days, but tomorrow we've got a pulse of mid-period southerly swell from a good polar fetch that fired up west-southwest of Chile last week, followed by the less consistent SW groundswell into Friday afternoon and Saturday morning Mexico time.

Based on the performance of the swell the last two days, we can expect tomorrow's southerly swell to provide 3-4ft+ waves under light offshore wind in the morning. A trough looks to swing winds SE, though without too much strength, through the day and then back to the W/SW through the afternoon cleaning up any bump.

This swell will ease temporarily into Friday morning (local time) ahead of the less consistent SW groundswell building into the afternoon. This was the same swell that provided epic surf in Teahupoo earlier this week, though with the larger distance from the swell source and the south-west direction, it looks to be less consistent and only 3-4ft on the sets.

Saturday morning looks similar in size but easing, then becoming small into Sunday and Monday morning.

Conditions look great both Friday and Saturday with morning north-west breezes, shifting W/SW-SW into the afternoon keeping conditions clean most of, if not all of, the day.

Into Monday afternoon, a small, infrequent background south-west groundswell looks to lift wave heights slightly back to 3ft, but of greater importance is a larger, stronger, long-period south-west groundswell due into the final two days of the waiting period - they being Wednesday and Thursday.

A broad, strong mid-latitude low fired up east of New Zealand on Tuesday and has since generated a significant fetch of gale to severe-gale winds aimed into the Pacific Ocean. This low is much stronger than the one linked to the south-west swell during the middle of the waiting period, and will provide very large surf to Teahupoo (but with less favourable winds) this Friday and Saturday.

The swell will travel across the Pacific and arrive just before the end of the waiting period, building through the second to last day (Wednesday) and likely peaking into the afternoon with strong 5-6ft sets, easing slowly from 4-6ft on the final day of the waiting period.

The only issue unfortunately looks to be local winds, with a surface trough likely to bring onshore E/NE devil winds on Wednesday as the swell fills in, hopefully going more variable on the final day.

We'll continue to keep a close eye on this.

Comments

greg-n.williams's picture
greg-n.williams's picture
greg-n.williams Friday, 13 Aug 2021 at 5:28am

Love this point break. It reminds me of some of the Gold Coast points when they are firing(sans crowds). Hope to see it 6ft + for the finals with offshores.

belly's picture
belly's picture
belly Friday, 13 Aug 2021 at 7:48am

Been watching since 530 this morning, chatter that they'll run finals today tomorrow. Hopefully they hold off based on Craig's analysis.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek Friday, 13 Aug 2021 at 7:58am

Yeh I get the impression they are talking it up on purpose. I reckon they will want to get it out of the way now and not have the surfers sitting around in covid-infested Mexico for another week (under their responsibility at least)

belly's picture
belly's picture
belly Friday, 13 Aug 2021 at 8:03am

Yeah good point, more factors at play during these times. Work the low tide tomorrow / tonight I suppose.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 13 Aug 2021 at 8:04am

Agree.

dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope Friday, 13 Aug 2021 at 3:20pm

What time have they been kicking off each day?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 13 Aug 2021 at 3:22pm

11pm AEST.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 13 Aug 2021 at 3:22pm

Kinda weird seeing the end of the day's competition and start of the next all in one day eh (if staying up late).

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Friday, 13 Aug 2021 at 3:34pm

I reckon. Seems like the days go on forever there.

Jono's picture
Jono's picture
Jono Friday, 13 Aug 2021 at 3:38pm

And the never ending stream of long, fun, rippable point break waves.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Friday, 13 Aug 2021 at 3:59pm

Yep. Going to sleep to the sound of Joe Turpels voice and waking up to Joe Turpels voice can not be a healthy thing!!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 13 Aug 2021 at 4:00pm

Ha.

shoredump's picture
shoredump's picture
shoredump Friday, 13 Aug 2021 at 8:14am

There was a lack of chatter about the unfolding drama during the back to back heats of Cibilic and Coffin. With a loss and a win respectively, Connor secured his top five spot I’m pretty sure. They didn’t mention it in the commentary though

shoredump's picture
shoredump's picture
shoredump Friday, 13 Aug 2021 at 8:53am

My mistake, Morgs was in 4th now 5th

Jono's picture
Jono's picture
Jono Friday, 13 Aug 2021 at 4:25pm

Freeride, looks like you've crunched the numbers... who is getting cut from the tour for next year?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Saturday, 14 Aug 2021 at 8:32am