Corona Open Mexico: Forecast Update
The first two days of competition have shown that Barra de le Cruz is an impressive swell magnet. It can do a lot with a little.
We've see fun 3-4ft rights wrapping down the sandbank, and more swells of a similar nature are due through the rest of the waiting period, ending with a larger swell arriving for the final day.
Background energy has provided the swells for the first two days, but tomorrow we've got a pulse of mid-period southerly swell from a good polar fetch that fired up west-southwest of Chile last week, followed by the less consistent SW groundswell into Friday afternoon and Saturday morning Mexico time.
Based on the performance of the swell the last two days, we can expect tomorrow's southerly swell to provide 3-4ft+ waves under light offshore wind in the morning. A trough looks to swing winds SE, though without too much strength, through the day and then back to the W/SW through the afternoon cleaning up any bump.
This swell will ease temporarily into Friday morning (local time) ahead of the less consistent SW groundswell building into the afternoon. This was the same swell that provided epic surf in Teahupoo earlier this week, though with the larger distance from the swell source and the south-west direction, it looks to be less consistent and only 3-4ft on the sets.
Saturday morning looks similar in size but easing, then becoming small into Sunday and Monday morning.
Conditions look great both Friday and Saturday with morning north-west breezes, shifting W/SW-SW into the afternoon keeping conditions clean most of, if not all of, the day.
Into Monday afternoon, a small, infrequent background south-west groundswell looks to lift wave heights slightly back to 3ft, but of greater importance is a larger, stronger, long-period south-west groundswell due into the final two days of the waiting period - they being Wednesday and Thursday.
A broad, strong mid-latitude low fired up east of New Zealand on Tuesday and has since generated a significant fetch of gale to severe-gale winds aimed into the Pacific Ocean. This low is much stronger than the one linked to the south-west swell during the middle of the waiting period, and will provide very large surf to Teahupoo (but with less favourable winds) this Friday and Saturday.
The swell will travel across the Pacific and arrive just before the end of the waiting period, building through the second to last day (Wednesday) and likely peaking into the afternoon with strong 5-6ft sets, easing slowly from 4-6ft on the final day of the waiting period.
The only issue unfortunately looks to be local winds, with a surface trough likely to bring onshore E/NE devil winds on Wednesday as the swell fills in, hopefully going more variable on the final day.
We'll continue to keep a close eye on this.