Submitted by Craig on Wed, 03/19/2014 - 17:56
Eastern Tasmania Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 19th March)
Best Days: Middle of the day Friday at north-east swell magnets, early Sunday for a small clean SE swell, Monday for a super inconsistent E/NE groundswell
Our fun but inconsistent pulse of E/NE groundswell continued to ease yesterday from 2ft+ across open beaches under offshore winds. Today there was nothing really left with tiny surf across the coast.
This week (Mar 19 - 21)
Tomorrow will remain small, while there's a chance for a small pulse of NE windswell through Friday as winds swing strong offshore with a deepening mid-latitude low moving east across us. Hit up north-east swell magnets for the most from this swell.
This weekend onwards (Mar 22 onwards)
As the mid-latitude low moves offshore through Friday evening, a burst of S/SE gales are forecast to be projected up past our coast, kicking up a weak pulse of S/SE windswell.
The models seem to be overcooking the size from this swell, and I think we'll only see 3-4ft waves max at south swell magnets Saturday morning along with poor S/SW tending E/SE winds.
Sunday will be cleaner but the swell will be easing from a small 1-2ft at swell magnets. This will be ideal for beginners or a quick early morning sesh.
There's been no real change to the very long-range and inconsistent E/NE groundswell expected Monday across the coast. This swell is being generated by Tropical Cyclone Mike drifting slowly south from the Cook Islands region, into a well established trade-flow, some 5,000km away from us (pictured right).
The initial stages of this tropical setup was within our swell window, but New Zealand's North Island is starting to shadow the system, and due to the large travel distance and swell decay, we're only expected to see very infrequent 2ft+ waves across open beaches Monday.
Just as a gauge this swell will be at least twice as inconsistent as the swell just passed from TC Lusi. Winds will be good though and offshore for most of the day.
Longer term there's nothing major on the cards unfortunately, but check back here Friday for an update.