Submitted by Craig on Wed, 03/19/2014 - 13:57
South Australian Forecast (issued Wednesday 19th March)
Best Days: Thursday, Saturday morning down South in protected locations, Monday - Wednesday down South in protected spots
The Mid Coast stated off slow yesterday with a light onshore but a new pulse of W/SW swell expected into the afternoon came in as forecast with 2ft sets breaking across the coast as winds remained light and became variable into the evening.
The South Coast saw moderate amounts of swell with variable winds during the morning, but a fresh S'ly wind came through during the afternoon creating bumpy conditions as the new swell kicked to 3-4ft across the Middleton stretch, with larger 5ft waves out at Waits.
Today a peak in SW groundswell has been seen, with light offshore winds and an easing 2ft of swell on the Mid, while the South Coast is much larger, with 4-5ft waves at Middleton while Waits and other exposed offshore breaks would be maxing in the 6ft range. Conditions were OK but bumpy with an E'ly breeze and this will swing lighter S/SE into the afternoon.
This week (Mar 19 - 21)
Tomorrow is looking excellent across the South Coast as today's swell eases steadily and winds swing offshore and remain so all day, tending variable into the afternoon.
The morning will probably be a bit too big for Waits and Parsons unless you're looking for a challenge, but Middleton and Goolwa will offer great waves with offshore N'ly winds.
Into the afternoon the breaks west of Victor should be more manageable and remain clean into the evening.
Friday will be a write off as a strong onshore change moves through and the swell bottoms out. There's a slim chance for variable winds at dawn, but it's not worth a drive from Adelaide.
This weekend onwards (Mar 22 onwards)
A new S/SW groundswell is due across the South Coast on Saturday generated by a strong polar low that's currently south of WA on the polar shelf. This system is aiming a broad but slightly un-organised fetch of SW gales towards us and will continue to do so through tomorrow will moving east.
A good sized swell will result that's expected to peak at 3-4ft across Middleton with 3-5ft surf at Goolwa, Waits and Parsons as winds swing fresh E/NE during the morning. This will favour slightly protected locations before a strong sea breeze kicks in.
The Mid Coast won't see any real size from this swell at all and is expected to see tiny 0.5ft waves that will then fade into Sunday. Sunday will also be poor down South with a dropping swell and fresh SE tending S/SE winds.
Into next week, one final pulse of medium sized S/SW groundswell is due across the state Monday and Tuesday ahead of some down time over the next week-week and a half.
The groundswell will be a touch smaller than Saturday's pulse but winds should be similar and from the E/NE Monday and Tuesday mornings before S/SE sea breezes kick in.
The reason for the lack of swell from mid-next week onwards is an upper atmoshperic block setting up across southern Australia, with us falling in between two amplifications of the Long Wave Trough, one being in the Southern Indian Ocean and the other being over New Zealand. This isillustrated right, with cold fronts being steered into the Southern Indian Ocean but then away from us under the country and then back up towards New Zealand.
Therefore, make the most of the coming days of swell and favourable winds and check back Friday for another update.