Submitted by Craig on Mon, 03/17/2014 - 18:01
Eastern Tasmania Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 17th March)
Best Days: Tuesday morning, early Monday next week
A small NE windswell built through Saturday but with poor winds, while Sunday started off slow with an easing swell as a change moved through. A late kick in long-range and inconsistent E/NE cyclone swell from TC Lusi was seen though and this peaked this morning at 3-4ft+ across open beaches.
Conditions were average early but a fresh W'ly change cleaned up the swell during the morning with an easing trend seen into this morning.
This week (Mar 17 - 21)
Today's E/NE groundswell will continue to ease into tomorrow as a result of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lusi moving over New Zealand and breaking down late last week. Small clean waves to 2ft or so expected across open beaches before becoming tiny into the afternoon.
For the rest of the week there's nothing significant on the cards besides background levels of E'ly swell and a tiny NE windswell for Friday.
This weekend onwards (Mar 18 onwards)
The weekend will be slow for the most part, but a very very long-range E/NE groundswell is due to arrive later Sunday and peak on Monday across the coast.
The source of this swell is quite similar to the swell seen today from Tropical Cyclone Lusi, that being a strong easterly ridge being squeezed by a tropical depression drifting south into the established trade-flow.
Except, these developments will occur 1-2,000km further east and over the back of New Zealand (pictured right), on the periphery of our swell window.
The only upside is that this tropical setup will persist with strength for over two days and this will help generate a very large E/NE groundswell that's due to lose a lot of size and consistency as it travels towards Australia.
Size wise, we're probably only likely to see very inconsistent 2ft+ sets across open beaches on Monday and with SW tending SE winds, but we'll confirm this on Wednesday.