Submitted by Craig on Mon, 03/17/2014 - 16:10
South Australian Forecast (issued Monday 17th March)
Best Days: Tuesday morning down South, Mid Coast later in the day, Wednesday along both coasts, Thursday South Coast for excellent conditions and an easing swell, Saturday down South, Sunday down South
Saturday started off fun down South with a moderate swell and W'ly winds, but these strengthened during the day leaving only super protected locations with clean conditions.
The Mid Coast saw a stormy wave developing into the afternoon with the strong onshore wind.
Sunday saw great waves down South in protected locations as a stronger SW groundswell peaked and winds held from the W/NW all day. The Mid Coast saw stormy 2-3ft waves for most of the day with terrible conditions.
Today the swell has backed away leaving 2-3ft waves across the Middleton stretch down South, with bigger 4ft sets out at Waits under an early W/NW breeze, and this has held from the West into this afternoon. The Mid also eased back from a sloppy 2ft.
This week (Mar 17 - 21)
There's plenty of swell on the way for us this week with a new pulse of SW groundswell expected this afternoon due to give way to a stronger increase later tomorrow and Wednesday.
This is related to a vigorous polar low that fired up in the Heard Island region late last week and generated a fetch of sever-gale to sub-storm-force W/SW winds in our far swell window. This system pushed slowly east-northeast towards us the last few days under the influence of the Long Wave Trough, with a strong long-range SW groundswell due to arrive later tomorrow and peak Wednesday to a strong 4-5ft at Middleton and 5-6ft+ at Waits. The Mid Coast should also see good but inconsistent 2ft waves later tomorrow and Wednesday morning before easing into the afternoon.
Winds tomorrow morning will be favourable and offshore from the NW across the South Coast, but a shallow SW change is due during the early afternoon.
Come Wednesday the Mid Coast will be clean with a light offshore SE'ly while the South Coast won't be as clean but should be nice with a light variable breeze from the E/SE.
Thursday on the other hand looks excellent down South with an offshore N/NE'ly that should tend variable into the afternoon creating a full day of great waves with an easing swell.
Give Friday a miss as we'll see a small leftover swell and onshore S/SE winds as a surface trough moves in early morning.
This weekend onwards (Mar 22 onwards)
As touched on last update, a good pulse of S/SW groundswell is due to arrive later Friday and peak Saturday, generated by a strong but patchy polar low that will fire up well south of WA tomorrow. This system will push east towards Tassie through the middle of the week with a moderate increase in S/SW groundswell under offshore N/NE winds due Saturday.
Sunday morning will still be clean under a fresh pre-frontal NW'ly and easing swell but a change will wreck the surf into the afternoon.
Longer term there's another good pulse of swell on the cards for early next week but winds look poor and from the S/SE.