Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 17th March)
Best Days: Early Tuesday on the Surf Coast,
Saturday offered great waves across both coasts with a stiff offshore and easing swell from Friday. Winds remained favourable for most of the day creating a clean, full fun day of waves.
Sunday was best on the Surf Coast as winds freshened from the NW and then tended more W/NW into the afternoon with a dropping swell from 3ft while the Mornington Peninsula saw choppy 5-6ft waves.
Today the swell was smaller again and a little under expectations with a stronger N/NW wind at dawn but this has since shifted W/NW leaving the Torquay region with the cleanest waves again.
This week (Mar 17 - 21)
This week is looking excellent for surfing as a couple of good swells fill in with favourable winds.
Tomorrow morning will start out slow and similar to this morning, but a new W/SW groundswell is due to build slowly during the day under fresh NW tending W/NW winds.
Of greater importance is the arrival of a strong and powerful W/SW groundswell later in the day and overnight ahead of a peak Wednesday morning.
This has been and is still being generated by a vigorous polar frontal progression that formed in the Heard Island region late last week and has since pushed up towards us under the influence of the Long Wave Trough.
A very inconsistent but strong W/SW groundswell has resulted that is expected to peak tomorrow morning to 4-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula. The Torquay region will be the only place to really surf early with a W/NW breeze, but a shallow SW change is due late morning with S/SE winds into the afternoon.
Thursday will be great east of Melbourne and Surf Coast beaches with a moderate N/NE breeze that's expected to tend variable into the afternoon with a dropping swell. Come Friday it'll be the Surf Coast that'll be offering the most size and best conditions with an early offshore ahead of another shallow change.
This weekend onwards (Mar 17 onwards)
As touched on last update another good but slightly smaller pulse of SW groundswell is due across the coast on Saturday generated by a polar front firing up well south of WA tomorrow evening and pushing slightly east-northeast towards Tassie through the middle of the week.
The structure of this system won't be especially great and unconsolidated but still a moderate increase in swell is due under favourable NE winds across the Mornington Peninsula and Surf Coast beaches.
A drop in size is then due Sunday as winds strengthen from the NW ahead of a late W'ly change.
Longer term another good pulse of SW groundswell is due next week but this may be associated with onshore winds. We'll review this Wednesday though.
Got the day off work tomorrow so planning a mission somewhere.. Would you expect the swell on the M.P to be in the 8-10ft size or more around the 6-8 size.
Hi Goofy, I'd prob say in the consistent 6-8ft range with bigger bombs near 10ft at times. But the larger bombs were generated a long way away, and hence will be really inconsistent.
No worries, cheers Craig.. Now if only that wind would swing just a little bit more!