Submitted by Craig on Fri, 03/14/2014 - 11:16
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 14th March)
Best Days: Saturday morning, Sunday through Wednesday on the Surf Coast, Thursday everywhere
A good pulse of W/SW swell filled in yesterday with light variable winds across the Mornington Peninsula and morning offshores on the Surf Coast. This provided good waves across most spots before a fresh onshore change developed into the afternoon.
Today a stronger pulse of W/SW groundswell has filled in with good 3-4ft sets on the Surf Coast and 6ft surf on the open beaches east of Melbourne with lighter E'ly winds favouring some breaks over others.
This weekend (Mar 15 - 16)
Today's swell will drop away slightly into tomorrow after a peak this evening, but conditions will be excellent across most spots with moderate to fresh offshore N/NW winds (N'ly on the Mornington Peninsula) ahead of a shift to the W/NW during the afternoon.
A fresh pulse of W'ly swell is due Sunday but with fresh W'ly winds, the Surf Coast will be the only option for a decent wave.
Next week onwards (Mar 17 onwards)
The strong pulse of SW groundswell on the cards for Tuesday next week has been pushed back slightly with the swell due to arrive later in the day and peak Wednesday now.
This swell will be generated as the Long Wave Trough intensifies over us next week, directing a vigorous polar low from the Heard Island region up towards us over the weekend.
Unfortunately the low is expected to stall in our far swell window Sunday night as a cold front sheds off and races towards us early next week, generating an initial medium sized W/SW groundswell for Monday afternoon and Tuesday.
Size wise, we're looking at 3ft to sometimes 4ft waves on the Surf Coast and 6ft on the Mornington Peninsula as winds persist from the north-western quadrant.
Wednesday's longer-range groundswell though is looking to peak in the 4-5ft range on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula under early W/NW winds west of Melbourne ahead of a weak change.
Thursday should be great for both coasts with local offshores and a dropping swell.
Longer term we may see a new swell for next weekend, but we'll review this Monday.
Quick question about the latest model run;
Forecast for Sunday 16/03 12pm Barwon heads 3ft, Torquay 3-4ft. Under WSW swell.
Why are we seeing the model run a greater size in the Torquay area?
Well spotted CM. It's an abberation of the WW3 model that we're unable to control.
Essentially, each location has its own data point and for some reason the Torquay location has one swell train ([email protected] W/SW) for lunchtime Sunday whilst the Barwon Heads location has split the swell into two swell trains ([email protected] WSW, [email protected] W).
Essentially, Torquay is combining the windswell and groundswell together, whilst Barwon Heads is splitting them apart.
We see this happen quite frequently (mainly associated with Southern Ocean frontal passages, when the secondary windswell is from the same direction as the primary groundswell) however I'm perplexed as to why this difference is happening between two locations of such close proximity. That's just one of those unusual quirks about the wave model and the way it outputs this kind of data.
Sweet, thanks Ben.
Interesting outcome. I suppose these models can hide all sorts of things if they're allowed to...
Epic Carpetman, very disturbing!
That was surfing at the Quickie Pro.
Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .