Submitted by Craig on Wed, 03/12/2014 - 11:13
South Australian Forecast (issued Wednesday 12th March)
Best Days: Every morning over the coming period down South, with Thursday morning and Friday afternoon worth a look on the Mid Coast
Small clean waves were seen down South yesterday morning as we fell between swells under light offshores, but a change moved through during the day, writing off the surf into the afternoon. The Mid Coast saw tiny waves that lifted to a bumpy 1-1.5ft during the afternoon with the arrival of a new W/SW groundswell.
Today a mix of stronger W/SW groundswell and SW swell are breaking across the state with an onshore wind down South and OK S/SE winds on the Mid. The swell should pulse to 1-2ft this afternoon on the Mid, while the South Coast should also see a further increase in size.
This week and weekend (Mar 14 - 16)
As talked about the last few updates, an amplification of the Long Wave Trough moving into the Bight and stalling this week will project a series of strong frontal systems up through our south-western swell window.
This will result in medium sized + pulses of SW groundswell from this afternoon through until Monday, with the strongest increase due Friday midday/afternoon to 3-5ft along the Middleton Stretch, 4-6ft at Waits and 1-1.5ft on the Mid Coast.
A secondary lower-period SW swell is due on Sunday though but winds won't be as favourable as the end of this week (when variable tending local offshore winds are expected) with an early fresh W'ly tending W/SW breeze expected.
The front generating Sunday's swell will kick up a windswell for the Mid Coast to 2ft+ or so but with fresh onshore winds.
Next week onwards (Mar 17 onwards)
The Long Wave Trough isn't expected to move off to the east and weaken over the weekend any more, but now strengthen while moving over Victoria next week.
What this will do is up the intensity of the polar frontal activity, with a vigorous polar frontal system expected to develop south-west of WA and push north up towards Victoria from Friday through the weekend and Monday morning.
Winds within this system are expected to reach the gale to severe-gale-force range generating a large and powerful SW groundswell for next Tuesday.
Most of the models are in agreement regarding this scenario, but we'll nail down the size and local winds on Friday.
Hi Craig, Are you able to tell me what degrees the swell should be to get the maximum size into the mid coast SA. Today 12/03/2014 it's a 4.0m sw swell 228 degrees and it's only 2ft on the mid and 4 to 6ft at yorkes. So if you could answer this I would be very happy. There is a 5.6m sw swell @ 233 degrees this coming sunday so will that get in ? How or where can I check these for myself so I can use this info to check other spots to see if it's going to hit them. Is there a page or site you can refer me to ? Hope to hear from you.....
The best swell direction for the Mid Coast is W/SW or straight W'ly so it can fit fairly unobstructed between the Yorke Peninsula and Kangaroo Island.
Using the Mid Coast buoy point for direction isn't probably the best as it's already undergone refraction by the wave model, but looking at the West Coast KI data point would give you a fairer idea on the direction.
We've adjusted the Yorkes data point to represent the size of the slightly protected breaks that people generally surf, ie Pondie, Dalys etc. You can usually add a couple of more feet on this forecast for West Cape/Ethels etc.
What would be amazing is if the Cape du Couedic wave buoy had direction on it, but that will be a while off or may never happen..
Liquid s , different sites have slightly different directions forecast . You arent going to find much clues to breaks optimum angle on the net . That sorta stuff is fairly classified info usually . Actually i have studied the best angle for many waves along the south and western coasts and take a compass along to double check with forecasts and charts too . You can use a cheap compass to make your own observations. Goodluk there
Hi Craig and Caml thanks for your info and I will use it.. I'm off to buy a compass !! Thanks again : )