Submitted by Craig on Wed, 03/12/2014 - 09:18
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 12th March)
Best Days: Thursday morning, Friday morning, Saturday morning, Sunday morning and Monday on the Surf Coast
The surf bottomed out through yesterday, with tiny clean waves across the Surf Coast and better waves on the Mornington Peninsula to 3-4ft during the morning before easing into the afternoon.
Today a new a couple of pulses of W/SW groundswell are filling in with 1-2ft sets on the Surf Coast (under early W'ly winds) and messy 3-4ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula but we should see a stronger increase into the afternoon as winds remain fresh from the SW.
This week and weekend (Mar 12 - 16)
As talked about the last few updates, an amplification of the Long Wave Trough moving into the Bight and stalling this week will project a series of strong frontal systems up through our western swell window.
This will result in medium sized pulses of W/SW groundswell from this afternoon through until Monday, with the strongest increase due Friday afternoon to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft to possibly 8ft on the Mornington Peninsula.
Winds each morning will be good with a light variable and locally offshore wind tomorrow, with a lighter E/NE breeze Friday morning ahead of E/SE sea breezes.
Saturday looks great again across both coasts with light to moderate local offshore winds that will swing W'ly later in the day, while the Surf Coast will be the only option on Sunday as fresh W/NW winds, swing W/SW during the day.
Next week onwards (Mar 17 onwards)
The Long Wave Trough isn't expected to move off to the east and weaken over the weekend any more, but now strengthen while moving over us into early next week.
What this will do is up the intensity of the polar frontal activity, with a vigorous polar frontal system expected to develop south-west of WA and push north up towards us from Friday through the weekend and Monday morning.
Winds within this system are expected to reach the gale to severe-gale-force range generating a large and powerful W/SW groundswell for next Tuesday.
Most of the models are in agreement regarding this scenario, but we'll nail down the size and local winds on Friday.