Submitted by Craig on Tue, 03/11/2014 - 12:04
Eastern Tasmania Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 11th March)
Best Days: Sunday afternoon/evening, Monday
Some fun NE windswell was seen across the coast yesterday, but this has eased back today with the odd 2ft set still breaking at north-east swell magnets under light variable winds.
This week (Mar 11 - 14)
There's nothing significant on the cards for the rest of this week with the current NE swell expected to fade further tomorrow leaving tiny to flat surf across the coast into the end of the week.
This weekend onwards (Mar 15 onwards)
Much more interesting developments are on the cards for the weekend and early next week as tropical developments in the Coral Sea produce a strong pulse of inconsistent E/NE groundswell for later Sunday and Monday.
Currently a strong and broad easterly trade-flow is setup above New Zealand's North Island, with the sea state being fully established after days of persistent 15-25kt+ winds.
This trade-flow will strengthen over the coming days though as Tropical Cyclone Lusi, which currently sits just over Vanuatu drifts south-east and then south towards New Zealand while strengthening, reaching Category 3 by tomorrow afternoon.
What will result is a strengthen fetch of gale to severe-gale E'ly winds on an already active and established sea state (pictured right), generating a strong and powerful E/NE groundswell for the Australian East Coast.
The only negative with this system is that it will move south rather quickly, with the fetch being cut in half as it moves across the North Island on Friday evening, resulting in a rather short-lived pulse of E/NE groundswell for our coast.
This swell should arrive later Sunday and build to an inconsistent 3ft to nearly 4ft by dark, but there'll be moderate levels of NE windswell in the mix as well. Winds look great though for the late session as morning N'ly breezes swing strong W/SW during the late afternoon.
A peak in size is due overnight Sunday, but Monday morning should still reveal solid but inconsistent 3-4ft+ waves early, but a rapid drop to 2ft+ is expected during the afternoon.
Winds will be great and fresh from the W/SW so get out early for the best conditions.
Also in the mix on Monday though will be a moderate S'ly swell generated by a vigorous cold front pushing off the coast Sunday evening and early Monday. We're probably only looking at 3-4ft sets at south swell magnets but this should add some peaky wedges into the mix on Monday morning.
Longer term there's nothing major on the cards, so make the most of later Sunday and early Monday!