South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast (issued Monday 10th March)

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thermalben started the topic in Monday, 10 Mar 2014 at 1:20pm

South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 10th March)

Best Days: Most days: plenty of quality trade swell. Sat/Sun: strong building E'ly swell becoming large at exposed spots, but with difficult winds (most likely Sun). Mon: solid, easing E'ly swell but with improving conditions as a change works up the coast. 

Recap:  Slowly building trade swell from Sat thru' Sun and into today, with mainly moderate to fresh winds from the SE thru' E.

This week (Mar 11-14)

The synoptic chart is quite complex at the moment, but in surfing terms it's actually much more straightforward.

Right now we've got two Tropical Cyclones way up north (TC Gillian in the Gulf of Carpentaria, and TC Hadi in the Northern Coral Sea), plus the recently formed TC Lusi near Vanuatu. And a broad, strong tradewind flow stretching from well east of the dateline through to the Qld coast. 

As has always been anticipated, the two TCs up north won't generate any swell for SE Qld or Northern NSW. So, with just two swell sources in the water - the trade belt, and TC Lusi - we can discuss each event separately.

The trade flow is quite impressive, both in strength, structure and longevity (if we combine both the hindcast and forecast). And one of the good things about these trade swells is that they tend to increase and decrease slowly over time, which draws out each swell event correspondingly.

Right now the waters of the southern Coral Sea are close to what's known as a 'fully developed sea state', which is due to the sustained duration of the trade belt. This means that wave heights are somewhere close to the theoretical upper limit of the swell sizeable to be generated by a fetch of this strength. 

Due to the position of the trade belt, the Sunshine Coast will see the largest wave heights from this current source (4-5ft+), with slowly decreasing size as you head south to the Gold Coast (3-5ft) and then southwards along the Northern NSW (3-4ft) and Mid North Coasts (3ft).

Consequently, we're looking at a peak in size later today and into Tuesday, ahead of a very slow easing trend from later Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday and maybe early Thursday. This easing trend won't be much - open beaches along the Sunshine Coast are very unlikely to drop below 3-4ft - but it's important to note this phase of the trade swell, relative to the overall forecast period.

A secondary intensification of the trades over the coming days (related to TC Lusi) will then provide a renewal in slightly longer period trade swell through Thursday afternoon and into Friday. In fact I think our surf forecast model isn't picking this up very well - it's showing surf heights bottoming out through Thursday and early Friday (ahead of an increase Friday afternoon), when I think we'll actually see this occur 24 hours prior. In any case, expect a kick in size back up into a similar size range as per what we're expecting on Tuesday morning.

Wind wise, along the SE Qld and Northern NSW Coasts we're not expecting much change from the usual E/SE thru' SE trade flow for much of this period. Isolated pockets of lighter S'ly winds are possible but in general only the protected potions will offer clean conditions.

Along the Mid North Coast, winds will be more E/NE but may tend variable through parts of Wednesday and Thursday as a weak southerly change pushes along the southern NSW coast and stalls in and around the Sydney region. E/NE winds will then resume through Friday as another high sets up camp in the Tasman Sea.

This weekend (Mar 15-16)

The biggest feature on the forecast charts is the developing cyclone near Vanuatu. And the good news is that there's been no major changes since Friday's notes, apart form a minor size upgrade. 

We're looking at a rapidly intensifying system over the coming days that's expected to track southwards through the trade belt, with core E'ly wind speeds reaching 70-80kts. Although the supporting ridge and location of the cyclone are very good for Australia's East Coast swell prospects, the only negative (re: surf potential) is the slightly-faster-than-optimal southward track. 

Still, most model guidance has the cyclone undergoing extra-tropical transition during the latter half of this week and tracking to a position west of New Zealand - meaning we'll see only a moderate reduction in its swell generating capacity into the weekend (compared to a complete reduction, if the ex-TC tracked east of New Zealand, as is the more common route).

So what can we expect surfing wise? The peak of the groundswell is due Sunday however we'll see the early stages of new swell fill in on Saturday (that developed just ahead of the cyclone). This should kick up wave heights into the 5-6ft range across most open coasts throughout Saturday.

On Sunday, the bulk groundswell from (ex)-TC Lusi will kick in and we're looking at some pretty hefty sets at exposed stretches, upwards of 6ft and possibly closer to 8ft at times (in fact I wouldn't be surprised if a few swell magnets see bomb sets upwards of this too). Although model data is reasonably evenly split across most coasts (size wise), I have a feeling we'll see the largest surf from this pulse in Northern NSW, with slightly smaller waves in SE Qld and along the Mid North Coast. 

But - it looks like local winds may spoil the party on Sunday. A ridge of high pressure in the Tasman Sea will work with an approaching front from the southwest to direct freshening northerly winds about the coast, mainly in the Mid North and Northern NSW regions. The SE Qld region will probably see light variable winds early morning but northerly breezes are quite likely into the afternoon. Let's re-evaluate in Wednesday's update.

Next week (Mar 17 onwards)

Monday is a mixed bag across the entire region but ultimately we'll see excellent waves in many locations. Sunday's large E'ly groundswell will have peaked and will be slowly easing, but we're still on track for inconsistent 4-6ft waves early Monday morning (maybe a little smaller in SE Qld). However the approaching W/SW change is likely to impact the Mid North Coast by the morning, creating clean condiitons, with a S'ly change spreading northwards during the day. This means early NW winds in SE Qld and Northern NSW ahead of the change - aim for an afternoon paddle at this stage.

Beyond Monday, we're looking at a smaller E/SE swell through Tuesday and maybe early Wednesday from the remnants of (ex)-TC Lusi, originating from its weekend position west of New Zealand. And there's some south swell on the cards for the middle of the week too, stemming from a strong fetch entering the southern Tasman Sea in the wake of Sunday night's front. I'll update these thoughts in more detail on Wednesday.

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Sheepdog commented Friday, 14 Mar 2014 at 2:41pm

Don, what you did above was a passive aggressive backhanded "compliment". Read your post again.

Perhaps if you blokes stop nitpicking on "factoids", it'll help you in the future. Thank god we're not on a boat.... the whole crew bitchin' about factiods, and all I am saying is there's a f* ckn big storm out that way, we gotta go this way...... We'd be dead for sure.....
Don, In hindsight, I should not have written "Roughly 170w".... I should've written 170 to 160 by 25 to 30....... The south Pacific is a big place, and the storm is huge... BUT BIG DEAL... GET OVER IT.... I'm not using that as a get out of jail card..... And yeah, "huey's on my side"...... pfff. All forecasters leave themselves a bit of room... Ben does.... Craig does..... But sheepdog.... well he's full of bs....

Mate, I'm not doin it anymore. As you said, my credibilty has been "watered down". You haven't liked me from the start, Donny. Shame about that. Just wanted sit around the campfire with you boys putting old school and new school together, good music.... but every time I open my mouth, someone calls me a bullshit artist, or a "riddler", like you did yesterday....
Mate, fifth and final time I'm going to try to get a straight answer out of you. This can still be salvaged......Hypothetical - an estimated 15 second period swell.... It's source is ROUGHLY 3500km away..... When will it arrive?

Sheepdog

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donweather commented Friday, 14 Mar 2014 at 2:48pm

I thought I answered your question above. It's a very hypothetical question indeed. But here goes, if the distance from the peak of the swell producing fetch is 3500km away and we assume an average 15 second period for the peak of this swell, then by my calculations it takes approximately 83 hrs for this swell to arrive.

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donweather commented Friday, 14 Mar 2014 at 2:50pm

Now your turn to answer my question for the 3rd and final time................"Please tell us when this TC Lusi swell will arrive and peak, given your theory of 12 hrs behind."

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Sheepdog commented Friday, 14 Mar 2014 at 2:57pm

So you are basically dividing 3500 by 41.69.... Correct?
Yeah, we'll get to Lusi. Just want to cover this mate. Grab a beer...

Sheepdog

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thermalben commented Friday, 14 Mar 2014 at 3:14pm

SD - you have to be careful when you start your travel estimations from. As Don said, it's around 83 hours for a 15 second swell period to travel 3,500km (and that's a mathematical fact).

However, you have to allow time for these swell periods to develop. And this time frame is highly dependent on the synoptic setup - sometimes it can take anywhere between 12-36 hours. This would ordinarily be added on to the travel time.

So, unless you're referencing a wave buoy somewhere south of Fiji that has already recorded 15 second swell periods from this weather system (and are therefore extrapolating the travel time to the East Coast) then you'll have to eyeball the development phase, and allow for a generation lead time.

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Sheepdog commented Friday, 14 Mar 2014 at 3:21pm

Bloody hell, Ben!!!!!!! You stole my thunder....... For gods sake!!!!...... .... Seriously!!!!....... ;)

This what I have been arguing... DON!!! It's not a 15 second swell at it's source!!!!!! You can't just join the dots!!!!!!
Ummm Thankyou ben.... but at the same time, you pr*ck....... :) DAYS and days waiting for this.... Spoiler alert!!!!!! hehehhe.

Sheepdog

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thermalben commented Friday, 14 Mar 2014 at 3:43pm

I dunno SD, Don said "if the distance from the peak of the swell producing fetch is 3500km away" - his reference to the 'peak of the swell producing fetch' is similar to what I'm saying too, I reckon.

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Sheepdog commented Friday, 14 Mar 2014 at 3:50pm

Yes, and my point is your second paragraph, Ben ;

"However, you have to allow time for these swell periods to develop. And this time frame is highly dependent on the synoptic setup - sometimes it can take anywhere between 12-36 hours. This would ordinarily be added on to the travel time."

Added on to the travel time....... Added.... on.... to.... the.... travel..... time.....

Sheepdog

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wellymon commented Friday, 14 Mar 2014 at 3:48pm

IMO everyone here has great expectations and some none.
You can always look at surfcams and forcasts but when you actually get out in the water its sometimes a lot different, compared too....!
I can't believe they ran the snapper pro in that whole day, like Braithy said it was pumpimg and better conditions the next day, well to say the least today was actually like a Groundswell.
Yesterday morning TOS was 5-6ft and real heavy, lids were getting the best, I had my tail between my legs.
I respect everyone's call here, don't get me wrong but really who gives a fucking shit if it is 5ft and the call was 3-4ft, ohhh yeah 10 sec rather than 14 secs. Pretty funny listenening to all the nerds as Southie said, especially when one nerd moans and bitches like fuck when there are no waves.....? FFS
Surfing is not everything in life :) Its pretty cool though eh............. Just look at all the muppets out there cool cunts for sure.

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

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Sheepdog commented Friday, 14 Mar 2014 at 3:54pm

Luv ya work wellymon... Keepin' it real.... Hats off to ya.....

Sheepdog

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donweather commented Friday, 14 Mar 2014 at 4:14pm

thermalben wrote:

I dunno SD, Don said "if the distance from the peak of the swell producing fetch is 3500km away" - his reference to the 'peak of the swell producing fetch' is similar to what I'm saying too, I reckon.

Spot on Ben and that's exactly why I said "It's a very hypothetical question indeed. But here goes, if the distance from the PEAK OF THE SWELL PRODUCING FETCH is 3500km away and we assume an AVERAGE 15 SECOND PERIOD for the peak of this swell."

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donweather commented Friday, 14 Mar 2014 at 4:15pm

So SD, you're not going to answer my question then?

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mitchvg commented Friday, 14 Mar 2014 at 4:24pm

I'm Doggin ya Sdog and backing Don here. You refered to 15sec swell, 18/19th, 4500km and 5-6 days travel time.

I think it's fair enough for us to assume (as we don't know exactly which model run you're refering to and may not even be able to access it if we did) that the 15sec swell you mention (not the developing sea state you were thinking of) is generated by the 20th, and then takes 5 days (until the 25th) to get here. Hence, the confusion about your call.

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wellymon commented Friday, 14 Mar 2014 at 4:30pm

Sheepio Dawgio,
No hats off, just saying it openly how I read all of this, I love reading the techincal side off weather and swell forecasts, Ben and Craig do a fucking great job and IMO they are pretty spot on to any other web forecasters with swell. Its great having other weather heads input which I like, as Ben and Craig can debate it in a very nice way :)
I'm old school, look at a synoptic chart and travel as we had too from coast to coast in NZ, which 80-90% we got good waves.
It's a very different way of looking at synoptics charts here on the east coast of oz and has taken and is still taking me out of my realm. Still don't understand about the MJO's and the balh blah blah's but when we do have good swell that I have noticed in 12 years , is that the whole of Australia is covered by L's or little Lows and for some reason they come from inland and form out off the east coast.......?
I'm probably wrong here but, I read a post of your's a whle back and it sounded similar to what I've always thought with the inland low's etc.

Hahaha blah blah bla TowMan :P, by the way what does that smybol stand for :P is that a Maori fella doing the tongue out at war or what......?

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

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mitchvg commented Friday, 14 Mar 2014 at 4:35pm

Yeah pretty much Towman, same as ;)

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Sheepdog commented Friday, 14 Mar 2014 at 4:36pm

Just a different sorta smile welly.... Tilt your head sideways... See? The little bugger has his mouth open.. The straight line in the "P" is his top lip.... and the loop is his bottom lip..... ;P

Sheepdog

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Sheepdog commented Friday, 14 Mar 2014 at 5:13pm

Ahhhh... Mitch.... Just the man..... ;)...... You and Donny mentioned some numbers.... No riddles here hehe... You said at 11.35am ;
"I assume your 4500km comes from about 27'S 160'W".
You then said "I'm gonna guess that you add 12hrs because the earth isn't flat, like your charts." lol :).... Nice work, mitchy..... funny bugger....

Thing is mitchy, at the very start of this conversation, in only my second comment re' swell on 25th (cant count the comment on locals winds) , at 12.46pm, wed', what were the coordinates of the rectangle that I drew for southy, you, and donny, where I said a storm would be forming around 18th/19th? And Mitch, does 4500km fit into that rectangle?
You see, mitchy, a few comments after that, when we were gabbin' on, I said to donny (and you or anyone else) "roughly 170", because I just assumed you took my "rectangle" into account, and knew that I was generalizing. In hyndsight, I should not have assumed that you knew I was using "roughly 170" to account for the "rectangles region". My mistake... Won't happen again. You can take that to the bank...
But anyway, pretty sure 4500km fits into that rectangle..... AND FIX YOUR DINGS!!!!!! :P

Sheepdog

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Sheepdog commented Friday, 14 Mar 2014 at 5:19pm

Don. I have... Do you recall me saying sunday... early.....when you had yet another go at me.... About naming "secret spots"?....... Ring a bell? Swellnet has swell peaking 6.pm Sat.
here - http://www.swellnet.com/reports/australia/queensland/gold-coast/forecast
What's 6 pm + 12 hours?

Sheepdog

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thermalben commented Friday, 14 Mar 2014 at 5:26pm

Sheepdog wrote: Thing is mitchy, at the very start of this conversation, in only my second comment re' swell on 25th (cant count the comment on locals winds) , at 12.46pm, wed', what were the coordinates of the rectangle that I drew for southy, you, and donny, where I said a storm would be forming around 18th/19th? And Mitch, does 4500km fit into that rectangle? You see, mitchy, a few comments after that, when we were gabbin' on, I said to donny (and you or anyone else) "roughly 170", because I just assumed you took my "rectangle" into account, and knew that I was generalizing. In hyndsight, I should not have assumed that you knew I was using "roughly 170" to account for the "rectangles region".

The longitudinal distance from 170E to 160W (at 25S) is 3017km.

For comparison, the width of the Australian continent is 4100km.

That's one heck of a wide margin you're giving yourself SD.

If I said in my forecast notes that a low pressure system was going to form near Location A, give or take a radius of 1500km, I wouldn't expect anyone to believe me.

You can't be specific but with such broad coordinates. If you want to be precise with your forecasts timings - within a matter of hours - then you really need to state a precise source location (ie 170E, 25S) and then allow for a margin of error around it. I think that's fair.

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thermalben commented Friday, 14 Mar 2014 at 5:32pm

Sheepdog wrote: Swellnet has swell peaking 6.pm Sat. What's 6 pm + 12 hours?

Actually, our model has the peak overnight (12am Sunday morning, [email protected]).

But.. it's just a model forecast.

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mitchvg commented Friday, 14 Mar 2014 at 5:38pm

Interesting that in this case, the peak period and peak height are at the same time, not your stereotypical groundswell

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thermalben commented Friday, 14 Mar 2014 at 5:43pm

Nah that's very typical of trade swells (of which there's still be expected to a strong underlying signal anyway this weekend, albeit from a more distance source than earlier in the week).

More often than not, a decent trade swell event will see swell periods building slowly over the course of a day or two past the Hsig peak (often related to a slowly retreating fetch).

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donweather commented Friday, 14 Mar 2014 at 5:55pm

mitchvg wrote: Interesting that in this case, the peak period and peak height are at the same time, not your stereotypical groundswell

That's because Lusi has been spraying out swell for a few days now and hence as I indicated somewhere on this forum a few days agao to Ben et al, I think there's going to be multiple swell trains in the water come late Saturday and into Sunday morning, and even to some extent Sunday afternoon. 5-6ft @ 11-13 second swells which were created earlier on in Lusi southward track (say around Thursday morning) with 6-8ft 13-15 second swells also pulsing through which were created overnight last night (Thursday night) and into this morning.

So for my mind, the models have struggled to resolve these mutliple swells in the water as the model perceives them from the same source, which they kinda are but are from two different time steps, if the above makes sense?

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Sheepdog commented Friday, 14 Mar 2014 at 5:56pm

Ben, this is what happens when people just see one statement, and comment on that...... Yes, the "rectangle" is the area where the storm is forming, but if you had've taken in the whole conversation, the "rectangle"also accounts for the southern flank of the storm which entails a massive fetch. I stated this at 2.10 pm yesterday. The "rectangle" is the fetch/swell producing side of the storm, unlike the northern "dead area"....... Give these coordinates for a storm and associated fetch, I'm sure people would "believe you".
And the fetch between this low and high? On the 19th? What.. the size of NSW? The size of NSW and QLD? http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast1.php?type=rain&region=swp&tim=144

I said..... 13 days before the event, at wed 11.35am ; "Huey may have a 15 second interval long distant present on the way for 25 march". That's all... Simple as that.... All hell has broken loose.... :)

Sheepdog

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mitchvg commented Friday, 14 Mar 2014 at 6:09pm

SD I'm not cookin ya on this point, "I didn't accuse you of not being able to count" i said.

I took your generalisation as it was meant. "I assume your 4500km comes from about 27'S 160'W". It's pretty obvious the storm we're talking about.

Those comments were my train of thought in trying to justify your generalisation. And trying to see if your +12hr theory had been lost in that generalisation.

I thought your point might have been that people (maybe including Don) measure from the closest point that fetch is generated at (170W in this instance), and actually it should be measured from the furtherest part of the fetch. Therefore, you add 12hrs travel time to most forecasts you see.

But you brought up the roughly 4500km. So you were already measuring from the furtherest part of the fetch. If your goal was to make this point (the one just above), you would've used 3600km. I ruled that theory out. And came up with the map one...

What I am cooking you about is the fact that it was obvious that we were just talking about travel times, assuming that the 15sec swell was already in the water. Because your words were
"for a swell to come in from 170w.... about 5 to 6 days"
This translates to
'travel time of 5-6 days, over 4500km' (giving you the benefit of the generalisation there with the 170W=4500KM).
and does not translate to
'if you include the development of the seas, travel time of 5-6 days, over 4500km'

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mitchvg commented Friday, 14 Mar 2014 at 6:24pm

to be fair, the graphical forecast shows the peak at 6pm, and I do remember SDog talking about Sun am.

Anyway, so the line between groundswell & strong tradeswell is blurry?

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mitchvg commented Friday, 14 Mar 2014 at 6:33pm

Well not anymore if you look at Byron buoy!

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Sheepdog commented Friday, 14 Mar 2014 at 7:17pm

Mitch, firstly, my 'local winds" comment..Just wanna get that out the road first - I was being a "dick".. Pretty obvious dick too... And it's a fair punt, sw to se, like I said....

Now, Mitch, at no stage, NO stage, did I say, there would be a 15 second swell IN EXISTENCE, on the 19th. I said it will be "produced... from the 19th onwards"... Not a riddle..... Can't see how that can be a riddle..... Go back and have a look mate (wed 2.10pm)
Now, if people wanna nit pick that, fine.... Dictionary says produced means "manufactured". So,,, no riddles... the swell will be manufactured from the 19th onwards......... It will be "brewing" from the 19th....Capiche? I also wrote on the 13th 3.42pm, "swell source beginning 19thish'"..... That the source of the swell will be starting? The start of a swell.... Swell production.... Is that too freudian?
I also said swells "work their way in", Mitch.. It's not a case of BAM theres a 12second swell........ Magic!!!
If people want to get a ruler, join the dots,and assume a 15 second swell is in existence on the 19th from what I said, and then calculate an arrival on the 22nd, good luck to them. When chatting to Don, I knew that I NEVER said the 15 second swell was in existence on the 19th. But he refused to answer my question re' the maths at that stage. My "the maths is flawed" comment to Don was because I knew he was calculating an established 15 second swell from the 19th.... (I haven't lost you yet , have I, Mitch?)

This is where Bens "stole my thunder" fact comes into it.....

Ben said ""However, you have to allow time for these swell periods to develop. And this time frame is highly dependent on the synoptic setup - sometimes it can take anywhere between 12-36 hours. This would ordinarily be added on to the travel time."
Yeah, that's right...... What... maybe 12HOURS, Mitch?

So, Mitch, what it all boils down to is ; my five to six day call includes "brew time"... Do you know what I'm saying?

Mate, If I knew doing a fun call on a potential swell was gonna take a day out of my life sitting here defending myself, I wouldn't have done it. Mitchy.... I'm going back to "wax on"...... :)

Sheepdog

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mitchvg commented Friday, 14 Mar 2014 at 8:09pm

I'm gonna go boil down a brew right now

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wellymon commented Saturday, 15 Mar 2014 at 12:47am

Sheepdog wrote: Just a different sorta smile welly.... Tilt your head sideways... See? The little bugger has his mouth open.. The straight line in the "P" is his top lip.... and the loop is his bottom lip..... ;P

Left or right....?

P or upside down d.

:P or

:q

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

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donweather commented Saturday, 15 Mar 2014 at 6:44pm

This spectral analysis shows the two swells I was talking about above.

http://new.mhl.nsw.gov.au/data/realtime/wave/Station-byronbay

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mitchvg commented Saturday, 15 Mar 2014 at 11:14pm

EFF me ded look at it now

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gggiiibbbo commented Sunday, 16 Mar 2014 at 8:42am

Wow - the froth over this swell is pretty full on!
I can't get away out of town, like a few people I know, so it's my local or nowhere.
Which is currently a fat, straight 5ft with 40 people out - it's total rubbish! Not to mention dangerous due to the mix of adrenalin & bodies.
I think sometime the images people form in their mind when they read a forecast aren't quite the same as the reality staring them in the face...

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southey commented Monday, 17 Mar 2014 at 3:42pm

OMG ....

With all this energy invested into this thread ... I'm not surprised that the swell period jumped 0.2 of a Sec , as a result of the cyber activity alone in these walls .

SD , you must have me confused with someone who gives a fuck about the accuracy of long range forecasts ....

At no stage did i have a go at your ability , i just mentioned " tongue in cheek " , that it was a
" Hail Mary " .. statistically speaking ... as for knowing the rhythms of your chosen area ... well of course i would never question that .

I did mention the time it would take for the Cyclone to interact with the already in state sea condition . As honestly , i don't usually have to deal with that much in these southern parts as most systems match each other for intensity .... atleast to produce a 13 sec wind swell ;-).

Mitch , i don't look at the models with huge confidence beyond a week when it comes to the MJO , its more of a logic of which would suit the balance / rhythm of the spectral chart .
ie very rarely will it make two passes within the same quadrant at equal strength . Without actually surfacing or reaching back into the circle of unpredictability / or shall we say indecipherable signature present .
Stranger things have happened , and at the moment the whole Pacific is in transition .
just didn't look right ... especially with the last Kelvin wave still in motion .

" SA's Reserve Capacity "

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Sheepdog commented Monday, 17 Mar 2014 at 4:43pm

Gday, southy... Hope you got a few, wherever you are... Just read you post.... Interesting....Don't know why you've "got your bitch on".
Mate, I know you weren't having a go at me... I just scrolled through this quagmire, and I really can't see why you would have your nose outa joint. I never once had a go at you, either mate..... Not once.... Even where I said to you I got my "sulk on", I put a smiley face icon next to it so you'd know I was joking.... And the "takng a punt" comment was directed at Don, re' local winds on the 25/3.....
Southey, you write "SD , you must have me confused with someone who gives a fuck about the accuracy of long range forecasts ."
Well ,southy, your rather technical comments and questions 11/3 -10.34pm, 13/3- 6.32pm, 14/3 -10am seem to indicate that you do "give a fuck"...
It's all good, southy. Chillax man.... I respect your knowledge........
As for Don and I, we got together, cracked a bottle of Jack, yelled and bashed eachother, then said "luuv yaaa maaaate", at 2 in the morning.......
Mid last week, "the boys" thought it was gonna peak Sat evening.... I stuck to my guns with my early sunday call.... Now, southey, I could brag and carry on like a fuckwit, but I wont. I'll even be blatantly honest.
"The boys" call thurs/early friday was 6.00pm ish'. That's what the graph said, Even Mitch noted it with his "to be fair" comment.
I said early sunday... But..... BUT!!!!! I thought it would peak around 5 to 6 am........
So in the washup, with the swell peaking at around 1.30am, "the boys" were 7 1/2 odd hours out, and I was 3 1/2 odd hours out..... I was still out.......
Cheers, Southey.....

Sheepdog

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southey commented Monday, 17 Mar 2014 at 5:56pm

SD ,

I think you've got confused at the use of my " expletives " , its just the tradesman in me to drop one or two , they weren't in capitals .....

I should have put it ACCURACY in bold when i said about LRF . Its fluid all these systems so for myself , i take even what the experts say with a grain of salt ....

The reason i addressed you is because of this post :

" Sheepdog commented Friday, 14 Mar 2014 at 2:10pm

Yep, ok don.... You're right. Your spot on. No doubt about it. My credibilty is in absolute tatters... 170w is not 4500 kn away. I am totally wrong. 164w is no where near it. I am a sham, a wannabee. I have no idea. You are way more skilled than me. You always will be...
Even though you never answered my question re' travel time, nor did southey, nor did mitch, I have no doubt you would have the correct answer.... " .

The reason being , I was trying to answer , it may not have been correct , atleast in my understanding . But i did answer ..... As there was alot of Talk of people not answering i thought i would try and clarify .....
I also was trying to tie in with, What Mitch was referencing with the MJO driving these systems .
The longevity of this upcoming system is due to this possible transfer in Equatorial Pacific , due to the ongoing WWB . I like many others are here to talk & learn , not to talk up accuracy or whatever .... Don't forget Don does this as Hobby / Living ? / pastime , and takes it very serious hence his continous efforts , clarifications and questioning ....
As i said i don't give a damn how late or whatever , as like you i won't be in the water for this ....

" SA's Reserve Capacity "

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Sheepdog commented Monday, 17 Mar 2014 at 6:57pm

Cheers, Southey.. I while back , 12/3, I gave a compliment to a few guys here; "When it comes to forecasting, I'd say you, mitch, and ben, craig and co' in music terms are like those awesome dj's - incredibely skilled, a mass of electronic influences, precise...
I'm more like Willie Nelson. ;) Got me guitar, tried and true old style. And "real" country always hits the mark :)"

Southey, I'd include Don and you in "and co' " :)
And I stick by my analogy.
Being pretty new here, When I gave my "old style" forecasts on this swell just gone, AND my 12/3 11.35am forecast on a swell I believed (and still believe) will occur sometime around the 25th, it seemed that a heck of alot of bloggers lined me up like the "new kid at school"... Semantics, disbelief, neverending questions being fired from all angles.... People questioning my "credibility".... A baptism of fire, so to speak... The working class non university trained 1/2 shaven deckhand v the bachelors of oceanography - "We'll get this bastard with "big words" " ;)
Gripping stuff worthy of a reality tv show ( yes, I am trying to be humorous :0) )
Anyway, as I said, this call on the 25th is my last... I hereby retire with a pretty good record for an old sea dog. I'll still be blogging and being a dickhead.... Good fun....
But I have learnt a couple of things.... 1 - Don and I have slightly different methods of coming to roughly the same answer.... We were both a few hours out with this last swell, which really is pretty good...... His maths ( well not his maths but common physics) is accurate. The reason I give a longer arrival time than Don and many others using the "join the dots and divide by x method" , is because I look at a map slightly earlier, and include the time that the so called swell is "developing", or "brewing", as I wrote. An old habit from my prawn trawler days......
And 2 - Well I already knew this - always stick with your gut...
It might've been you southeythat called my 25th march swell a "hail mary". Nah, mate..... Years and years of watching the monsoon trough made me call it, because I have seen this sorta shit before....
Bart Cummings can just look at a horse.... He knows...... Never had a "degree".... Yeah, he gets it wrong sometimes, but shit man, he knows his horses....
Anyway, been waffling long enough, bored ya shitless, dinner time.......... See ya around southey....

Sheepdog

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donweather commented Monday, 17 Mar 2014 at 8:27pm

SD, if ya don't mind me asking, how old are you?

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upnorth commented Monday, 17 Mar 2014 at 8:29pm

So did we decide what's going to happen on the 25th then? Haha I couldn't give two fucks and I dont even know where you are talking about but snoop don't think the swellneters rounded on you or lined you up, there's just a lot of people who know their shit on here ( I'm not one) so if someone starts blowing their own trumpet, which you do a wee bit, they generally get called out on whatever they are saying and sometimes a bit of banter ensues. Don't take it personally. You've got plenty to contribute and some decent knowledge some of which I understand so keep at it big fella.

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wellymon commented Monday, 17 Mar 2014 at 11:36pm

SD is probably around 17,352 days old
:)
Close?????? SD

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

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Sheepdog commented Tuesday, 18 Mar 2014 at 9:14am

Wellymon, 17440.... Get your act together....... ;) Didn't like my joke the other day in wax off? Don't blame you......
Southey. .... Mate, enough passive aggresive bullshit....... I'm an old C***.... Seen this sorta shit before too... But don't take it personally..... Reckon you had a bad case of mondayitis.
Fuck, said I was a bit out with arrival time, and local winds. I aint on Louie Armstrong ;)

Sheepdog

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wellymon commented Tuesday, 18 Mar 2014 at 10:35am

Was I that close Sheepio????
Really or R U just having me on.
I have actually nailed that call before in the pub with how old people are in days:)
You aren't old at all.
At least you can still ran around the paddock barking those sheep into position.

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

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Sheepdog commented Tuesday, 18 Mar 2014 at 4:01pm

Wellymon... You weren't far off, man...... Very good.. Impressive.... I could be a cynic, and bring up the fact that here and there I've dropped a few subtle hints ( schooling, generation of surfers I surfed with when young etc)...... BUT, I wont be a cynic, and take your word that it was a stab in the dark.... Very close, Wellymon........ Very VERY close :) Luv ya work
BTW.... This old dog lead a "Bon Scott" type lifestyle for quite a while. Had a 15 year long fuckn awesome party........ So, the body might be 17440 days old, but it feels more like 21205.... ;)
Ohh, and I played this stupid freekn game called rugby league...... What a stupid thing to do......

The old dog now goes for pleasurable swims in the dam, growls at the younger dogs to get more "chum"..... mmmm beef and kidney chum.... mmmm grrr!!!!!...., and he just lays on the porch lickn his own balls before falling asleep, running and barking in his dreams....... :p

Sheepdog

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wellymon commented Tuesday, 18 Mar 2014 at 4:34pm

Classic
:P
;q
;}
:=>?
Pretty funny Sheepio, I used to be able to do that when I was doing lots of Yoga. Its fucking hard trust me.

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

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wellymon commented Tuesday, 18 Mar 2014 at 4:37pm

Well I couldn't get that far but, A south African friend taught me to say this in a South African voice,
"Right on the Tip Mate".

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

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goofyfoot commented Tuesday, 18 Mar 2014 at 5:48pm

Sheepdog there are plenty of great forecasters on this site (I'm not one), you just seem to be the only one who likes pumping ya own tyres up a lot.. No one gives a rats if your more accurate at calling a swell peak by 4.25 hours. I like reading what your saying as I'm trying to learn things. Just tone down the self-congratulations a bit eh! This ain't a dick measuring comp

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mitchvg commented Tuesday, 18 Mar 2014 at 6:37pm

I guess it's easy to think of the MJO as distinct entity that always just rolls around, "off it's own bat". But it is just a pattern that's recognisable by matching a bunch of different observations together, not necessarily implying anything at all huh. That's kind of taking a philosophical step back; e.g. how do we know the sun will rise tomorrow, just cos it has every other day...

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Sheepdog commented Tuesday, 18 Mar 2014 at 7:11pm

Goofyfoot.... FFS get over it.... This thread was dead and buried, and we all moved on to the 14/3 forecast. But certain folk just can't let it go.... You're the only bloke ( well one other) that considers me admitting being innacurate about a swell arrival, AND innacurate about local winds as "self congratulations".
I am starting to understand Uplifts contempt......
Go back to the start , goof. My first comments were compliments to Craig, Ben, Mitch.... My Willie nelson comment was an attempt at humor, not a trumpet blow.
And Upnorth... If people are gonna "call me out" over a simple prediction, and yet they are people that in your words "know there shit", Why the fuck were they asking ME questions? They know their shit right? They should just say "nah mate... you're wrong and this is why".....
Get over it boys.... I am....
ps - Don, You and I fired up the most at the start, yet we were also the first to calm down. I really respect you for that... No shit.... :)

Sheepdog

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wellymon commented Sunday, 23 Mar 2014 at 7:24pm

Sheepdog wrote: Don the western part of the "rectangles" fetch "so to speak", only really establishes itself on about the 19th, thanks to a small split off high near nth NZ..... This area is alot closer to Australia, and will produce a standard 3 footish' 12 second swell on 21st,22nd etc... But of more interest is what is behind it......
The swell to hit THIS sunday will be produced today onwards at roughly 170e/25s.....

The long distance 15 second stuff I'm talkin' about will be produced at 170w25s.... from the 19th onwards...
So if it usually takes about 3 to 4 days for a swell to work it's way in from 170e ( like we are seeing this week) , it must surely take longer for a swell to come in from 170w.... about 5 to 6 days.... Maybe it'll start to filter in on the 24th, But I'd expect it'll be there for sure on the 25th..
You asked me to take a punt on the winds, Don...... Come on mate... Maaaaaate...
AV a go, just for old times sake ;)

Well there ya go good call Speedhog :)
That call was many a moon ago too. Nice one.

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

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wellymon commented Sunday, 23 Mar 2014 at 7:29pm

That was 12 days ago.......! 12.03.2014
Like a dog running and catching frisbees on the beach.

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .