Submitted by Craig on Mon, 03/10/2014 - 09:21
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 10th March)
Best Days: Tuesday east of Melbourne, Thursday onwards
The weekend started off average across most spots with a fresh E/SE breeze and small-moderate swell favouring more protected spots east of Melbourne.
A new long-range and inconsistent SW groundswell pulsed during the afternoon ahead of a peak overnight and steady drop through Sunday. Winds swung offshore from the N/NE across most spots on Sunday morning (N/NW around Torquay) creating clean fun waves with an inconsistent 3ft+ swell on the Surf Coast and 6ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula during the morning before easing into the afternoon.
Today there wasn't much size left across the coast with small clean 1-2ft waves on the Surf Coast and 3ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula. A weak onshore change is expected during the day as the swell continues to ease.
This week and weekend (Mar 10 - 16)
There's plenty of consistent W/SW groundswell expected over the coming week and weekend all linked to the Long Wave Trough.
Firstly though, tomorrow will remain small, with the Mornington Peninsula fairing the best with early N/NE winds ahead of a shift to the N/NW during the day linked to a late W/SW change.
From Wednesday onwards medium levels of W/SW groundswell is expected as front after front is aimed from the Southern Ocean, up towards and through the Bight under the effect of the Long Wave Trough. An amplification of the LWT is currently just over the South West of WA but will move into the Bight mid-week and stall there into Friday.
Size wise, the Surf Coast should ebb and pulse between around 3ft, while the strongest pulse of groundswell is due Friday afternoon and Saturday morning to a bigger 3-4ft. The Mornington Peninsula should see surf around 6ft with larger bomb sets through the same Friday afternoon and Saturday morning period.
Local winds will be the thing to work around and Wednesday will be worth a miss as, although winds will be from the West early on the Surf Coast, the swell wouldn't have really kicked yet. A fresh SW change will then write off all other options as the day progresses.
From Thursday onwards conditions should be good each morning across both regions, with variable and local offshore winds Thursday and Friday morning's, while a straighter N'ly on Saturday will favour the beaches on the Surf Coast instead of the reefs.
Sunday doesn't look anywhere near as good as a fresh W'ly change moves through leaving the protected reefs on the Surf Coast with OK waves early before winds swing more W/SW during the day.
Next week onwards (Mar 17 onwards)
The Long Wave Trough will move off to the east while weakening over the weekend and this will result in the frontal activity quietening down but also approaching more from the south-west with a swing in swell direction to the SW expected next week.
There's couple of medium sized SW groundswells on the cards as well as a long-range and stronger SW swell mid-week, but we'll review this Wednesday.