Submitted by Craig on Wed, 03/05/2014 - 15:59
Western Australia Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 5th March)
Best Days: Thursday morning, Friday morning (excluding Gero), Monday morning, Tuesday morning
We fell in between swells yesterday morning with less than favourable S/SE winds around Margs and tiny cleaner waves further north. Geraldton saw a lot more size but winds were a bit of a problem.
A good pulse of new SW groundswell filled in during the afternoon though and peaked this morning to 5-6ft+ in the South West, 1-2ft around Perth, while Gero saw 3-4ft waves early, but this should of kicked further during today.
Conditions were much better with offshore winds this morning but these will swing more S/SE and strengthen into this afternoon.
This week (Mar 5 - 7)
Today's swell should ease off into the late afternoon and further tomorrow morning, but winds will be good again and offshore from the E/SE (E/NE around Gero) creating great conditions.
A late kick in new SW groundswell due Friday may be seen tomorrow but it's not worth holding out for with average winds into the afternoon.
This strong SW groundswell that's due to peak into the middle of the day in the South West, and later further north has been generated by a vigorous polar low firing up just west of Heard Island at the start of this week.
Satellite observations confirm a fetch of 35-55kt SW winds being aimed towards us (shown right) and since then the low has moved slowly east along the polar shelf while weakening.
The low is currently to our south-southwest and will move out of our swell window this evening leaving the groundswell to travel up towards us.
The Margaret River region should peak in the 5-6ft range with 8ft bomb sets, while Perth should see 2ft waves into the afternoon and a late kick to 4-5ft+.
Winds are expected to be great around Margs and Perth and offshore during the morning (swinging S/SW during the afternoon), but Gero unfortunately will see onshore S/SW winds all day.
This weekend onwards (Mar 8 onwards)
A drop in swell is due into Saturday and winds will unfortunately remain average and linger from the S/SW-SW.
Into Sunday a strong SW groundswell is due to build across the state owing to an intensification of the Long Wave Trough strengthening to our south-west over the coming days while slowly moving east.
What this will effectively do is steer polar fronts (shown right) up directly behind it (to the west), towards us, with a couple of systems piggybacking on top of each other originating from west of Heard Island.
A peak in the 6-8ft range is due later Sunday across the South West, with 10ft bombs near dark at swell magnets, while Perth should see 2-3ft sets on dark and into Monday morning. Gero should see the swell peaking Monday morning in the 5-6ft range.
Conditions won't be too pretty Sunday as the swell builds with S/SW winds, but Monday should see offshore E/SE winds across most of the state, creating excellent conditions.
Longer term, another solitary front is expected to be aimed up towards us Monday next week, generating a reinforcing S/SW swell pulse for Tuesday, slowing the easing trend in size from Monday.
Longer term there's nothing significant on the cards until the end of next week, but we'll look at this again on Friday.